FrontRowBrian™ 🇺🇸 ₿

Waste Management Consultant. investor📈. Insights into fight sports, sports business and finance

[FrontRowBrian™ 🇺🇸 ₿ @FrontRowBrian]

Get 3 months of Full Self-Driving (Supervised) or $400 off Solar Panel installation with my referral link. $TSLA. @tesla. https://t.co/jbyN73r2io

[FrontRowBrian™ 🇺🇸 ₿ @FrontRowBrian]

@CGasparino @nvidia paragraphs, charlie.

[FrontRowBrian™ 🇺🇸 ₿ @FrontRowBrian]

$STUB — Morgan Stanley reiterates Equal-weight, $7 PT following StubHub's Q3 results. Strong EBITDA growth, but the underlying ticketing business isn't growing nearly as quickly as the headline numbers suggest.

Q3 results:
• Gross merchandise sales: $2.62B, +7.6% y/y, 3% below estimates.
• Revenue: $502M, +7.2%, 4% below estimates.
• Take rate: 19%, flat versus expectations.
• Adjusted EBITDA: $124M, +84%, slightly ahead of estimates.
• EBITDA margin: 24.7%, up from 14.4%.

The EBITDA improvement was impressive, largely driven by lower sales and marketing expenses. But revenue growth was likely flat excluding the World Cup contribution.

The bigger concern is 2027.

StubHub raised its 2026 GMS guidance modestly but maintained its $400–420M adjusted EBITDA outlook.

Morgan Stanley estimates:
- 2026 EBITDA: $411M
- 2027 EBITDA: $463M (+13%)

The bank expects reported GMS growth of just ~1% in 2027 as StubHub laps World Cup ticket sales and faces tougher MLB comparisons. A potential MLB lockout presents additional downside.

The problem: Consensus expects nearly 20% EBITDA growth next year, but Morgan Stanley believes achieving that requires meaningful success from two emerging businesses:

1) Direct ticket issuance, expanding beyond resale.
2) Advertising, creating another revenue stream from StubHub's platform.
- Neither opportunity is sufficiently proven yet.

Competition in secondary ticketing, potential regulatory restrictions on fees and disruption from AI-powered ticket purchasing remain additional risks.

Takeaway: StubHub is demonstrating real operating leverage, but cost discipline can't indefinitely compensate for weak underlying transaction growth.

The World Cup provided a significant temporary boost. The question is what replaces it in 2027.

Morgan Stanley remains cautious despite the stock's depressed valuation, with a $7 PT implying approximately 24% upside from $5.65.

[FrontRowBrian™ 🇺🇸 ₿ @FrontRowBrian]

$MSFT — Morgan Stanley previews Ignite 2026 (Nov. 17–20). Maintains Overweight, $650 PT (~25% upside).

The thesis: Microsoft is positioned to monetize enterprise AI across the entire technology stack, not just through Azure infrastructure.

Recent results support that view:
• Azure growth accelerated to 48% y/y.
• M365 Commercial Cloud grew 18%.
• Copilot daily users +50% q/q.
• Customers consuming Copilot credits +75%.
• Foundry revenue more than tripled y/y.
• Multi-model agent customers increased 5x.

What Morgan Stanley wants to see at Ignite:

• Copilot: More paid seats, higher-priced subscriptions and usage-based AI agent monetization.
• Foundry/Fabric: Deeper integration of AI models with enterprise data, driving additional Azure consumption.
• Security: New revenue opportunities from managing AI agent identities, permissions and compliance.
• Infrastructure: Better GPU utilization and custom Maia silicon to improve AI economics.

Morgan Stanley sees potential for high-teens to low-20s revenue growth and sustained EPS growth above 20%.

Azure demand is already exceptionally strong. The bigger opportunity is monetizing everything built on top of that compute. Microsoft can capture revenue from the infrastructure, enterprise data, model orchestration, security and end-user applications.

The question at Ignite is whether that enterprise AI flywheel is beginning to deliver measurable returns on Microsoft's massive infrastructure investments.

