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๐จ๐ณ TikTok buys ๐ฒ๐จTokopedia - why?
Chinese tech giants are eyeing Indonesia as the largest market opportunity outside their home market:
- World's 4th biggest country
- 6% annual growth
- median age of 29
- 150M + digital natives
- Geopolitically neutral
I too am long India, and we are investing there... almost 20% of our fund 2 ('22-'23) capital is in Indian companies!
The macro is great - but it still can be a tough place to make money in fintech. Here's how we think about fintech businesses in India - roughly in order of the best ways to make money, and then how it works / doesn't work in India:
1) SaaS - works well if building in India and selling to a global market. There is a very low willingness to pay for consumer SaaS; people are not used to paying for software.
2) Payment processing - the government has done a lot of work to encourage digital payments - UPI, merchant discount caps, etc. This is great for consumers, but ultimately bad if you are building a business trying to make money on payments. One spot where we are excited is global payments - you don't suffer from those caps.
3) AUM - can work, market is smaller than the US by an order of magnitude, but some good businesses have been built
4) API calls - works well if selling to a global market
5) PFOF - outlawed by SEBI
6) Lead Gen - there are some interesting businesses here, not sure that there continue to be great opportunities
7) Lending revenues (NIM/Interest income) - this is how the majority of fintech companies serving the domestic market make money. No matter what the business starts out as, ultimately most Indian fintechs are lending businesses. The problem is lending businesses are by nature difficult with the venture model, which prioritizes growth... it's easy to grow when giving out money! NIM/Interest revenues trade at the lowest multiples.
So ultimately most fintech companies we see in India either are selling to a global market (taking advantage of building in India) or making money on lending (which can be difficult for venture investors)... but there are other opportunities too!