News trading:
1. News generally has diminishing market impact over time, especially if it's the same piece of info (ETF flows, GBTC to Coinbase, German gov, Gox, SEC crusade, etc. - eventually gets stale and priced in).
2. Telegraphed news gets priced in more efficiently than unexpected events e.g. "X is gonna happen on Y date in the future" is more likely to be priced in than "BREAKING: Y just happened."
3. The market's reaction to news is often more telling than the news itself.
Rough blueprint:
Bad news absorbed in a bullish market = Trend continuation
Bad news absorbed in a bearish market = Trend reversal
Good news absorbed in a bullish market = Trend reversal
Good news absorbed in a bearish market = Trend continuation
These work especially well if there's a clear preceding pattern e.g. Bad news = down, Bad news = down, Bad news = down, and then Bad news = up.
As always, plenty of context and nuance around this stuff, but a decent way to start thinking about it IMO.
I’ll just summarise (long post) my thoughts on the celeb bullshit.
Over the last 4 days coincidentally a number of celebrities have all launched memecoins.
This has raised the debate on whether this is a positive (onboarding) or a negative (pump and dump) for the space.
Historically celebrity involvement has always been a terrible sign. There isn’t any project in operation that would be deemed a success. They all went to 0, some in hours, some in days, the majority not even making it to months.
You should take it that all celebrities are using the current very popular buzzword of “memecoin” to make a quick cash grab. The same went for simply “crypto” in past cycles and “NFT”s most recently. It snowballs with more and more people seeing the opportunity and rushing to grab the bag.
If a celebrity immediately launches a coin, I don’t care who they are, they should be told to fuck off.
If a celebrity launches a coin and says a few buzzwords on how much they love crypto they should be told to fuck off.
They should not be given a platform AFTER they’ve come to the space with a coin.
It’s predatory, we’re giving them a voice and they’ve set up with exactly the same intentions as previously. People are and deserve to be pissed.
Then it comes to the more productive side which is “what if we should actually trust these celebrities?”
Then come to the table WITHOUT a token to promote, do your time, show some understanding, ask questions in a productive manner, learn, get involved, join spaces. Don’t be a greedy disingenuous cunt.
People were asking “well how do we get these celebs onboarded?” - why are they any different to us?
A celebrity would do so much better for themselves if they came to the table saying “the dog wif a hat is cute so I bought some” - that would actually resonate.
Just buy crypto, explore the space, be a part of the culture. If you can’t or haven’t done that I can’t trust you and I have to assume you have the worst intentions.
A celebrity’s onboarding process is no different to what any of us went through. We buy, we get fucked, we buy more, we find a community, (we get addicted), we buy more, we survive.
There’s no positives from the current environment we’re simply providing people with a platform to fuck people over and profit from their own names.
You can’t retrospectively fit adoption or a positive on to a situation that has started with a predatory launch.
There might be an argument that we can use this as an opportunity for adoption, but it isn’t from the current situation.
@cobie talked about risk as an evaluation method and I think that’s also very true. If you’re just doing something without risk (aside from reputation - which for many of these “celebrities” is entirely irrelevant anyway) then it’s not worth anything.
Athletes paid in crypto, celebrities with involvement in projects are far more worthy of discussion than these passing visitors.
Fuck the cash grabbing token launching D-list celebrity tourists.
I want people who want to shoot the shit about crypto, people who have some skin, who have some time, and who are a net positive for the space.
Extraction is not adoption. We’ve done this dance too many times.
@art_xbt Eth’s first sign of strength since weeks shouldn’t be faded imo. but maybe boring weekend and some choppy week ahead, so I’m taking it slow, let it develop and bidding
@DibbleDunk@donalt He‘s analyzing the current price action. Even though he didn’t really change his stance, view of the market can change as market gives different signals time by time. Instead of talking bs you should appreciate honest traders which don’t always tell you what you wanna hear
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Bots:
- BonkBot (also good for copy trading)
- Fluxbot (nice UI, fast & reliable)
Probably the fastest and easiest way to buy/sell/snipe coins. Excellent for mobile users.
I remember a time, when memes dumped so hard on BTC dips. But you need to look at them different: No risk of product fails, no sell pressure from unlocks, no VC's (mostly), organic growth. So the "risk" they had in the past, is their advantage now. Times changed
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