Gene Menez

Dad+husband | photographer+sports writer | proud Sports Illustrated alum | horse racing+poker+golf addict | Sports Jeopardy! champ | BCBC qualifier | Lucky guy

[Gene Menez @genemenez]

19 Golden Tempo always comes with a run. His La Derby was his first with blinkers and an improvement over his previous races on some figures. He loves the rail so if Jose Ortiz can get him over, look for him late. Trainer Cherie DeVaux's horses are running #KentuckyDerby

[Gene Menez @genemenez]

And that's it folks. Good luck to all! #KentuckyDerby

[Gene Menez @genemenez]

21 Great White, 22 Ocelli and 23 Robusta are longshots for a reason. Of those, I prefer Great White, an enormous gray gelding whose trainer says wasn't right before the Blue Grass Stakes. He's in danger of getting caught wide though #KentuckyDerby

[Gene Menez @genemenez]

19 Golden Tempo always comes with a run. His La Derby was his first with blinkers and an improvement over his previous races on some figures. He loves the rail so if Jose Ortiz can get him over, look for him late. Trainer Cherie DeVaux's horses are running #KentuckyDerby

[Gene Menez @genemenez]

Critics say 18 Further Ado can't run outside of Keeneland and is due to bounce. But he has been training up a storm at Churchill Downs, so I have no doubts. He also drew the perfect post to get his outside stalking trip. He's my pick to win the #KentuckyDerby

[Gene Menez @genemenez]

People question 17 Six Speed's ability to get the distance, but he's a son of Not This Time out of a Medaglia d'Oro mare. Are we sure he can't go 10 furlongs? He certainly has speed and will be near the pace early, but he can hang on longer than his odds suggest #KentuckyDerby

[Gene Menez @genemenez]

16 Pavlovian is a different horse since changing jockeys and running style and adding blinkers. He gave Emerging Market all he could handle in the La Derby and his experience means he should enjoy this rodeo. But he may be disadvantaged by this wide post #KentuckyDerby

[Gene Menez @genemenez]

15 Emerging Market has a big chance to buck decades of #KentuckyDerby history, given he has raced just twice and didn't start at 2. But he was ready to race last year and is 2-for-2 at 3. His ceiling may be the highest. Jockey Flavien Prat always gives his mounts a great ride

[Gene Menez @genemenez]

Of the California shippers, I prefer 14 Potente. This $2.4 million purchase is bred to go long, and I think he will sit just off the pace in the #KentuckyDerby versus setting the pace in the Santa Anita Derby. Baffert has won this six times though this one seems a cut below those

[Gene Menez @genemenez]

12 Chief Wallabee is this year's wiseguy horse because of how he has trained with blinkers at Churchill Downs. (Mott wins at a 20% clip when adding blinkers.) If the blinkers move him up at all, he has a big chance because he was right there in the Florida Derby #KentuckyDerby

[Gene Menez @genemenez]

11 Incredibolt has a chance at a big number. He's 2-for-2 at Churchill Downs, he can run inside horses, he's coming off a runaway win in the Virginia Derby and he has looked like $1 million in the mornings. He needs to get faster but can certainly do so #KentuckyDerby

[Gene Menez @genemenez]

I also don't know what to do with 10 Wonder Dean. He showed a nice acceleration in catching Six Speed in the UAE Derby but Six Speed may be a miler. At least the jockey has #KentuckyDerby experience

[Gene Menez @genemenez]

8 So Happy winning would be a great story but terrible for my wallet because I just can't see a son of Runhappy winning the Derby. I also prefer Potente out of the Santa Anita Derby #KentuckyDerby

[Gene Menez @genemenez]

I don't know what to do with 7 Danon Bourbon. In his races he shows tactical speed and a powerful kick, but the quality of his fields is questionable. This is his jockey's first Derby, which worries me so I'm leaving him off my tickets #KentuckyDerby

[Gene Menez @genemenez]

6 Commandment. He can run inside, behind and even between horses. I think he's going to get a ground-saving trip (as long as Litmus Test doesn't hammer him coming out of the gate) and be prominent in the stretch. I trust him most to run 1-2-3 #KentuckyDerby

[Gene Menez @genemenez]

4 Litmus Test was a leading contender earlier this year but went the wrong way and will need a major form reversal in a short period of time. Note: jockey Martin Garcia sometimes leaves the gate sideways, which could be bad news for ... #KentuckyDerby

[Gene Menez @genemenez]

Does 3 Intrepido have anything left after that crazy fast workout at Churchill? I'm betting against it, but Thoro-graph says he's usable. He definitely should be prominent from the start though #KentuckyDerby

[Gene Menez @genemenez]

2 Albus is just too slow and comes out of a bad Wood Memorial. He'll need a pace meltdown and a clean, ground-saving trip. Maybe he passes tired horses at the end #KentuckyDerby

[Gene Menez @genemenez]

Time for the annual horse-by-horse #KentuckyDerby analysis. Buckle up. The No. 1 post drama is overblown for Renegade. He can find trouble from any gate and will be coming from off the pace no matter what gate he gets. If you liked him before the draw, don't leave him now

[SportsLine @SportsLine]

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