GaUrI

Ingeniero. Msc Finanzas. Libertario

[GaUrI @gchuber88]

https://t.co/y7aMGSxr4K

@DrJStrategy I didn't mean to sound disrespectful here. No need to block me.

[GaUrI @gchuber88]

James, you should consider deleting this post. The spread only says the SOFR swap rate is below the same maturity Treasury. It does not say the Fed will cut. The path is in the level of the swap. Spot SOFR is about 3.88%. The 2-year swap is near 4.65% and the 5-year near 4.76%, so the market is pricing hikes, not cuts. Treasuries are even higher (2-year 4.83%, 5-year 5.07%). Both curves are signaling higher policy rates. The negative spread is term premium and Treasury supply, not a hidden cutting cycle.

[GaUrI @gchuber88]

James, you should consider deleting this post. The spread only says the SOFR swap rate is below the same maturity Treasury. It does not say the Fed will cut. The path is in the level of the swap. Spot SOFR is about 3.88%. The 2-year swap is near 4.65% and the 5-year near 4.76%, so the market is pricing hikes, not cuts. Treasuries are even higher (2-year 4.83%, 5-year 5.07%). Both curves are signaling higher policy rates. The negative spread is term premium and Treasury supply, not a hidden cutting cycle.

[GaUrI @gchuber88]

@HenrikZeberg Henrik, you’re tuning the model insample. Those three extra months past the July 2026 “start” already cost ~80 bp on the 10-year.

[GaUrI @gchuber88]

@DrJStrategy Or
maybe breakevens stayed anchored because the Fed moved. You don’t have the counterfactual. If they hadn’t moved, the fear porn might have actually shown up in the market. You don’t know. You are looking at the treated path and inventing the untreated one.

[GaUrI @gchuber88]

@HenrikZeberg July 1: “today is the day you rotate into long-duration bonds. Rates are about to come down.”
10Y that day: 4.48%
10Y now: 5.24%That’s +76bp.
Bonds didn’t rally. They got smoked

https://t.co/F4yTp1Lu3L

[GaUrI @gchuber88]

@MichaelMOTTCM High yield market does have a rate component, you know... cleaner comparison is with spread

[GaUrI @gchuber88]

With all due respect, people care about getting insight into what the Fed will do, not what the Fed should or shouldn't be doing. You have been suggesting to fade the market pricing in rate hikes for weeks now. So while you may eventually be right regarding macro and inflation, the truth is your timing was off.

[GaUrI @gchuber88]

@nickgiva1 Brazil might be the strongest economy in the world then.

[GaUrI @gchuber88]

@lhamtil Now do the math with current debt/gdp ratios

[GaUrI @gchuber88]

@fabrizioruebano Bs

[GaUrI @gchuber88]

@SpiffyMMA Hate to be that guy but...
Aztecs - Mexico
Incas - Perú

[GaUrI @gchuber88]

@HenrikZeberg How many hikes does it need to prove you wrong?

[GaUrI @gchuber88]

@DrJStrategy You should give up on september hike and focus on follow up hikes. September hike is a fact, for the good or bad reasons.

[GaUrI @gchuber88]

@TreasuryBonds1 Now do interest expense as % of GDP...

[GaUrI @gchuber88]

@TaviCosta At least do YoY on the index

[GaUrI @gchuber88]

@gastonreyno Gano justito tonga. No cubrió su "price tag". Al debe

[GaUrI @gchuber88]

@commonsenseplay It is fine that you like bonds here, but it is also fair to tell your followers that you also liked them 50 basis points below current levels

[GaUrI @gchuber88]

@HenrikZeberg Fiscal picture is extremely different

[GaUrI @gchuber88]

@commonsenseplay A broken clock is right twice a day

[GaUrI @gchuber88]

@_fsuarezb @fintual Buen producto