Razz M’Tazz

Engineer. Ga Tech & UT Austin. Power Plant Manager. Farmer, Libertarian. Austrian economics. Gold. Permanent portfolio sans Long Term Bonds (for now). Skeptic.

[Adam Townsend @adamscrabble]

Never forget what they took from us

[The Extreme Music Enthusiast @TheExtremeMusi1]

Masterclass. 🎸

Mark Knopfler performing the epic “Telegraph Road” live in Seville, 2015.

This is what pure dedication to craft looks, sounds, and feels like. There will never be another Mark Knopfler.

A true legend at work.

[Veles @velesxbt]

A Stanford mathematician who spent 10 years as a professional magician just described the market in one sentence:

"I've spent my life on two tricks: making a rigged deck look random, and making a random one look rigged. The market is the first trick, and almost nobody catches it."

That's Persi Diaconis. He has a free lecture that asks one question: does anything actually happen at random? The answer is: far less than you think.

The market is his first trick in the wild. It looks like pure chance. Buried inside is a faint rig, a 50.75% tilt no eye can see. Your gut reads a losing week as a broken system and a hot streak as skill. Wrong both times. The tilt is invisible to human intuition, which is exactly why funds hand the decision to the math.

None of it is hidden. Diaconis has taught it for decades. The probability goes back to 1713. The lecture is free.

Here's the trap: you feel every win and every loss, but you cannot feel the average. And the average is the only thing that pays. It takes thousands of trades for a 51% edge to separate from luck, and almost everyone quits long before then.

The math is free. The patience to trust it past your own eyes is the edge.

[Tyler @TylerDurden]

Two weeks to film. $3mil budget.

The greatest financial movie of all time.

[@jason @Jason]

They took everything from us

[Dire Straits 🎸 @DireStraits77]

Okay, there are millions of songs out there, but there are no words to describe the rise of this masterpiece. ❤️

[金融世界 Financial World @FinWorld]

传奇投资者杰里米·格兰瑟姆，人称泡沫预言家，以精准预测过1989年日本房地产泡沫、2000年互联网泡沫、2008年金融海啸闻名。近日他参与播客，谈到了对当前市场的悲观态度：华尔街永远不会告诉你离场，AI救了市场一次，但羽毛终究会落地。下面是他的观点精选：
1/美股当前估值风险很高，市场可能把高利润率和高市盈率同时放大，形成双重高估。
2/AI打断了2022年的泡沫破裂进程，但没有消除泡沫本身。
3/华尔街很少主动提醒投资者离场，因为看空市场存在巨大的职业风险和商业风险。
4/市场顶部常见信号是上涨集中在少数大盘股，边缘成长股和高Beta股票提前走弱。
5/如果泡沫真正破裂，标普500可能面临较大回撤，通常会跌50%以上。
6/未来10年美国市场可能跑输非美发达市场和新兴市场。
7/真正值得关注的机会在绿色转型、太阳能、电池储能、电动车和相关风险投资领域。

[Emotion & Music @Emotion78687]

Dutch Opera Singer Maria Fiselier covering Eminem's "Lose Yourself", in 2018. What an amazing rendition! 👏

[That Week In SNL @ThatWeekInSNL]

An absolute insane tightrope to walk as the last damn sketch of the night but everyone killed it. Instantly in the pantheon of Sarah-led sketches and felt like it was beamed in from a completely different show. Very good stuff.

[JP Sears @AwakenWithJP]

WHY are we at war with Iran? This should eliminate any confusion. You're welcome.

[Razz M’Tazz @gene_grindle]

@LukeGromen Build a man a fire and he is warm for a day, set a man on fire and he is warm for the rest of his life.

[Razz M’Tazz @gene_grindle]

@FinanceLancelot I agree there is trouble. Disagree with your math. The refinery shutdowns and Hormuz impact do not stack. It is the same oil

[Razz M’Tazz @gene_grindle]

@AvsRobin Purchasing power parity

[Razz M’Tazz @gene_grindle]

@Arrogance_0024 Polands doesn’t have carriers

[Razz M’Tazz @gene_grindle]

@KimDotcom Waaaay more than that. Combat pay. Lifetime Disability for 10,000 GIs with traumatic brain injuries. Foreign aid to rebuild all the damage to our Allies. Expended munitions. 10 trillion in market losses. So many line items…

[Razz M’Tazz @gene_grindle]

@sungleeiq Trouble is, to defend a ship you gave to defend all 1000 miles of the Iranian coastline and 100,000 square miles of Persian gulf water.

To sink a ship, all you need is a missile, drone, or mine at any point. It is the Anna Karina principle. Any single exception is all it takes

[Razz M’Tazz @gene_grindle]

@DeepThroatIPO You can make it up on volume though

[Razz M’Tazz @gene_grindle]

@Amena__Bakr Hormuz flows waaaay more than 2.8 million bbls