THE CHOSEN ONE🎑

Financial Analyst || Investment Analyst || Foreign Exchange Trader || Commodities, Index || Futures & Options Trader || Crypto Analyst and Stock Market Analyst

[THE CHOSEN ONE🎑 @fx_margin_call]

The Knowledge is from the books and the life experiences

But the wisdom , well that is from God

[Bull Theory @BullTheoryio]

$2 Trillion has been ERASED from the U.S. stock market today.

[Bull Theory @BullTheoryio]

🚨 EVERYTHING THAT COULD GO WRONG FOR MARKETS WENT WRONG TODAY.

S&P 500 down -1.65%, wiping out $1.14 trillion.
Nasdaq down -2.60%, wiping out $1.11 trillion.
Gold down -3.38%, wiping out $1 trillion.
Silver down -6.9%, wiping out $280 billion.
Bitcoin down -6.31%, wiping out $80 billion.

In total $2.5 TRILLION wiped out in a single session. These were not isolated moves. Everything started breaking at the same time.

It started with the jobs report this morning.

The US economy added 172,000 jobs in May. Wall Street expected 88,000. That is almost double.

On any normal day, strong jobs is good news. But inflation is already at 3.8% and oil is sitting at $90. A labor market this strong tells the Fed it cannot cut interest rates and may actually need to raise them.

The probability of a rate hike this year went from 40% to 57% in a single day. That spooked every investor holding tech and growth stocks because higher rates mean those stocks are worth less today.

Then the AI trade started cracking.

Yesterday Broadcom reported record earnings: revenue up 48%, AI chip sales up 143% and the stock still crashed 12.6%. The reason was simple.

Broadcom did not raise its AI revenue targets for the year. Investors had expected it to. That single miss made people ask a question they had been avoiding for months: are we paying too much for AI stocks?

That question got louder today when a research firm called SemiAnalysis revealed that Nvidia's next-generation AI chips will need significantly less memory than everyone assumed, roughly half of what the market was pricing in.

Memory chips are what companies like SK Hynix and Samsung make. SK Hynix fell nearly 10% today. Samsung fell over 6%.

South Korea's entire stock market crashed 5.5% in a single session. Japan's semiconductor stocks did the same.

And then Anthropic added fuel to the fire by publishing a report warning that AI is getting close to the point where it can improve itself without human help and calling for a global pause in AI development.

Coming on the same day as the memory demand news and Broadcom's miss, it fed a single growing fear across the market: what if the AI boom is moving faster than the business models can keep up with?

Underneath all of this, there is a liquidity problem nobody is talking about.

SpaceX goes public next week at a $1.75 trillion valuation. Anthropic just filed to go public. OpenAI is next.

These three companies together are worth $4 to $5 trillion. Fund managers need cash to buy into these listings.

But cash levels are already at their lowest since early 2024. The only way to raise cash is to sell what they already own. That selling is happening right now.

The new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will also hold his very first policy meeting in 11 days. He was appointed by Trump with the expectation of cutting rates.

He is now walking into a situation where inflation is high, oil is high, and the job market is running hot. Investors do not know what he will do.

When nobody knows what the most powerful central banker in the world will decide in less than two weeks, the safest move is to reduce risk today.

Everything that could go wrong, went wrong at the same time. A hot jobs report, a collapsing ceasefire, a crack in the AI trade, a trillion dollar liquidity drain, and a Fed meeting with no clear outcome.

[Yahoo Finance @YahooFinance]

Tech stocks lead losses in today's market plunge.

[THE CHOSEN ONE🎑 @fx_margin_call]

Intimate https://t.co/E6JmNOYUoU via @YouTube

[THE CHOSEN ONE🎑 @fx_margin_call]

~Two‑Pot weakened retirement funds
~Now crypto falls under full exchange‑control law

Simple pattern recognition

When a government is under fiscal pressure, it tightens the perimeter

~Crypto? Regulated
~Offshore flows? Restricted
~Retirement funds? Unlocked early
~TFSAs? Still safe, but still within the Governments reach

💭When you are building a portfolio in South Africa🇿🇦, you need to build a portfolio that is able to survive any and all policy shifts and that's before you even consider nor factor other nationions🌏🗺️external shocks or geopolitical risk or instability

You Have To Firstly Protect yourself, Your Finances, Your Portfolio against your own Government first, before you consider other nations, not just market volatility🤞

[Daily Investor @DailyInvestorSA]

The Johannesburg High Court has ruled that Bitcoin legally constitutes "money" and "capital”, meaning that transferring cryptocurrency offshore without regulatory approval is illegal and can result in asset forfeiture.
https://t.co/vCVUr6QSrP

[THE CHOSEN ONE🎑 @fx_margin_call]

~Two‑Pot weakened retirement funds
~Now crypto falls under full exchange‑control law

Simple pattern recognition

When a government is under fiscal pressure, it tightens the perimeter

~Crypto? Regulated
~Offshore flows? Restricted
~Retirement funds? Unlocked early
~TFSAs? Still safe, but still within the Governments reach

💭When you are building a portfolio in South Africa🇿🇦, you need to build a portfolio that is able to survive any and all policy shifts and that's before you even consider nor factor other nationions🌏🗺️external shocks or geopolitical risk or instability

You Have To Firstly Protect yourself, Your Finances, Your Portfolio against your own Government first, before you consider other nations, not just market volatility🤞

[Daily Investor @DailyInvestorSA]

