Gaonomics

Economics, geopolitics, finance. Harvard @Kennedy_School MPA/ID. @Arsenal fan. All views are my own.

[Gaonomics @gaonomics]

Efficient market hypothesis back in fashion.

[Gaonomics @gaonomics]

@TheStalwart Anta definitely. It’s sort of Geely of China athleisure brands. Owns so many global brands

[Gaonomics @gaonomics]

2026: the go-nowhere economy. K-shape is still live and well. Macy’s CEO points to a E-shaped economy. Stagnation for sure. Add some inflation on top of that and we are in for a very rough ride.

[Gaonomics @gaonomics]

America all in AI, China AI in all. Not a bad characterization.

[Gaonomics @gaonomics]

This Davos is more colorful than expected, and certainly is and can be the most useful one in a while.

[Gaonomics @gaonomics]

Rise of Chinese domestic car brands, a proper gray rhino.

[Lei 𝕏ing邢磊 @leixing77]

25 years of Porsche in China in one chart. Last time sales were below 50,000 units was 2014.
#bloodbath

[Gaonomics @gaonomics]

I actually still do not know what token means in GenAI, can someone give a plain explanation?

[Gaonomics @gaonomics]

Few people fully grasp the seismic changes happening in the global auto industry. One case in point: German OEMs, for decades comfortably profiting off the Chinese market, continue to see sales decline EVEN AFTER some 30-40% price cut, largely due to the rise of Chinese brands.

[Gaonomics @gaonomics]

You know from minute 1 of this game Caicedo is gonna be sent off. #CHEARS

[Gaonomics @gaonomics]

Informative piece on modern Chinese tech ethos and philosophical underpinnings.

[afra wang @afrazhaowang]

my new essay “The China Tech Canon” is out in @asteriskmgzn's 12th issue, themed “Book.” link in reply.

in this piece, i trace the intellectual map of china’s tech founders by asking a simple question: what books have shaped their worldview?

what emerged is that the “china tech canon” shares deep roots with the “silicon valley canon” that @patrickc and @Scholars_Stage once outlined—works by paul graham, jim collins, peter thiel, and biographies of elon musk (and many others) circulate widely. but the chinese canon also branches into its own distinct traditions: what i call the red canon, the grey canon, and the fanstasy canon. alongside the western playbook of disruption and ambition, chinese entrepreneurs also draw from maoist texts, confucian ethics, martial-arts fantasies, and liu cixin's ruthless universe.

i’ve loved @asteriskmgzn for a long time, and it was a joy to become friends with the founder+editor @clarabcollier during our china trip in august that @jasminewsun organized, and to work with her on this piece. many thanks to @jkeatn and @clarabcollier's wonderful editing.

also thanks to @danwwang @Scholars_Stage and @Zac_Aztec for their feedback.

@danwwang asked a few great follow-up questions that i might later expand into a sequel on my substack, Concurrent.

[Gaonomics @gaonomics]

@stevehou Polemic

[Gaonomics @gaonomics]

Sums it up.

[Gaonomics @gaonomics]

Quite a Friday it is.

Today I read FT lunch with Lighthizer during lunch, thinking about having TACO for dinner.

[Gaonomics @gaonomics]

@Brad_Setser Very very strange why he said that. Multiple equilibrium? Hard to think how the alternative can be sustained..

[Gaonomics @gaonomics]

@Brad_Setser Amazing over course of 3+ decades sec Bessent would find himself on both sides of speculative attacks.

[Gaonomics @gaonomics]

@Brad_Setser The current competitive profile of the country is such that inflation fight and reserve building are directly opposed to each other. Reserve building would almost certainly dictate a peso rate that doesn’t help with inflation dynamics.

[Gaonomics @gaonomics]

@biancoresearch Fundamentally, the rise of superstar firms and an aggressive form of network effect is a more recent phenomenon.

[Gaonomics @gaonomics]

Can someone pls share a link of the MIT report? I mean the report that presumably crashed the market.

[Gaonomics @gaonomics]

Economics students of our generation—taught mostly by students of Stan Fischer—had very little direct interaction with him, but we are fully aware of the towering figure that he is in the golden era of economics that was the 1970s at MIT.

R.I.P. Stan Fischer.

[Gaonomics @gaonomics]

@spectatorindex is not a serious breaking news account.