@colinrtalbot Your own tweet says it will rely on human action for a very long time (but not forever) into the future having earlier said there is no plausible way AI could wipe out humans. Which is it?
It looks like all @ventuals listed hip3 perp markets (OpenAI, Anthropic, SpaceX) are currently pinned at the oracle upper band (+20%), and market sells or liquidations aren’t executing.
The charts look like a slow grind up, but structurally the price is stuck.
Ventuals caps the mark price within ±20% of the oracle. The oracle itself is built from a 50/50 mix of Notice valuation data (offchain secondary trades and fundraising marks) and the 8h ema of the mark price.
When the mark stays near the upper band, the ema gets pulled upward, the oracle follows, and the upper band expands again. This causes the price to hover near the ceiling for structural reasons rather than genuine supply and demand.
Liquidity makes the situation worse. The ask side is almost empty, and the funding rate is extremely low (1/500 of Hyperliquid), so there’s little incentive to provide shorts. Once the mark reaches oracle +20%, there’s effectively no mechanism to pull it back down.
Orders outside the band are blocked, there are no asks, and market sells or liquidations can’t execute. Notice valuations may be lower, but traders can’t short at those levels because the band prevents placing orders where actual fair value might be, and ask liquidity never forms.
So what looks like a breakout is not price discovery imo. It’s the interaction of the oracle design, liquidity vacuum, and ultra low funding. Maker point incentives did push liquidity toward bids earlier, but Ventuals shifted rewards toward asks this week, so it’s not the main driver of the current issue.
Im increasingly convinced 99% of crypto projects exist solely to extract liquidity from retail traders and not to provide any real innovation or utility
every morning i make my wife a cappuccino for breakfast but since she got pregnant i started lacing it with 10g of creatine without telling her
my child is going to be huge
@Cbb0fe The right question is whether it is even physically possible to create a blockchain that fast.
The light takes approximately 200 milliseconds to travel around the planet. You need to sync blocks, too.
do you guys actually think it’s possible for new traders to turn a couple sol into generational wealth anymore?
last year it was actually do-able
you could buy coins that were just funny and make money 50%+ of the time
nowadays everyones got 10 monitors to pvp 100k shitters
how can any newbie win?
People will soon be telling you that bear markets and all else are impossible, that we have realized new paradigms. 180k is likely programmed at this point, su’s resting deribit orders at 200k may finally be filled. Then many of us will die, and we will start again