王富贵的印钞机

为什么对交易新手来说，总会“拿不住利润” 或 “死扛亏损”。这里引入前景理论来帮助阐述。首先理论上：绝大多数交易新手，在面对得失时，会产生完全不同的风险偏好。在面对获得时，会小心翼翼，不愿冒风险；相反，在面对损失时，会不甘心，更愿冒险。比较起来可以发现，交易新手对损失和获得的敏感程度是完全不同的，在损失时遭受的痛苦感，其实要远超获得时收获的快乐感。换个思路来说，当你捡到100块钱所获得的快乐，无法抵消丢失100块钱带来的痛苦。放到交易里：当你买入的标的，涨了 5%，账户显示浮盈。这时你就会抓耳挠腮，感到极度焦虑，担心这点利润会缩水。为了获得落袋为安的确定感，你会在趋势刚刚开始时就匆忙卖出。这也就是为什么交易新手总会懊恼止盈太早，难以赚到大波段。而当你买入的标的，跌了10%，账户处于浮亏。理性的做法应该是完成止损，但因为损失厌恶，承认这笔亏损会让你同时在身心上感到痛苦。为了逃避这种痛苦，交易新手往往会选择死扛，甚至不断加仓企图摊平头寸，幻想“只要我不卖，我就没有亏。”，甚至觉得价格一定会涨回来。由下图你也可以发现；左下角亏损前期的，三象限亏损区曲线，比右上角盈利前期的，一象限收益区曲线更陡峭，二者斜率不对称。大概存在 2-2.5 倍的差距。

Vito777_'s tweet photo. 为什么对交易新手来说，总会“拿不住利润” 或 “死扛亏损”。

这里引入前景理论来帮助阐述。首先理论上：

绝大多数交易新手，在面对得失时，会产生完全不同的风险偏好。在面对获得时，会小心翼翼，不愿冒风险；相反，在面对损失时，会不甘心，更愿冒险。

比较起来可以发现，交易新手对损失和获得的敏感程度是完全不同的，在损失时遭受的痛苦感，其实要远超获得时收获的快乐感。

换个思路来说，当你捡到100块钱所获得的快乐，无法抵消丢失100块钱带来的痛苦。

放到交易里：

当你买入的标的，涨了 5%，账户显示浮盈。这时你就会抓耳挠腮，感到极度焦虑，担心这点利润会缩水。为了获得落袋为安的确定感，你会在趋势刚刚开始时就匆忙卖出。这也就是为什么交易新手总会懊恼止盈太早，难以赚到大波段。

而当你买入的标的，跌了10%，账户处于浮亏。理性的做法应该是完成止损，但因为损失厌恶，承认这笔亏损会让你同时在身心上感到痛苦。为了逃避这种痛苦，交易新手往往会选择死扛，甚至不断加仓企图摊平头寸，幻想“只要我不卖，我就没有亏。”，甚至觉得价格一定会涨回来。

由下图你也可以发现；左下角亏损前期的，三象限亏损区曲线，比右上角盈利前期的，一象限收益区曲线更陡峭，二者斜率不对称。大概存在 2-2.5 倍的差距。

王富贵的印钞机 @fugui_btc

4 months ago

@zjcwebster 坐等你挂树上

fugui_btc retweeted

Ryan Lee

@ryanleexai

4 months ago

熬夜折腾了OpenClaw一周，没想到最后推文爆了😂😂😂。感谢大家，文章下面的评论和问题，目前看到的我都回复了。现在把回复内容，再写一遍，集中放在这里。技术方面，我的OpenClaw部署在Google Cloud送的3个月服务器上，电话用的Twilio，语音合成用的Elevenlabs。对话大模型我目前用的是Claude，其实大模型不重要，其它模型我也试过，区别不大。最重要的是把你的经验做成skill, 让大模型按照skill来进行对话。推广方面，因为我目前还在一家互联网大厂做AI研发工程师，所以这次直接找了组里面的几个实习生，让他们在留学生找工作群里面推广，给他们20%的提成。这个推广很精准，产品也确实很符合需求，而且价格远低于传统的人工面试。有的同学想做其他领域。我觉得完全可以，我这个说白了，其实就之前面试副业的延续。只不过我把8年面试官/近1000候选人的经验，通过Claude Code给Skill化了。最后再通过OpenClaw以产品的形式提供给了我之前的客户。之前下班之后，一周最多搞3场面试，还累的不行，现在10天积累了几百个客户。还是那句话，AI是放大器，如果你有技能，完全可以通过AI来提速放大。

fugui_btc retweeted

alex liu

@alex_liuu

4 months ago

introducing kicker: your MEAN ai friend. the one who tells you what no one else will. the best of @openclaw + @MiniMax_AI 2.5. but meaner. no new app. no dashboard. just drop it in your chats. we’ve triggered anger issues already. you’ll love it. → https://t.co/AvxgOYCSvL

