Mani

Founder | Investor | Engineer | Blogger | Reader | Runner | NSE Academy-certified in Financial Modelling and Valuation & Advance Equity Research

[Mani @getmoneyrich]

@farman4x 5x4x5=100

[Mani @getmoneyrich]

@farman4x 100

[Mani @getmoneyrich]

So, current LT shareholders can say Cheers to this news.

But should new investors get excited/woried about this venture of VB? I don’t think so.

[Mani @getmoneyrich]

I think Varun Beverages' (VB) entry into alcobev (Kiva Spirits) is a low-risk, high-optionality bet.

If the Kiva venture fails, the impact is negligible because of the tiny capital commitment against VBL's massive balance sheet.

...read more

[Mani @getmoneyrich]

If it succeeds, it could become a meaningful second growth engine over 10-15 years. It will be backed by VBL's huge distribution network.

For long-term shareholders, I think there is a minimal downside risk, but a real long-term upside.

[Mani @getmoneyrich]

this data set gives us a reason to watch these two pockets more carefully. In most cases, I’ll hold on to these stocks further but will become more vigilant towards their specific news flows.

[Mani @getmoneyrich]

Core Sector growth slowed to 5.4% in July from 6% in June. Should you worry? Not really. Let me explain you why?

Iron ore (+29.5%), cement (+13%), electricity (+9%) and coal (+7.6%) are still going strong.

...read more

[Mani @getmoneyrich]

- Falling output usually means falling revenue growth ahead, so track their upcoming quarterly numbers closely before adding more.

But this is also true that one data point isn't a reason to exit. If you hold a fundamentally strong stock (from the every or fertilizer sectors),

[Mani @getmoneyrich]

Government policy can reverse sentiment overnight.

What we can do it, we can watch government stock/export-import orders closely; they move these stocks more than fundamentals right now.

[Mani @getmoneyrich]

Sugar Stocks: What's Really Happening?

Prices are rising because sugarcane sucrose available (~31M tonnes) got completely squeezed.

About ~3M tonnes was diverted to ethanol.

This leafet the net output at just ~28M tonnes vs early estimates of ~35M.

...read more

[Mani @getmoneyrich]

...to cool prices before Diwali.

What is the result?

Same sugar stocks that rallied 10-18% on shortage hopes fell up to 6% on the news. Cheaper imports mean lower sugar mill margins.

For investors I’ll say, We cannot buy/sell sugar stocks based on scarcity headlines alone.

[Mani @getmoneyrich]

...less favourable.

Stocks which gets effected the most will be Banks, NBFCs, real estate, and auto sector stocks.

[Mani @getmoneyrich]

...it pushes up interest rates on home loans, car loans, and business loans everywhere.

Oil prices and Middle East tension are adding fuel too.

In simple words, the world is entering a costlier borrowing era, and everyone will feel the pinch.

When global bond yields rise,...

[Mani @getmoneyrich]

...especially US yields, it usually hurts Indian equities.

FII will move out of India and invest in US bonds.

When USD starts to move away from India, the after effects are weak INR, and RBI also finds it hard to lower the interest rates which makes equity valuation...

[Mani @getmoneyrich]

Who are these investors? Big institutional players like pension funds, insurance companies, mutual funds, banks, foreign central banks, and some hedge funds, etc.

This is not good news.

When government borrowing becomes expensive,...

[Mani @getmoneyrich]

Now investors are worried. They see too much government debt piling up, and they fear inflation will stay high.

So before lending money to these governments, investors are demanding higher interest in return.