For China and other advanced economies, gold is a hedge and strategic asset for the future. They buy to store wealth and for industrial applications. For us, it’s a survival asset for the present. We are selling not because of strategic economic choice but as it's one of the few major options to replenish our foreign currency reserves which always trend at near zero.
Technically speaking, this isn't "bold" it’s a necessary, albeit slow, attempt to catch up with global financial standards. While the new regulations are more relaxed than before, significant restrictions remain.
Years of heavy-handed restrictive regulations have forced banks, users, and regulators into a perpetual game of hide-and-seek enabling the parallel market to flourish and leaving our country's financial system lagging behind even our immediate neighbors.
The long-term implications are positive, though we should expect some degree of short-term capital flight until trust is fully restored. When restrictions continue to ease (like this one), trust will grow. Banks now have a massive responsibility to modernize their accessibility including international payment cards, internet and mobile banking for international transfers and eliminate insane service charges for outbound wire transfers (4% of the amount of transfer- a fee that doesn't doesn't exist in the global financial system. If the banks remain slow to change, parallel market continue to thrive and the pain from the forex reserve shortage continues. If they adapt fast and succeed, the chronic foreign currency drought could finally become a thing of the past.
@EyobTolina
A government is the “biggest gang,” with a local monopoly on violence.
It’s good at preventing and stopping things.
It’s bad at building and running things.
Its main job is law and order, and a government which fails at that, is a failed government.
🫀 Day 12 — Black Lion Hospital | Mission #4 Update 🇪🇹
Reporting from Black Lion Specialized Hospital, Dr. Tesfaye Telila (Piedmont Atlanta) shared today’s milestone:
✅ 132 life-saving procedures completed so far during this mission — including pediatric cardiac surgeries, transcatheter interventions, and adult open-heart surgeries.
The team remains strong, though understandably tired, with three more working days to go.
From the cardiac surgery team:
🔹 Dr. Jim Kauten reported 24 open-heart procedures performed across all partner hospitals. Today’s focus is on two mitral–tricuspid cases, with two more planned Thursday and one Friday. “So far, everyone is doing well post-op with good aftercare and steady progress,” he shared.
🔹 Dr. Nish Patel highlighted 78 transcatheter procedures completed between Black Lion Hospital and the Cardiac Center Ethiopia. Four TAVR patients are already stable enough to go home today.
🔹 Mesfin Dollar (Mayo Clinic Perfusionist) added that three bypass surgeries were completed this week, with all patients expected to leave the ICU by this afternoon.
While the work has been physically and mentally demanding, the team continues to ride the emotional high of seeing patients recover and thrive.
Dr. Telila reminded us that missions go beyond surgery — they involve complex coordination of supplies, adapting to resource limitations, and working outside the comfort of home institutions. Logistics like warehouse access and limited instrument sets have been challenging, but local nurses and technicians have been working tirelessly alongside us to keep the mission moving.
🙏🏽 A huge thank you to the incredible staff at Black Lion Hospital, whose dedication and teamwork have made this progress possible.
With just a few days left, the mission continues — healing one heart at a time. 💙
#HeartAttackEthiopia #MissionTrip4 #Day12 #GlobalHealth #BlackLionHospital #CardiacSurgery #TranscatheterTherapies #HealingOneHeartAtATime #MedicalMissions #Teamwork #SurgicalCare #TAVR #BypassSurgery
These are the likely outcomes I predicted would result from the sudden and disorderly implementation of the reform. As anticipated, the IMF appears to be distancing itself now that the economic downward spiral is becoming more evident and will likely shift the blame onto the government. And I agree both are guilty!
Here’s what I wrote a year ago
https://t.co/K9GOFTGuMM
This sudden and disorderly macroeconomic reform: the good, the bad, and the worst part of the reform.
After carefully reading the press release (https://t.co/UNIQcrxn6O)
and the National Bank of Ethiopia's new directive on the same (https://t.co/9xwsTMXCtS) here is my immediate reaction.
The good part
1) Most of the previous NBE restrictions on banks, businesses, and individuals regarding foreign currency account opening, retaining foreign currency, and making international transactions are relaxed. The current restrictive policies have been disincentives to hold foreign currency in the country, forcing most people or businesses to find alternative accounts in foreign countries and expanding parallel markets inside and outside the banks.
2) In the long run, the market-based exchange rate system is not inherently bad, but the timing of its application is the worst. The prerequisites for moving to a market-based exchange rate are many, and it would have had better outcomes if it were introduced after implementing other prerequisite measures.
The bad and the worst part
1) Now that all parts of the "macroeconomic reform" are implemented suddenly and all at once, this creates shocks across the economy.
