Securebet

polymarket trader @securebet

[Securebet @germain_marcano]

🚀 Just checked my Polymarket stats and I’m RANK #5172 with over $12K in gains. Mom said “stop gambling,” I said “it’s forecasting.” 😎📈 @Polymarket

[Securebet @germain_marcano]

@Mask4che @penguin_pmkt @HiveLiveHQ @Polymarket @PolymarketTrade Good luck bro

[Securebet @germain_marcano]

@LucyPN @LucyPN https://t.co/AtYLl6a2is checa este video y me dices

[Securebet @germain_marcano]

Secure bets, solid rewards. 🥂

Sitting comfortably in the top 1.68% on Polymarket with $706 in LP rewards. We’re just getting started. 🚀 #Crypto #Polymarket #airdrop #PredictionMarkets #Web3

[Securebet @germain_marcano]

Will Seoul hit 17°C today? 📉

@Polymarket is eyeing South Korea’s weather for June 10. Right now, "Yes" sits at just 14% odds, making it a risky but high-reward play. With a $27.43 entry, the payout is a cool $202!

Got the ultimate forecast or just feeling lucky?

[Alter Ego @AlterEgo_eth]

11 Best Weather Forecasting Models for Polymarket Markets Right Now (Global + Regional Breakdown)

Understanding their regional strengths and update frequencies can dramatically improve your probability estimates and win rate

Here’s the complete regional breakdown of the best models you should be using

> Global models - work for any city

• ECMWF - the gold standard for global forecasting, best accuracy at 5–10 day horizon
• ECMWF AIFS - AI-powered version of ECMWF, same global coverage, faster updates
• GFS - solid global coverage, free, widely used as baseline
• ICON-Global - reliable global model from DWD, good backup to ECMWF

> USA + Canada (LA, NYC, Chicago, Dallas, Miami, SF, Atlanta, Austin, Denver, Seattle)

• HRRR - best short-horizon model for US cities, updates every hour, 3km resolution
• GEM - very strong for both US and Canada
• GFS - solid baseline, pairs well with HRRR

> Europe (London, Paris, Madrid, Milan, Amsterdam, Munich, Warsaw, Helsinki, Istanbul, Ankara, Moscow)

• ICON-EU - the strongest regional model across all of Europe
• AROME - high resolution for Western Europe: France, Spain, Italy, UK
• UKMO - best for London and Northern Europe specifically
• ECMWF - always worth including as the global reference

> Central Europe (Warsaw, Munich, Milan, Amsterdam)

• ICON-D2 - highest resolution for Germany, France, Benelux, Poland, Austria, Czech Republic
• ICON-D2 EPS - ensemble version of ICON-D2, gives you probability distribution instead of single forecast. Use this when the market is binary and close to the threshold

> Asia (Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Chengdu, Chongqing, Wuhan, Qingdao, Hong Kong, Taipei, Singapore, Jakarta, Manila, Lucknow)

• JMA-GSM - strong across East Asia and Pacific
• JMA-MSM - high resolution specifically for Japan and nearby areas
• ECMWF + ICON-Global - best global options for Southeast Asia and South Asia

> Middle East & Africa (Jeddah, Tel Aviv, Cape Town, Karachi)

• ECMWF - dominant choice, no strong regional alternatives here
• GFS - reliable backup

The practical workflow: always start with ECMWF as your anchor. Then layer in the regional model that covers your city. Where you have an ensemble version (ICON-D2 EPS) - use it

A single deterministic forecast tells you the expected value. An ensemble tells you the distribution. For binary threshold markets, the distribution is what actually matters

Save this list. If I missed any models, please feel free to mention them in the replies

[maskache @Mask4che]

The weather market recently saw a huge drop in liquidity, and the last 2 days certainly won't help.

Yes, we can increase the rewards, but that doesn't attract weather traders who will actually stick around.

What I think is the real root of the problem?