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王富贵的印钞机 @fugui_btc

5 months ago

@Jordanxchristie Again？ why？

fugui_btc retweeted

The White Whale

@WhiteWhaleLabs

5 months ago

Gloves off. I'm F$%*ing pissed. A little over three hours ago our monitoring systems alerted us to a very unusually sized sell limit order on ByBit spot. Close to $200K in value. We saw the order flip in and out of view (classic signs of spoofing). I attacked the sell wall by placing a couple of large market orders, and magically it disappeared afterwards (even tho my buys were no where near the size to knock it out, my goal was just to damage it). Seems like someone didn't want to sell after all. Large "spoofed" sell walls are intended to accomplish one function: trick bots, algo traders and regular humans into believing there is much more resistance immediately above price than below it. This taking place on a weekend with low organic volume is no accident. They continued to "walk down" the price until they got what they came for, which was long liquidations. And of course as soon as those liquidations were achieved the very large spoof order disappeared from the books. This blatant market manipulation is easy to spot on lower market-cap tokens, but this is what goes on all day every day in crypto. Who is doing this? It's not ByBit themselves. They are a fairly well-respected Tier One exchange and unlike other shady CEXs they don't need to market make their own books. This is clearly a large actor who stood to benefit from the price move. The most likely culprit? Whoever is performing the market making on the perps book. The problem is that any one of a number of Market Makers can market make any token they want. Once they are approved to access the exchange there's nothing stopping them from doing this. We never asked for a perps listing. If we had been asked we would have said we didn't want one. It's too easy to let perps drive price discovery for a lot less capital invested. I believe price discovery should be driven by spot, at the very least until asset maturity. How are they doing this? They use a combination of DEX selling, CEX selling, CEX spoof falls to trigger their desired outcome. Then they buy the dips they force to take place. They reload cheaply once they trigger a cascade because bot and human selling help them lower price to their targets. That's when they load up. Which is why they can repeat this all day long and not lose money on the spot buys they make. What can we do about it? So much of spot trading is bot/algo driven. We can't reprogram every bot to identify spoofed liquidity and not respond to it. It's literally a robot war. Bots deceiving each other. Bots not wanting to take the risk that the resistance isn't real and hedging on the side of caution. Buying into the initial dump feels logical, but you're just allowing them to exit at a higher profit. Instead, one tactic that we are deploying is putting limit buy orders just above where the liquidation clusters start on a move forward basis. We don't want to feed their profitability by trying to prevent the move but if we know their destination we do want to make that final journey as expensive as possible. This is because they will be forced to expend tokens at what is likely close to a break even or perhaps even a loss to make the move, making it much less rewarding. Additionally we have submitted yet another report to @Bybit_Official 's market surveillance team asking for an investigation. We do not know who the actor is, naturally (CEXs are black boxes) but we do know what activity is taking place. It is our sincere hope that our partners at @Bybit_Official take steps to reduce or eliminate this activity. Legal and internal definitions of "spoofing" vary greatly, and its very likely the actor knows how to conduct this behavior in a method that evades falling into the "spoofing" definition. That does not, however, mean that it is not active market manipulation - which is against their Terms of Service. We aren't sleeping on the job. We are literally monitoring these sorts of things 24 hours a day. We have seen their tactics shift and adapt as our tactics have shifted and adapted. (My favorite was when they attempted to hide the spoofing activity by also spoofing some on the buy side, although with much less money to still make the sell side seem more powerful). When the chart only makes sense once you look at a liquidation heatmap? Chances are someone applied these sorts of tactics to make it happen. This is why supply control is so very important, and why the Treasury is still accumulating supply on a daily basis. By making supply more scarce, and in the hands of actual stewards of the project (the project itself and its loyal community), these types of games become more difficult the more time goes on. I have spent so much time putting counter-moves up against the blatant market manipulation its taken away time from other things I should be doing. Like writing new video scripts, crafting new educational posts, etc. So why am I so pissed right now? Well, because today I lost. I've been winning the war a lot lately, but just wasn't able to pull of a victory today. But more than that, because this kind of nonsense should not be allowed to take place to begin with. Sadly it does...all day long...on every asset in crypto. This is why I've said since my appearance on X that the goal of trading in this space is to understand the Apex Predator so that you can walk in harmony with them, instead of being their prey. For the love of all that is holy, don't leverage trade our token. They are hunting. Shorts will be the next ones hunted. 🫡 From the depths — The White Whale 🐋