2) The timing is bad because this announcement came as the country's foreign reserve is almost depleted (some say it is enough for less than a month’s import demand). There is no way the market can satisfy the demand for foreign currencies at market rates unless the IMF and WB deposit the said $10B commitment all at once now.
3) This drastic change comes at a time of high inflation and high demand for forex for both consumption and speculation. This will now create huge consumption and speculative demand for foreign currency, and the birr will depreciate significantly (it may even go into free fall). This will create hyperinflation, effectively stealing the purchasing power of the majority. The proposed subsidies cannot withstand the loss of purchasing power.
4) The timing is also the worst because the current state of conflicts and reduced investment will not give confidence to attract or increase the supply of FDI and remittance as anticipated in the reform. This will keep the demand for foreign currencies high compared to the supply, leading to significant depreciation of the birr and higher inflation.
The IMF/ WB pressured the govt to make these reforms in exchange for FA & loans. They win, the country loses (the majority of low-income families will suffer). When the reform fail to deliver, the IMF will blame the gov't. https://t.co/RLyzoctDei
It would have been better to sequence the reform in an orderly manner with measures such as:
1) As I outlined before, make the reform stepwise. https://t.co/crYcAaA6rM
2) The parallel market is not only run by non-bank actors but also by people within the banks. This reform takes away their incentives, so the timing of wholesale change is bad as it creates a pseudo market signals. Sequenced measures would have created less impact, but now this will crash the birr https://t.co/dikeZEaCj3
https://t.co/OoUkmVWrtm
3) Transparent economic reform would have prepared the general public and businesses to avoid speculation. The secret negotiations with the IMF/ WB have been ongoing for a few years now, always driving the economy to the edge. Lack of transparency will cost the country a lot in terms of instability & economic shocks and stresses. Over a year ago the State Minister denied the rumers of devaluation but here we are. https://t.co/s9gE3V0JsM
4) Before such drastic measures, the people in charge of the economy (in the ministries, agencies and NBE) should have be filled with competent individuals who have more experience and sophistication rather than politicians who have no clue about the ripple effects of this reform.
A lot can be said, but this is a done deal. Let's hope for the best outcome. From my vantage point, these are the scenarios I foresee. May God help us.
African countries don't appear in top 30 world's biggest exporters liat; not even close. The combined total export value of the 54 African countries is around $640B that's almost equivalent to the value of South Korea's annual export. See how far behind Africa is?
Africa’s export profile remains commodity-heavy, lacking the manufacturing and value-added industries. There is huge potential in the continent, however a collective vision for change is not there whatsoever.
I don't think setting a minimum wage alone will resolve the issue, especially given the rapid debasement of the birr. With birr's purchasing power eroding continuously, a wage set today could become insufficient in just a few months or a year. So, setting a minimum wage gives little real protection for these workers.
As a temporary measure, one possible solution could be to establish a baseline wage in birr and peg to the dollar. This at least could preserve the purchasing power and help workers to cope with the inflation.
More broadly, however, this is not merely a minimum wage setting issue, it is a deeper macroeconomic challenges that require well thought out structural reforms, not just an IMF/WB driven pseudo reform.
🎉 Heartfelt Gratitude to Terumo 🎉
We are beyond grateful to @terumoisuk Cardiovascular for their generous support, providing radial sheaths and Ultimaster stents, which enabled us to perform PCI for ACS and primary PCI for patients in critical need.
Thanks to their contribution, we were able to save multiple lives, offering timely and life-changing interventions.
The people of Ethiopia and the volunteers are grateful for your kind donation.
#HeartHealth #MedicalMission #PCI #SavingLives #Terumo #Gratitude #HeartAttackEthiopia @TTelila@drmerid
“It is bad enough that so many people believe things without any evidence. What is worse is that some people have no conception of evidence and regard facts as just someone else's opinion.”
— Thomas Sowell
We have wrapped up an incredible two weeks in Ethiopia where Mission Trip #3 resulted in 83 life-saving procedures and operations! ❤️ ✈️
Dr. Tesfaye Telila gives us a final briefing from a temporary storage room overflowing with donated medical supplies from our U.S. partners. 🏥 Catheters, wires, balloons, and stents – all flown in with our amazing team – are ready to be distributed to our three partner hospitals. 💪 This means local cardiovascular specialists can continue to perform life-saving procedures even after we've returned home.
A huge THANK YOU to Ethiopia for your incredible hospitality, guidance, and invaluable partnerships. 🙏We're already looking forward to our 4th mission trip in July! #HAE #Ethiopia #CardiovascularCare #GlobalHealth @FMoHealth@flyethiopian@TTelila@mmamas1973