[FrontRowBrian™ 🇺🇸 ₿ @FrontRowBrian]

$FWONK — JPMorgan maintains Overweight and $125 PT following Q3. The most interesting development isn't F1's earnings. It's the removal of John Malone's controlling voting position and what that could mean for M&A. #F1.

JPM forecasts:
- 2026 Revenue: $4.75B (+6%)
- 2026 EBITDA: $1.23B (+15%)
- 2027 Revenue: $5.22B (+10%)
- 2027 EBITDA: $1.42B (+16%)

Formula 1
• The underlying commercial business remains strong.
• Las Vegas ticket and hospitality revenue pacing ahead of 2025. Sponsorship already exceeds last year's levels.
• Paddock Club demand remains exceptionally strong. Management says 2027 hospitality capacity is nearly fully allocated.
• F1 expanding from 6 to 10 sprint races in 2027, creating more inventory for promoters, sponsors and hospitality.
• JPM forecasts F1 EBITDA of $1.22B in 2027, +15%, with sponsorship revenue exceeding $1B.

MotoGP
• JPM expects EBITDA growth to accelerate from essentially flat in 2026 to +16% in 2027.
• Approximately 75% of the 2027 calendar will benefit from new or renewed promoter agreements.
• Race promotion drives the initial growth, followed by media rights, sponsorship and hospitality. Liberty is clearly applying aspects of the F1 commercial model to MotoGP.

The bigger story: John Malone and M&A.

Liberty acquired 97% of the outstanding supervoting B shares in exchange for A and C shares, diluting existing holders approximately 1.5%.

Malone previously controlled roughly 48% of the vote. Following the transactions, no shareholder has more than 9%.

More interesting: Liberty disclosed that multiple third parties had made unsolicited approaches to acquire Malone's B shares.

JPM explicitly identifies $TKO as a potential acquirer, noting it has previously written about the possibility. Malone himself has discussed synergies between the companies. The bank also cites sovereign wealth funds as potential buyers, referencing previously reported Saudi PIF interest. None of this establishes that a deal is being negotiated.

Liberty also adopted a 1-year poison pill, effectively requiring potential buyers to negotiate with the board rather than accumulate control. JPM believes these developments justify restoring some acquisition premium to the stock.

Capital allocation

Net debt/EBITDA is expected to fall from 4.7x in 2025 to 2.4x in 2027, creating potential flexibility for capital returns.

Valuation

JPM's $125 target implies approximately 25x projected 2028 levered FCF, compared with 30x for $TKO.

My takeaway: Formula 1's commercial growth remains strong, MotoGP has meaningful monetization potential, and Liberty's governance changes make corporate transactions more plausible.

The unsolicited interest in Malone's voting shares is particularly interesting. It suggests outside investors were already looking for a pathway to control.

The question now is whether that interest translates into a full-company offer — and whether $TKO becomes involved.

[FrontRowBrian™ 🇺🇸 ₿ @FrontRowBrian]

One important distinction in valuing $TKO that investors should understand: Free cash flow before and after member distributions.

JPMorgan's 2026 estimates:
• Reported FCF: $977M
• FCF after member distributions: $615M
• Difference: $362M

Why the difference?

TKO has a complex ownership structure. WME/Endeavor-related entities directly own a substantial portion of TKO's operating company (OpCo). TKO OpCo was formally known as Zuffa Parent LLC which was the entity where the UFC assets resided. TKO OpCo should not be confused with TKO Group Holdings.

TKO consolidates the operating company's financial results, but not all the cash generated belongs economically to publicly traded shareholders.

OpCo makes distributions to its owners, including WME/Endeavor-related entities (Silver Lake). These are separate from ordinary dividends paid to TKO shareholders.

Only Class A shareholders get the quarterly dividend. Class B shareholders, the WME/Endeavor/Silver Lake groups do not receive the dividend as Class B shareholders don't own economic interest in TKO at the parent level. They do have voting control, however, and the TKO OpCo units which are exchangable for Class A shares of TKO Group Holdings on a 1:1 basis.

This matters for valuation.

