James ⌁ Furthermore

open money enthusiast ⌁

[James ⌁ Furthermore @furthermoOor]

@iamsvenh @borkerxyz 1 looks strong.

a few tools to test with:
https://t.co/J2PI75B7SL
https://t.co/Gz7SlyW8yu

[James ⌁ Furthermore @furthermoOor]

@MikeIppolito_ clockwork
https://t.co/VMaJ8f7WLV

[James ⌁ Furthermore @furthermoOor]

Do we expect history to repeat?

BTC Cycle Bottoms → Halving (Bottom Halving Lead Time = BHMA)

Jan '15 $175 → Jul 2016 (18 mo)
Dec '18 $3.2k → May 2020 (17 mo)
Nov '22 $15.6k → Apr 2024 (17 mo)

Apr '28 is consensus for next halving
pattern → bottom ~Nov 2026.

Today (Aug 4) to that BHMA = ~90 days.

Same window historically, BTC prices:
–64% (2015)
–57% (2018)
–38% (2022)

Final 90 days before BHMA have delivered -38-64% drops. ETH usually follows BTC.

Wildcard: CLARITY Act? or is that a sell-the-news event and impact to roll next year?

[James ⌁ Furthermore @furthermoOor]

@TEEK_10000 Have noticed extra fine customer service at ACE Hardware - reminds me of the olden days

[James ⌁ Furthermore @furthermoOor]

Do we expect history to repeat?

BTC Cycle Bottoms → Halving (Bottom Halving Lead Time = BHMA)

Jan '15 $175 → Jul 2016 (18 mo)
Dec '18 $3.2k → May 2020 (17 mo)
Nov '22 $15.6k → Apr 2024 (17 mo)

Apr '28 is consensus for next halving
pattern → bottom ~Nov 2026.

Today (Aug 4) to that BHMA = ~90 days.

Same window historically, BTC prices:
–64% (2015)
–57% (2018)
–38% (2022)

Final 90 days before BHMA have delivered -38-64% drops. ETH usually follows BTC.

Wildcard: CLARITY Act? or is that a sell-the-news event and impact to roll next year?

[James ⌁ Furthermore @furthermoOor]

Codex Desktop (Windows) message-content search for recent Codex chats is failing.

Chat title search works.
Old (last week) message-content search works.
Recent message-content search does NOT work.

Also noticing Codex app having lots of sluggishness switching between chats.

Current version:26.802.11031

[James ⌁ Furthermore @furthermoOor]

imagine a world of assets where redemptions, holders, backing, yield and exit were natively verifiable.

good news it already exists:
crvusd and lusd stablecoins, crv and ldo network ownership, eth digital oil, steth and eeth transferable yield, staked atokens for aave's umbrella backstop, .eth for identity

most rwas are receipts for machinery elsewhere. crypto-native assets have more of the machinery onchain. expect these two worlds to converge. soon we'll all be on the superhighway.

[James ⌁ Furthermore @furthermoOor]

@CoinFoundEN "stress exit" in box 4 is the linchpin - bring more light to that, and other parts will fall into place

what is the largest completed exit in dollars and percent of aum? how long did it take? what slippage, loss, delay, or unpaid queue occurred?

[James ⌁ Furthermore @furthermoOor]

most assets in the parking lot - but they want to be on the superhighway, composing, shapeshifting, expanding value

neat innovations rolling out; redstone settle, infinifi liquidity bridge for 3F, flyingtulip instant settlement credit facility, erc-8161 transferable tokenized vault requests

[James ⌁ Furthermore @furthermoOor]

Show me the EXIT.

E - Exit asset: What comes back: cash, stablecoin, the underlying security, property-sale proceeds, or another claim?

X - eXecution limits: What are the timing, fees, caps, queues, liquidity sleeves, pool depth, and pro-rata rules?

I - Intermediaries: Which platform, issuer, manager, custodian, bank, dealer, court, and blockchain must work?

T - Tested record: What is the largest completed exit in dollars and percent of AUM? How long did it take? What slippage, loss, delay, or unpaid queue occurred?

[James ⌁ Furthermore @furthermoOor]

@centrifuge Opportunity for a dashboard tracking (and stress testing) largest completed exit in dollars and percent of AUM.

How long did it take? What slippage, loss, delay, or unpaid queue occurred?

[James ⌁ Furthermore @furthermoOor]

@0xfrigg Seeing any indie liquidity settlement accelerators to note? imagine this is a big opportunity for defi.

[James ⌁ Furthermore @furthermoOor]

@redstone_defi @ethereuminsti RWA redemption stress historical leaderboard brought to you by Redstone would go well here

$$$, delays, chain of redemption stakeholders

Get everyone educated on whats really at stake

[James ⌁ Furthermore @furthermoOor]

@KeyLabs_trade expansion opportunity for defi liquidity sleeves?

[James ⌁ Furthermore @furthermoOor]

@pitdesi banana cream pie could be the right next move

[James ⌁ Furthermore @furthermoOor]

@ViktorBunin Excellent.

[James ⌁ Furthermore @furthermoOor]

@kashou987 @thsottiaux Noticing Codex on Windows is slow even when starting fresh chat and getting updated from project files. Feels more like a client side app bloat issue. Similar latency when switching axross any chat windows.

[James ⌁ Furthermore @furthermoOor]

@willywoo rough journey: gox, coinbase and ledger doxxing leaks, celsius, ftx, coldcard and many more.

for honeybadgers.

[James ⌁ Furthermore @furthermoOor]

Mistakenly deleted the thread. but archived here. https://t.co/MRBScAelTq

[James ⌁ Furthermore @furthermoOor]

1/n
Many expect a power law for stablecoin winners.

Its more complicated than that. We're in a multi decade era of financial unbundling and a 'big bang' of stablecoins. Thousands will emerge, potentially leading to the first $1T stablecoin and several worth $10-$100B, in this decade.

Today's duopoly are 1st gen stablecoin architecture, akin to the first New York Times website being merely a PDF in 1996.

[James ⌁ Furthermore @furthermoOor]

This paradigm is probably what comes after stablecoins. You won’t need a common MoE since the network does the heavy lifting and abstraction.

[Cycles @cyclesmoney]

We released a new version of the Cycles Pay app, which comes with expense splitting for personal accounts.

If you've ever used Splitwise, it works similarly. You can add users to a group (such as a vacation, a household, or a night out), log who paid for what, and Cycles Pay tracks who owes whom across the group. Balances keep earning yield the whole time debts are outstanding, so everyone's money stays productive. When it’s time to settle, Cycles runs clearing first, identifying where obligations cancel each other out so that less money actually has to move. The settlement happens right in the app in stablecoins, with no geographic restrictions (unlike Splitwise & other such apps where users have to switch to another app to send a payment).

For us, this is another small step toward building the first on-chain clearing network. Every expense logged is an obligation recorded in the graph, and the more obligations we track, the more of them cancel out. Over time, the network activity will allow us to build very powerful features like direct SME to SME credit.

[James ⌁ Furthermore @furthermoOor]

Some assets for are for parking, some for local streets, some for superhighways. Even though forces at be have been quietly rebranding defi to onchain finance, integration playbooks and the network effect they can affect remain as important as ever.

[cryptographic 🦞 @cryptographicas]

https://t.co/NrJ2PAYbyB