gervinho

[Rep. Pramila Jayapal @RepJayapal]

Yesterday, I was notified of the 50th death in ICE custody since Trump returned to office.

This is unprecedented and further proof that ICE and their private, for-profit prison contractors should not be sent another cent of taxpayer dollars. There must be accountability.

[gervinho @gbuzz911]

@Remzztrades $HYLN

[Tekkers Foot @tekkersfoot]

Lamine Yamal is UNREAL. 🤯🇪🇸

https://t.co/3hOZE8Dh00

[gervinho @gbuzz911]

@daytradernepes @ripster47 why trade everyday

[Z @ZeeContrarian1]

𝗠𝗢𝗡𝗨𝗠𝗘𝗡𝗧𝗔𝗟 𝗦𝗛𝗢𝗥𝗧 $VIX 𝗢𝗣𝗣𝗢𝗥𝗧𝗨𝗡𝗜𝗧𝗬 𝗨𝗣𝗢𝗡 𝗨𝗦

We are about to get an opportunity to enter what I believe will be the best trade of the next 12 months.

The $VIX is spiking toward 30.

Before doing anything, it is important to understand why.

The spike is driven by the current situation around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz, with crude oil approaching $100 per barrel.

Whenever volatility spikes like this you must ask a simple question:

Is this a systemic crisis or temporary panic?

During the Global Financial Crisis and COVID, $VIX was effectively uncapped.

Why?

Because nobody knew what would happen next. The system itself looked like it might break.

In those environments $VIX can go anywhere. But the current situation is completely different.

If you believe, like I do, that the spike in oil and $VIX is driven by temporary panic over a solvable geopolitical situation, then the conclusion becomes obvious.

All the largest powers on Earth have a massive interest in keeping the Strait of Hormuz open.

This situation will be resolved.

Could it take a week?
A month?

Sure.

But that does not change where volatility will be a year from now. And that is the timeframe that matters.

I am very close to guaranteeing that over the next year, shorting $VIX will generate at least a 30% return.

The best way to express this trade is through $UVXY / $VXX option risk reversals.

I will explain the exact structure later.

For context

On May 8, 2024, when $UVXY was trading at $55, I guaranteed that volatility would collapse.

Since then $UVXY has undergone a 1 for 5 reverse split.

Adjusted for the split $55 is equivalent to about $11 today, even after the recent 60% spike in $VIX.
That represents roughly an 80% collapse.

This is exactly how long-term short volatility trades work due to contango and mean reversion. Do yourself a favor and use the weekend, if you don’t know what those are, to learn how they work and why $VXX and $UVXY are guaranteed to go to zero unless the world ends.

Now we may be getting another entry point.

I do not guarantee what happens next week.

I do not guarantee what happens next month.

But I can say with extremely high confidence: six months to one year from now $UVXY and $VXX will be much much lower than today.

And if you position correctly this trade has a very real chance of becoming the best trade in your portfolio over the next 12 months.

I currently have a small position, next week I plan to enter a larger position using $UVXY / $VXX put(buy) and call(sell) option risk reversals.

Opportunities like this do not appear often, I plan to pull the trigger next week.

[Hedgie @HedgieMarkets]

🦔 Jason Calacanis says his company hit $300/day per agent using Claude's API at only 10-20% capacity, which scales to around $100,000/year per agent. Chamath Palihapitiya added that he's now asking "what's the token budget for our best devs?" and said AI-assisted developers need to be at least 2x as productive just to justify the cost. He said this is actively happening inside his company or he'll run out of money.

My Take
This was always the obvious trajectory. AI providers subsidized usage to drive adoption, and now the subsidies are ending. The consumer plans are likely loss leaders subsidized by VC money, and the gap between what individuals pay and what it actually costs to run these models is closing fast.

I'm struck by the surprise from people who should know better. These are sophisticated tech investors just now realizing that running agents 24/7 burns through tokens at rates that dwarf human salaries. A human engineer runs on coffee, remembers context from years ago, builds institutional knowledge, and doesn't rack up exponential costs the longer they think about a problem.
Agents waste tokens constantly, researching and validating things that don't need validation, spinning up subagents for simple tasks when a straightforward approach would work fine. The companies that fired engineers to replace them with AI agents are learning that you can't negotiate with an API bill the way you can renegotiate a salary. And unlike employees who might stick around during a rough patch, the meter just keeps running.

Hedgie🤗

[Z @ZeeContrarian1]

How to Become Stevie Cohen

When I was 23, fresh out of a top university in New York, I interviewed at SAC Capital (later Point72). I remember walking onto the trading floor and seeing Stevie Cohen sitting in the middle-no office, no separation, while traders around him pitched ideas all day.

That’s how trading works. And that’s how you should use X. You don’t need to be an expert in every field-Stevie Cohen isn’t. His edge is wisdom and logic: knowing which ideas make sense.

The key is to surround yourself with people who’ve proven excellence in their fields. Ignore generalists talking biotech or tech. Find true experts, listen carefully, do your own work, and decide. That’s how you become your own Stevie Cohen-at home, with very little capital.

Key Points

•Follow experts, not generalists, people with long, proven track records in their field.
•Treat X like a trading desk: ideas flow in, you don’t accept them blindly.
•Your edge is logic and judgment, not expertise in every domain.
•When an idea appears, slow down: research it, stress-test it, see if it makes sense.
•Ignore noise, hype, and hot takes. Signal comes from excellence over time.

[gervinho @gbuzz911]

@TeslaLupo @Marco_D Strongest player in the squad...you need muscles to battle in the midfield

[gervinho @gbuzz911]

@RensingTrades why no stop loss

[gervinho @gbuzz911]

@soturf1 @Prof_heist very important to size down

[gervinho @gbuzz911]

@StockMarketNerd portion sizes are too small...

[gervinho @gbuzz911]

@Ksidiii 7000 by next week if trump wants it

[gervinho @gbuzz911]

@assface_burner 680 first

[gervinho @gbuzz911]

@BenKizemchuk btc rejected resistance...hopefully qqq will do the same

[gervinho @gbuzz911]

@simpletrader77 @unusual_whales kind of like using gpu on demand

[gervinho @gbuzz911]

@BenKizemchuk may be they are selling stocks other than mag 7...holding the market

[gervinho @gbuzz911]

@_Investinq @DarioCpx

[gervinho @gbuzz911]

@investingluc institutions won't buy here without a correction

[gervinho @gbuzz911]

@ZeeContrarian1 market ath is skewed by mag 7 imo