funnymonkey

[funnymonkey @funnymonkey_eth]

@aleabitoreddit 你说话的语气很中国人。

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

I think my personal style of investing is a bit different, just some reflection:

It's inherently discretionary, based on stuff markets don't know yet. And a culmination of life experiences?

If you look at $AXTI, $RPI, $SIVE, $IQE and others.

Lot of it is guessing on unstructured relationships then seeing if it's right or not down the line.

$RPI is the perfect example:

1. Nobody really thought of Raspberry Pis for AI growth. Mainly people bought one or two just for class + education + hobbyist.
2. After OpenClaw, just noticed all my friends and people just buying Apple Mac Minis / RPIs for AI applications.
3. Found validation of that trend online with lot of people sharing video tutorials on AI orchestration with RPI.
4. AI was their ideal perfect growth vector, did some modeling, and thought it was compelling.

Earnings comes out and I was right.

Everyone in media was calling it a meme stock because there's nothing online that shows revenue growth from AI (was 14% forecasted revenue growth, turned out to be 58%, my projection was around 55%).

So it was a mix of guessing next industry trend (AI using lightweight hardware instead of GPU clusters), real life trends, then revenue forecasting off my guess.

For stuff like $AXTI:

1. Everyone called it a joke when I bought at ~$12. LLMs would hallucinate and say "hyperscalers/govs would have known about this by now and fixed this vulnerability with InP substrates"
2. Or would conflate very nuanced parts of InP substrate stack, where there's multiple different chokepoints in upstream processing.
3. So part of this was just discretionary based on what I've seen over InP substrate breakdowns, industry trends, etc.
4. Then also guessing the major supercycle was photonics (this was before everyone caught onto $LITE, and others). Or before you saw the $141B TAM projections from GS.
5. AXT owned 40% of InP supply chain, without them the supply chain just gets cripped).
6. All the "analysts" were forecasting steady InP substrate growth, few hundred million TAM, etc. or export controls.
7. Everyone kept trying to say $AXTI was overvalued based on TAM estimates. But if it's a few hundred million TAM you just think that's a joke and go into game theory over allocations.
8. Then I just had to guess, how much would this be worth if it were a NAND style bottleneck, what MC could it reach based on control, how much would hyperscalers price it as, etc.

A lot of the current research outputs from Goldman Sachs, or earnings reports from the Epiwafer companies, were confirmed after I published my piece on AXT. If you did research back then, lot of the same material /framing wouldn't have come up.

With stuff like $XFAB as you're seeing now, a lot of it is just pure guessing:

1. Not really any CPO materials, how much their MTP process makes in revenue, etc. Everyone online keeps saying they're not a photonics player.
2. But if you go through ASE docs or Gov websites, they all kinda cite XFAB as a major emerging player here.
3. $NVDA also evaluating them right now (maybe it's successful who knows).
4. No clear revenue around this area because their main silicon photonics process is still precommercial, but if you guess it's trying to create a EU supply chain to compete with $TSEM, once pre-commercial shifts to commercial, maybe similar but less volume contracts?
5. Then just seeing updates over the next few months to see if anything confirms this thesis guess.

_

I think a lot of information discovery still can be done with LLMs I'm seeing online. But it's also really hard to make a bunch of unstructured inferences based on unrelated material or even just trends you're seeing in real life.

So probably better to just do what's standard, eg. do valuation forecasting based on current numbers

Stuff like $AAOI, if they're projecting $471m/M h1 2027 and you see MC at $12B, probably undervalued might be a good idea to go long for next years.

Stuff like Samsung Electronics is easier, see what people are modeling for operating profits for 2027, 2028 then just seeing if it's undervalued or not at current levels.

Maybe something harder is $JBL. I haven't really seen any great volume numbers around 1.6T LRO, but you can just make a guess on how popular that might be then project how that might impact current MCs.

Or picking just good names everyone kinda agrees like $TSM, $INTC, $MRVL is also solid.

