Ben MItzelfelt

Change my mind

[Everyday Astronaut @Erdayastronaut]

This is SUCH a complicated topic and many people are voicing opinions with some basic facts missing. Please allow me a few minutes to explain this situation in depth:

Let's start at the beginning...

SpaceX and Boeing were hired in 2014 to provide commercial crew services to the ISS for NASA. SpaceX was the first to successfully fly and safely return crew with operational flights beginning in 2020.

Boeing had an unsuccessful test flight in 2019 which required a redo in 2022 which was considered successful despite a few thruster malfunctions, it safely flew the mission to and from the ISS.

It should be noted, that Boeing received nearly double the amount SpaceX did for the Commercial Crew Program, mostly for "timeline assurance" - ironic

This eventually led to the flight of Boeing's Starliner Crew Flight Test with Butch and Suni in June, 2024. Immediately once on orbit, the vehicle experienced thruster issues and small helium leaks which were more off-nominal than they would've liked.

The safest thing to do was to dock to the ISS where they could further test and figure out the exact issue and determine the safest thing to do next.

The ISS was their original destination and once on Station, the Crew was safe AND had work to do as highly trained NASA astronauts, station keeping, and doing research and science.

During this period, there technically wasn't a known, safe way to get Butch and Suni back, so NASA and SpaceX devised a way to have them return as the 5th and 6th crew on the Crew-8 Dragon, C206 Endeavour in the case of an emergency on station.

After a few months of testing, NASA decided the safest thing to do was to have the Boeing Starliner return uncrewed, which would free up that docking port to allow the Crew-9 SpaceX Dragon Capsule a place to dock.

So in September, the malfunctioning Starliner returned (safely), uncrewed, and for about two weeks the official way off the station in an emergency was by being the 5th and 6th crew inside the Crew-8 Dragon capsule, but then on September 29th, Crew-9 docked to the ISS.

THIS MEANS, THE SPACEX CREW DRAGON CAPSULE THAT IS DEEMED TO "RESCUE" / UN-"ABANDON" / "SAVE" BUTCH AND SUNI HAS ALREADY BEEN DOCKED TO THE ISS SINCE SEPTEMBER. People seem to be missing this point.

And here's where this all gets pretty complicated...

NASA / Roscosmos flew Crew-9 with only Nick Hague and Aleksandr Gorbunov so there would be two seats available to return Butch and Suni from the ISS. They even brought up two SpaceX space suits with them since the Boeing Starliner ones weren't compatible with Dragon.

Normally, the ISS crews do 6 month stays with overlapping "expeditions" where half the crew basically rotates out every three months. What it really means is, GENERALLY, you go up on one spacecraft, you come down on that same one.

And crewed spacecraft come up every 3 months, basically play a game of tag, and they swap with half the crew that's currently onboard. They alternate, US Commercial Crew and Russian Soyuz vehicles. Sometimes these schedules change, and sometimes missions have crew on much longer than 6 months, with the record and the safe timeframe being considered about one year.

So the plan has been to have Butch and Suni join Crew-9. This means they are part of Expedition 71, 72 AND 73 on the ISS. Basically they got to do an extra expedition, something that I think most professional astronauts might see as a good thing.

Since normally you don't have a crew leave the ISS until their replacements arrive, this means Crew-9 isn't slated to leave until Crew-10 arrives.

In December it was revealed that Crew-10 is targeting no earlier than March because the particular SpaceX Crew Dragon capsule that was slated to be used for that mission is not yet ready because it is brand new and there was still fabrication, assembly, testing and final integration of the vehicle necessary before it flew.

This Crew Dragon, C213, is the fifth and likely final Dragon Capsule that will be built. So why are they waiting on a brand new spacecraft to launch Crew-10? Why aren't they just using one of the other 5 to fly Crew-10 sooner and get Butch and Suni home sooner?

Well, C207 Resilience flew Polaris Dawn and is modified for free flying and is docking-portless at the moment, and will be flying Fram-2 soon. C206 Endeavor is undergoing refurbishment as planned after its 5th flight. C212 Freedom is currently docked to the ISS and C210 is currently slated to fly Axiom-4.

So what options are there?