Information asymmetry between pro and newb 👇 (1/10)

@Polymarket @PolymarketTrade

[Securebet @germain_marcano]

@Mask4che @Wethrnet Let me add @C0cocrypto to join us, he will also be a great addition to the team he is known as kamikazetrading

[Securebet @germain_marcano]

@Mask4che @Wethrnet Totally agree with @Mask4che Seoul's weather god, thanks for the invitation, let's build together something real, right now we need more liquidity in the weather market

[PolySuccubus @polysuccubus]

From $4,000 to $20,000 on Weather Trading on Polymarket

I was scrolling through Polymarket Leaderboard and found a pretty interesting profile.

Profile: [https://t.co/sXnBK5j138]

The guy goes by the name [securebet] and he mostly trades weather markets.

It’s not some crazy hype story, just a very consistent approach to prediction markets.

He’s been around since July 2024 and has already made over 3,800 trades.

Here is what his stats look like right now:

Total Profit: +$20,079
Total Gains: +$26,567
Global Rank: #5,951
Win Rate: 57.0%

I took a look at his recent history to see how he actually makes money.

He mostly trades on temperature ranges in different cities, and the ROIs are wild.

Top trades:

> Will Edmundo González win the 2024 Venezuela presidential election?
Entry price: 13.9c Invested: $640 Profit: +$550 +86%

> NYC Temp: 48°F or higher on March 1st?
Entry price: 49.9c Invested: $692 Profit: +$523 +75.7%

> Seattle Temp: between 48-49°F on January 10th?
Entry price: 0.9c Invested: $5.33 Profit: +$438 +8,232%

> NYC Temp: 37°F or higher on Dec 31st?
Entry price: 21.9c Invested: $99.95 Profit: +$327 +328%

> Seattle Temp: between 48-49°F on February 28th?
Entry price: 96.4c Invested: $409.88 Profit: +$319 +78%

> NYC Temp: between 55-56°F on February 27th?
Entry price: 3.8c Invested: $12.62 Profit: +$293 +2,322%

You can copy all him trades so simple with best tg bot on Polymarket - Polygun

Connect and copy: [https://t.co/1bJgVFtW3M]

It seems like weather markets are becoming a real thing on Polymarket lately.

While everyone is focused on crypto prices, people are making money just by checking the forecast.

The liquidity is there, and the opportunities for high returns look pretty solid.

Might be a good time to start looking into these markets yourself.

[Yarchi @undefinedKi]

Win rate lies.

This guy didn't know win rate was supposed to matter.

So he made $20K winning one out of three trades.

securebet. 3,809 predictions. Weather markets only.

2,360 losses. 1,571 wins.

He buys contracts at 1 to 5 cents. Most of them die. The ones that hit pay 50x, 90x, 200x.

Biggest single trade:
> 9,244% ROI on a 1.1c NYC weather contract.
> Seattle NO at 0.9c: 8,232% ROI.

Losing 6 out of 10 trades feels awful. Until you check the PnL.

Proof: https://t.co/rDkE1I3WqJ

[Securebet @germain_marcano]

Coming back strong after a few days off! 🚀

As shown in imagenpng, I locked in a total win of $145.31 on Polymarket The highlight was the Seoul trade: turning $39.56 into $134 for a massive +240% return! Also hit a solid +170% on London

Discipline and data pay off. We’re back

[Securebet @germain_marcano]

@0xMarchyel @Mask4che @Polymarket @PolymarketTrade Lol mine too. Team maskache 🤣

[Securebet @germain_marcano]

✅ ¡GRAN VICTORIA EN POLYMARKET! 📷Hoy cobré mi apuesta📷Mercado: ¿Lowest Nueva York que no estaría entre 58-59°F el 6 de mayo?
Invertido: $527
Ganancia total: $1,113
Beneficio neto: +$586 📷unete y gana tambien https://t.co/NNBekCRXIv #Polymarket #Ganancias #NYCWeather

[Securebet @germain_marcano]

I'm number 350,256 on the waitlist for Polymarket Perps. If you want to be early, sign up here: https://t.co/hsCq1t34n0