So a lot of things is just building up your life skills then applying that to markets. I don't think it's that can be taught with courses and stuff.

Of course, much of what I'm doing is just high conviction inference based on unconnected parts. Could always be wrong.

[funnymonkey @funnymonkey_eth]

@Web3Feng @aleabitoreddit 卧槽，你不会是中国人吧

[funnymonkey @funnymonkey_eth]

@aleabitoreddit 树莓派都能这么涨。。。

[168X @168X_Fortune]

https://t.co/RuGnhwcTiZ

[funnymonkey @funnymonkey_eth]

@_FORAB rklb 果然涨了

[Backpack中文 @Backpack_CN]

https://t.co/d3K1IpfLhu

[funnymonkey @funnymonkey_eth]

@xiejiayinBitget 能不能上架别的国家地区市场啊，比如日韩台的？

[funnymonkey @funnymonkey_eth]

@hazenlee 不是之前说的有18个月吗？怎么突然变成6个月了😅

[funnymonkey @funnymonkey_eth]

@szslg 马上wsbk亚太区总部要来上海，也会在上海办比赛，这时候限制就是自掘坟墓了🤣

[funnymonkey @funnymonkey_eth]

@hazenlee 今天29后入了李哥🤓

[Ace from Money or Life 美股频道 @Money_or_Life_X]

Serenity在早前说光通讯中的CPO路线，ta最看好TSEM和SOI. TSEM我已经在财报前建仓，现在来看看和TSEM直接相关的SOI。

Soitec 是法国半导体衬底厂，全球唯一量产 Photonics-SOI 晶圆的厂商，主要客户是TSEM、台积电。FY2026 总营收 EUR 500-600M，其中 Photonics-SOI 仅 ~EUR 100M（17-20%）但却是增长引擎。AI 数据中心的所有硅光芯片，都长在 Soitec 的一颗晶圆上。

大客户TSEM 早前扩产直接拉动 Soitec 晶圆需求，每一片 Tower 出货的硅光晶圆 = 一片 Soitec 衬底订单。今天财报TSEM又宣布 $13亿 硅光合约 + $290M 预付款，大概率Soitec作为供应商进一步受益！

[funnymonkey @funnymonkey_eth]

@chenmo 年息10%怎么撑得住😅比国债都暴利 那还买个der的btc啊 下一个Luna

[funnymonkey @funnymonkey_eth]

@0xcherry 还是有不少问题，让他尝试保持mac锁屏时可以运行，他直接把自己进程干掉了，然后重启了不知道为啥一直卡在一个任务，超时30分钟。感觉没必要神话😅

[funnymonkey @funnymonkey_eth]

@0xVeryBigOrange 同频了

[Sac @Saccc_c]

港大团队刚刚开源了新项目ClawTeam，让 AI Agent 从单打独斗进化到团队协作。

ClawTeam支持 Claude Code、OpenClaw 等任意 CLI Agent 自主组队、分工、并行完成复杂任务。

应用场景：
- 自主 ML 研究：基于@karpathy autoresearch 理念，8 个 Agent 各占一块 H100，并行跑 2400+ 次超参数搜索，几小时完成原本需要几个月的调参工作。
- 全栈软件开发：一句话需求，自动拆分出架构师、后端、前端、测试，各自写代码，写完自动合并。
- AI 对冲基金：7 个分析师 Agent 同时从价值、成长、技术面分析股票，风控 Agent 汇总决策。

还在让你的Agent单兵作战？试试让他们自己组建团队，效率直接拉满。

仓库地址：https://t.co/eSKbKQRUCo

[funnymonkey @funnymonkey_eth]

@Jason60704294 少赚点吧哥

[funnymonkey @funnymonkey_eth]

@CryptoPainter 用手机不行么🤣

[funnymonkey @funnymonkey_eth]

@Bitfatty 晒单即止盈 一般不会错🥹

[funnymonkey @funnymonkey_eth]

@Bitfatty 一股子老登味儿