JPMorgan's $222 price target values TKO at approximately 30x projected 2028 levered free cash flow AFTER member distributions.

The takeaway: Don't assume all of TKO's consolidated free cash flow is available to public shareholders. The ownership structure matters, and cash flow after distributions is a more relevant measure when evaluating the publicly traded equity.

[FrontRowBrian™ 🇺🇸 ₿ @FrontRowBrian]

$TKO — JPMorgan raises estimates following Q3, maintains Overweight and $222 Price Target.

The interesting part of the report isn't 2026. It's what happens in 2027.

JPM now forecasts:
- 2026 EBITDA: $2.305B (+45%)
- 2027 EBITDA: $2.455B (+6.5%)
- Consolidated EBITDA growth moderates in 2027, but that masks double-digit earnings growth at both UFC and WWE. Much of the difference comes from IMG cycling off the 2026 World Cup.
- UFC and WWE are each expected to grow EBITDA roughly 12–13% next year. Together, they add about $280M in EBITDA.
- The problem is IMG, where EBITDA declines from $307M to $176M, largely reflecting the absence of the 2026 World Cup contribution.

A few important takeaways:

UFC: Q3 media rights revenue +66% y/y, live events +83%, partnerships +29%. Revenue exceeded expectations, but margins missed. JPM forecasts $1.30B in UFC EBITDA for 2027.

WWE: Q3 live events revenue -30%, partly due to the lighter PLE calendar and weaker SummerSlam ticket sales. Partnerships still grew 28%. JPM expects a substantial Q4 rebound.

International hosting fees: JPM estimates a $55M Riyadh payment in Q4 and sees additional upside from a special WrestleMania 43 payment, where WWE is giving up the box office.

Cash flow: JPM forecasts $977M in 2026 reported FCF, but only $615M after member distributions. That distinction matters.

Valuation: JPM's $222 target uses ~17x 2028 EBITDA and ~30x levered FCF after member distributions, a premium to $FWONK.

The bank also points to Zuffa Boxing, further buybacks and a post-Q4 investor day as longer-term catalysts.

My takeaway: The UFC/WWE businesses are growing considerably faster than consolidated EBITDA suggests. The IMG World Cup comparison masks that underlying growth.

But at roughly 30x forward cash flow, TKO needs more than good execution. It needs continued monetization upside to justify the premium.

[FrontRowBrian™ 🇺🇸 ₿ @FrontRowBrian]

@ChillBanking what analyst would that be? Name? Track record? Is it low IQ Ed Zitron who qualifications are..... he's an obscure publicist.

[FrontRowBrian™ 🇺🇸 ₿ @FrontRowBrian]

A 4-5 SEC basement dweller has a QB that makes $7.5 million for 4 months of work. Unreal.

[On3 @On3]

BREAKING: Kamario Taylor is finalizing a $7.5M deal to return to Mississippi State in 2027, making him college football's highest-paid QB, @PeteNakos and @Clowfb report.

With incentives, the deal could potentially climb above $9 million.

https://t.co/LnYzUBfCLY

[FrontRowBrian™ 🇺🇸 ₿ @FrontRowBrian]

@SemiconductorsX Not buying this

[FrontRowBrian™ 🇺🇸 ₿ @FrontRowBrian]

@ddddddd2788 MR made such a big deal about how they're the promoter ... and all they did was advise AJ. Didn't secure the venue. Frank did that. Didn't do the netflix deal. What did they do?

[FrontRowBrian™ 🇺🇸 ₿ @FrontRowBrian]

Lololol.

[Hamed @HamedsBoxing]

🚨TWO MORE HEAVYWEIGHT FIGHTS ADDED TO FURY vs JOSHUA @Netflix SUPER-CARD

1️⃣ Tyson Fury 🆚 Anthony Joshua
2️⃣ Deontay Wilder 🆚 Jai Opetaia

3️⃣ Da’Mazion Vanhouter 🆚 Michael Essomba
4️⃣ Martin Bakole 🆚 Solomon Adebayo

[FrontRowBrian™ 🇺🇸 ₿ @FrontRowBrian]

PROTCT OUR GENIUSES BY ANY MEANS NECESSARY.