What if they really do say "just bring them home already!!!"... well it causes a bit of a mess.

First off, they would abandon their expedition 72 crew mate, Don Pettit, to be the only person onboard the US segment of the ISS. Leaving him alone to do all station keeping, leaving virtually no time to do science or research, he'd become a full time janitor / maintenance man until he was relieved of his duties.

It should be noted that when they increased crew size from a crew of 3 to a crew of 4, the amount of science that could be done nearly doubled, which goes to show just how much time and energy it takes to keep the station operational for a crew.

Another option is rush completion and certification of the C213 Dragon and fly Crew-10 earlier, which I think we all agree is a terrible option, and likely one SpaceX wouldn't sign off on, no matter how much pressure there is from up top.

Another option is to switch Crew-10 to fly on C210, which is also not great since the Crew has been training specifically to certify and test out C213 as part of their mission. Swapping two crews' hardware at this point would be fairly negligent too.

Lastly, the option is to just wait until Crew-10 arrives, swap the crews per usual and allow Butch and Suni to fly home on Crew-9's Dragon Capsule once Crew-10 is settled in and operating the station.

This is the option NASA, and ultimately SpaceX, chose. These are just plain and simple the facts of the situation, hopefully it helps you develop an informed and nuanced opinion on this complicated subject matter.

[SpaceX @SpaceX]

Texts between two phones sent through our Direct to Cell satellites in space

[Sam Altman @sama]

feeling good about this prediction! what a difference 27 months makes...

[Ben MItzelfelt @Future2Ben]

@StrtKing @onbeeper If it has a reliable fail solution then I would be happy to trust it.

[Peter Beck @Peter_J_Beck]

Virgin Orbit built a fantastic production facility with the very best equipment. We're fortunate to have nearly completed the acquisition of this facility and equipment to help advance Neutron’s future production and reduce the overall cost of the program significantly.

[Ben MItzelfelt @Future2Ben]

@reckless Have you seen this happen in your testing?

[Zac Bowden @zacbowden]

The new, AI powered version of Microsoft Bing is official, and it's absolutely wild https://t.co/w55ZDcERzk

[Peter Beck @Peter_J_Beck]

Neutron 1st stage tank halves in progress.
Love it when a plan comes together.

[Ben MItzelfelt @Future2Ben]

@nerdalert @farzyness Thoughts?

[Ben MItzelfelt @Future2Ben]

@mds Is this true?

[Ben MItzelfelt @Future2Ben]

@mr_bradleyBW @michaelcarlbudd Christian radio or incense?

[Ben MItzelfelt @Future2Ben]

@AndrewYang I do not agree.

[Ben MItzelfelt @Future2Ben]

@carleenhaylett @alexiskold @_EnrichedHQ Isn't the main problem when teaching at home the childcare element. Having time away from your children allows parents to work or do other activities. Curriculum is not the main barrier in this space.

[Ben MItzelfelt @Future2Ben]

@michaelcarlbudd @elonmusk @justbee is just hanging out on Beatrices Iphone 3 waiting to be used.

[Ben MItzelfelt @Future2Ben]

@michaelcarlbudd @elonmusk They should allow defunked handles to be bought. That could raise some money. If you haven't tweeted or logged in for 5 years it should go to an auction.

[Ben MItzelfelt @Future2Ben]

"A close-up of a single tear rolling down the cheek of a warrior princess, as she gazes out at a desolate battlefield littered with fallen soldiers."

[Ben MItzelfelt @Future2Ben]

Chat.OpenAi Prompt:
Write me 3 Dall-E prompts to use to for a mood board in a film about a warrior princess who has lost her love to battle and is destined to continually read old love letters.

Results:

[Ben MItzelfelt @Future2Ben]

"A worn and weathered leather journal filled with handwritten love letters, resting on a bed of dried wildflowers and pine needles."

[Ben MItzelfelt @Future2Ben]

"A shadowy figure in a tuxedo and fedora, holding a gun and standing in front of a flaming city skyline with the words "Agent 007" in bold, neon letters."

[Ben MItzelfelt @Future2Ben]

"A close-up of a shaken, not stirred martini glass, with a twist of lemon and a glint of light reflecting off the rim."