[zostaff @zostaff]

1 + 4 strongest repos for weather trading on Polymarket I found over the last few weeks. They pull $250k+ per season combined. All free. All open source.

https://t.co/qNhC2foPdb -> replaces Bloomberg Weather Terminal 31-member GFS ensemble forecasts. Trades weather temperature markets on both Kalshi (KXHIGH series) and Polymarket simultaneously. Kelly criterion sizing. Signal calibration with Brier score. React dashboard. All data sources free.

https://t.co/nKbsqithuQ -> replaces "city-center" forecast wrappers that lose money the only weather bot that resolves on actual airport stations. NYC on LaGuardia (KLGA), Dallas on Love Field (KDAL). the difference between airport and city center is 3-8°F. On 1°F bin markets that's the difference between winning and losing. Kelly + EV filtering + simulation mode.

https://t.co/iUk7eP0iLi -> replaces $200/mo statistical arb tools Gaussian distribution model for temperature thresholds. P(>80°F) computed via scipy norm.cdf with NOAA RMSE. Detects 62%+ edges when market disagrees with physics. Black-Scholes for crypto markets in the same bot. Polymarket CLOB + NOAA + Pyth network.

https://t.co/i8gqRuJgPt -> replaces a full quant research team 60+ cities worldwide. Ingests TAF/METAR aviation data, JMA AMeDAS Japan, KMA Korea, HKO Hong Kong. EMOS + LGBM models. Calibrated probability engine as primary. multi-day DEB forecast in browser extension. Telegram bot included.

https://t.co/KdgLz8gvBf -> replaces $30/mo prediction platforms TypeScript implementation. NWS forecasts for 6 US cities. Kelly-driven sizing. simulation mode with $1000 paper balance. Simple .env config. one command to run.

like + bookmark you'll need this when you stop building from scratch

[Recogard @recogard]

A Chinese computer science student built a bot that automatically manages your limit orders on Polymarket to maximize liquidity rewards and released it on GitHub for free…

Here is how it works step by step:

This bot constantly monitors all your active orders, compares them to the live order book and automatically moves them to the most profitable positions for reward farming.

Usually, finding high reward markets is not so difficult, but the real problem is keeping your orders in the reward zone, because these markets are very volatile and prices change every minute.

Normally, u have to sit and manually cancel and replace your orders every time the price moves.

But this bot automates that entire process. It tracks all your open orders, calculates the optimal positions for farming, and moves them instantly whenever the market changes.

For example, lets say you have a BUY order at 0.45. The current best bid is 0.44 and the best ask is 0.48, so the mid price is 0.46. The reward zone (max spread) is 0.04 (meaning the reward range is 0.42-0.46).

This way, the bot determines that your current position is too close to the mid price, risking a bad fill. It calculates that the optimal position in this scenario is 0.44 - the centre of the reward zone.

Then, it automatically cancels your 0.45 order and places a new one at 0.44 (further from the mid price to better balance risk and rewards).

This bot performs all these actions in seconds every time the price moves, without any human involvement.

The main goal is to constantly keep your orders in the reward zone without taking unnecessary risks.

GitHub: https://t.co/nvb96dUgm5

[Securebet @germain_marcano]

¡$210 al bolsillo! 💸 En @Polymarket los datos pagan. Solo hay que saber leer el clima. ¡Únete y ganemos juntos! 📈✨ #Polymarket #Trading #Win💸

[Securebet @germain_marcano]

Welcome to the new "The Lowest Temp" market on Polymarket! 🌡️📉 Ready to predict the cold? Join the game and start trading now! ❄️

Follow me: @securebet 🚀

#Polymarket #Trading #Weather

[Kamikazetrading @C0cocrypto]

new market lowest nyc, not bad.
join to polymarket now
https://t.co/Eqf80W5HFH

[Securebet @germain_marcano]

I just won $63.38 on @Polymarket! check the new market the lowest temperature in polymarket is very interesting

Join me and put your money where your mouth is: https://t.co/OQ1wRWSKdD