[Palmer Luckey @PalmerLuckey]

China wants Jensen out, so I want him in.

[FrontRowBrian™ 🇺🇸 ₿ @FrontRowBrian]

@jierobinson British promoters should have put the cash then. Not rely upon an American broadcaster and Saudi underwriter. They’ve had a decade to deliver and they failed.

[FrontRowBrian™ 🇺🇸 ₿ @FrontRowBrian]

Tremendous line up.
Zero fighters other than AJ associated with Edward Hearns. TKO and Sela/Turki showing who is actually running the show.

[Netflix @netflix]

NOTHING BUT HEAVY HITTERS 🔥

The all-heavyweight main card for #FuryJoshua is locked. One month to go!

🥊 Tyson Fury vs. Anthony Joshua
🥊 Deontay Wilder vs. Jai Opetaia
🥊 Martin Bakole vs. Solomon Adebayo
🥊 Da’Mazion Vanhouter vs. Michael Essomba

Friday December 11
LIVE only on Netflix

[FrontRowBrian™ 🇺🇸 ₿ @FrontRowBrian]

@BritishBoxingN1 All the money is tied up in the main event. And the co main isn’t cheap either. Manny is $12-15 mill. He will get his own event. Netflix owes him from Mayweather fiasco.

[FrontRowBrian™ 🇺🇸 ₿ @FrontRowBrian]

@BrianSozzi can elon just buy it?

[FrontRowBrian™ 🇺🇸 ₿ @FrontRowBrian]

@TheStalwart well, she is Chinese so....

[FrontRowBrian™ 🇺🇸 ₿ @FrontRowBrian]

Manny is not an undercard fighter.

[Lance Pugmire @pugboxing]

https://t.co/JzTRBh7dR4

[FrontRowBrian™ 🇺🇸 ₿ @FrontRowBrian]

This is how innovation dies. She is not a technologist. Nvidia will become Boeing. She's an MBA from a fallback school for rich kids- SMU. Unless Jensen committed treason, he needs to stay and dig himself out of this like a proper man.

[Melvin @MelvinInvests]

Some $NVDA board members are reportedly backing CFO Colette Kress as a potential interim CEO if Jensen Huang is forced to step down, according to Semafor.

For those unfamiliar with Kress, she’s been NVIDIA’s CFO since 2013 and has more than three decades of experience in the technology industry. Before NVIDIA, she spent 13 years at Microsoft, including leading finance for its Server and Tools division, and later held a senior finance leadership position at Cisco. She also previously worked at Texas Instruments.

What’s particularly interesting is that Kress has been at NVIDIA throughout its transformation from a gaming GPU company into the dominant force in AI computing. She’s helped oversee the company’s financial strategy during one of the largest growth periods in technology history and has extensive experience communicating with Wall Street.

I can understand why some directors would favor her as an interim replacement. She knows the business, understands NVIDIA’s customers and financial operations, and would likely provide some stability during a very uncertain period. But I still believe replacing Jensen would be an enormous mistake. Kress is an incredibly experienced executive, but managing NVIDIA’s finances and leading the company’s technological vision are two completely different responsibilities.

Personally, I’d much rather see Jensen remain CEO, or at the very least retain a major leadership role as chairman, than watch NVIDIA lose the person who helped build its entire AI ecosystem.

[FrontRowBrian™ 🇺🇸 ₿ @FrontRowBrian]

@WangFinance @CulperResearch has he shown his P&L? NVDA hit ATH after his short.

[FrontRowBrian™ 🇺🇸 ₿ @FrontRowBrian]

@elonmusk can you rescue @nvidia ? For the sake of the world?

[danawhite @danawhite]

Undefeated Da’Mazion Vanhouter faces Michael Essomba on December 11th! Vanhouter is the best American heavyweight prospect on an 8 fight KO streak and Essomba has a 90% knockout rate and has never been finished.

#FuryJoshua is LIVE on Netflix on December 11th!