The Johannesburg High Court has ruled that Bitcoin legally constitutes "money" and "capital”, meaning that transferring cryptocurrency offshore without regulatory approval is illegal and can result in asset forfeiture.
https://t.co/vCVUr6QSrP

[THE CHOSEN ONE🎑 @fx_margin_call]

My strategy is Behavioral Economics

Nothing much no special thing

Just simple concepts of economics

[THE CHOSEN ONE🎑 @fx_margin_call]

To undertand the market you must undertand how people choose to participate within the market

What makes them initiate trades and what makes them liquidate trades

Behavioral Trades of winners and losers

Exploit that and you will increase your profiting probabilities

[THE CHOSEN ONE🎑 @fx_margin_call]

There are papers written on Behavioral Finances that are actually beneficial to traders

This papers basically show the relationship between psychological behaviors of participants and Sociological beliefs

Beliefs and preferences have a huge impact on prices

[THE CHOSEN ONE🎑 @fx_margin_call]

We are already here

[THE CHOSEN ONE🎑 @fx_margin_call]

For everything bad there is always something Good to it

Predictive market when applied to the financial market can give one a rough estimation or idea or a glimpse into behavioral finances

For me personally I started using this to get glimpse into potential outcomes based on mass effect

E.g prediction into the CPI rate

Basically gives you a glimpse into the expectation of the market
Though the data is currently insufficient due to participants

If mass adopted this can completely elemente most financial calanders such as Forex Factory and many apps that provide high impact news

Though this will take time

Predictive Markets are Simar to Fundamental trading,.. In my opinion this are things one should never actively participate in

Observe but don't invest or trade

I repeat don't ever ever ever trade or put money in this either fundamental trading or Predictive Markets

Something are above a retail traders financial capabilities

Some activities they need Quants they need YANG

[THE CHOSEN ONE🎑 @fx_margin_call]

Seeing so many people being shocked about the recent crypto news is one of the reason why the bar is low in South Africa

I mean you can't be shocked if you are investing in this related markets

There is a reason why we have behavioral economics and the application of the minimax strategies

Economics is something thats actively and deliberately ignored by our generation

That's why we are always shocked

[THE CHOSEN ONE🎑 @fx_margin_call]

Behavioral Finance requires emotional discipline

People who get triggered or offended by straightforward, data-backed advice

For example:

"Don't max your TFSA while drawing on 18-20% of debt and having zero emergency savings"

Display characteristics or emotional behaviors that lead to the destruction of a lot of young retail investors' returns

Investing success isn’t mainly about intelligence or “Mindset Trends”

It’s about emotional discipline

[THE CHOSEN ONE🎑 @fx_margin_call]

"Many are the plans in a person’s heart, but it is the Lord’s purpose that prevails."

~Proverbs 19:21

Many people don't understand this bible verse, they think that they will plan to do a certain thing and God will make them do the other.

God never violates freewill.

He will tell you that your purpose is this, what you should do, and you do the other.

His purpose prevails, His purpose never changes, because you disobeyed Him.

That's why the Bible says:

"If we are unfaithful, he remains faithful, for he cannot deny who he is."~2 Timothy 2:13

He never changes his Council will prevail, what God said will prevail.

Psalm 65:11 says: "You crown the year with Your goodness, And Your paths drip with abundance."

**NOT your path** BUT HIS PATH DRIPS WITH ABUNDANCE

if you take the time, he has given you to fulfil his purpose and dedicate it to your own plans, his council still stands.

What you were meant to accomplish in his plans, and you get into something else you will not accomplish it in a different way unless he redirects you back to his purpose for your life

Romans 8:28 Says: "And we know that in all things God works for the good of those who love him, who have been called according to his purpose."

HIS PURPOSE not Yours

[THE CHOSEN ONE🎑 @fx_margin_call]

2023 Me

[THE CHOSEN ONE🎑 @fx_margin_call]

This is a clear illustration of supply and demand , if you where to look at this figure below it , magnets are put on two sides , so the metal moves from on magnet to the next , in an orderly fashion (supply and demand )

[THE CHOSEN ONE🎑 @fx_margin_call]

This is a clear illustration of supply and demand , if you where to look at this figure below it , magnets are put on two sides , so the metal moves from on magnet to the next , in an orderly fashion (supply and demand )

[THE CHOSEN ONE🎑 @fx_margin_call]

"You crown the year with Your goodness, and Your paths drip with abundance"

~Psalm 65:11-13

[THE CHOSEN ONE🎑 @fx_margin_call]

Tip to becoming profitable:

Do the opposite of what this Crowd of people do👇🏾👇🏾👇🏾👇🏾👇🏾

[THE CHOSEN ONE🎑 @fx_margin_call]

Lol both beefing for cloud

Lol but Polymarket is actually the original

Most people don't even know the origin of the predictive markets

It was actually a study created or began as an academic experiment by IEM

And it's whole ideology is rooted in CROWD BEHAVIOR

WISDOM OF THE CROWD THEORY or WISDOM OF THE MAJORITY THEORY

[THE CHOSEN ONE🎑 @fx_margin_call]

As a Trader, you have to be able to identify patterns of behaviours within the Market and that can only be done so when there is an increased number of participants

Crowd or mass behaviours are a key to understanding patterns within the market, as masses normally make their decisions based on the dominant decision within that set group,

If a lot of people are advocating for a buy, know that chances are that the market might decline, won't occur immediately but eventually

The duration will be determined by how long the information on that set asset has been in circulations