AAA

早日财富自由

[跟着Serenity学投资 @chuge857]

Serenity 今天一口气扔出了8条近期最值得关注的产业信息，每一条单独拿出来都能写一篇。

我挑最直接影响A股的三条说：

第一条：中国人形机器人出货量预测，今年已经上调了两次。
摩根士丹利把2026年中国人形机器人出货量预测，从年初的1.4万台，调到2.8万台，现在再次上调到5万台。
三个月内翻了3.5倍。这不是分析师在拍脑袋——背后是宇树、智元、傅利叶这些厂商的实际订单在支撑。A股的绿的谐波（688017）、三花智控（002050）是这条链上最直接的受益方，而且目前估值里机器人业务几乎没有被定价。

第二条：MLCC正在签LTA（长期采购协议）。
三星已经和美国某大型科技客户签署了MLCC的长期采购协议，其他厂商也在跟进。
上一次我们看到LTA大规模出现，是在光模块赛道——然后光模块股票涨了好几倍。LTA意味着需求方在用真金白银锁定未来产能，这是比任何研报都更硬的信号。A股的风华高科（000636）是国内MLCC龙头，这条消息对它是直接利好。

第三条：台湾OSAT（封装测试）在涨价，而且内存封测产能已经成为瓶颈。
Digitimes报道，台湾封测厂商正在集体提价，内存封测和IC封测产能双双告急。

这个逻辑和光模块一样：AI需求爆炸 → 上游某个环节产能跟不上 → 涨价 → 利润率提升 → 股价重估。A股里通富微电（002156）和长电科技（600584）是国内封测龙头，受益于台湾产能瓶颈带来的订单溢出。

这条推文里还有两条值得单独记住的信息：

OpenAI实现了推理成本减半的技术突破，GPU需求可能因此降低——这对英伟达短期是个小负面，但对整个AI生态是正面（更便宜的推理 = 更大的用量）。

Brookfield为$BE（Bloom Energy，燃料电池）提供了250亿美元融资，因为电网瓶颈触发了5倍的资金需求——这条指向的是AI数据中心的电力供应问题，国内对应的是电力设备和储能赛道。

[AAA @getrich0417]

I hope you realise one thing: water can support a boat, but it can also capsize it. If you keep suppressing the share price like this, investors will panic and sell off their shares, causing your shares to plummet and your company to go completely bankrupt. If your shares plummet, I’ll simply lose my capital, and I’m confident I can bounce back, but if you go bankrupt, you’ll be saddled with huge debts! You should be well aware of this, so stop doing such foolish things! Save your share price.

[AAA @getrich0417]

I hope you realise one thing: water can support a boat, but it can also capsize it. If you keep suppressing the share price like this, investors will panic and sell off their shares, causing your shares to plummet and your company to go completely bankrupt. If your shares plummet, I’ll simply lose my capital, and I’m confident I can bounce back, but if you go bankrupt, you’ll be saddled with huge debts! You should be well aware of this, so stop doing such foolish things! Save your share price.

[AAA @getrich0417]

I hope you realise one thing: water can support a boat, but it can also capsize it. If you keep suppressing the share price like this, investors will panic and sell off their shares, causing your shares to plummet and your company to go completely bankrupt. If your shares plummet, I’ll simply lose my capital, and I’m confident I can bounce back, but if you go bankrupt, you’ll be saddled with huge debts! You should be well aware of this, so stop doing such foolish things! Save your stock price.

[AAA @getrich0417]

@Balloon_Capital 真的被这个人坑死了，说iren好先不卖，61没卖现在43了

[AAA @getrich0417]

I want you to be clear about one thing: everyone out there is currently criticising us, the investors in iRen. Investors who bought shares in any other data centre would not have faced a 30% drawdown in June. Our short positions are currently at an all-time high, and I want you to recognise this. Without the trust of investors, a company is worth https://t.co/wDC2OsMqjA ONE DEAL

[AAA @getrich0417]

@danroberts0101 We need an deal, sir. Please let us know if there’s an order; please give us some good news.

[AAA @getrich0417]

Sir. Do something—APLD is about to catch up with your share price… How many days has your share price been falling now? It’s been hitting new lows ever since it started at 61 last week… Could you please give us investors some confidence and stop selling at market price? Many of us are already at our wits’ end.

[Art of Speculation @ArtofSpecuycky]

今日美股总结：今天反弹不简单 --- 养老金最后两天的抛售、华尔街的洗盘、PCE统计改了、韩国砸5180亿搞半导体

华尔街是怎么洗盘的
开盘前45分钟，机构大幅打压半导体板块制造恐慌，诱导散户抛售割肉转投医疗保健和七巨头。散户离场之后，机构在低位迅速接盘大举涌入，许多半导体股票随后走出死里逃生式的V型反转，甚至演变成暴涨。半导体收了上下影线的股票都算是final capitulation因为大部分散户投降了。
美光和闪迪回踩EMA20后精准反弹，重演了历史上的经典走势，财报公布后的走势属于典型的跌破前低、迅速拉回、回测确认、向上突破的教科书级洗盘。
ARM盘中一度跌到300美元附近的EMA50实施剧烈洗盘，最终大幅收涨43美元。
今天最抗跌、走势最好的两个板块分别是半导体设备和网络安全。网络安全这条线值得单独说一下，AI的发展不会消除安全问题，反而会制造更多隐患。 AMAT和CRWD可以关注。

地缘政治这边又有进展，是今天反弹的主要催化剂之一，虽然这部分影响已经非常小了
美国和伊朗同意停止互相攻击，特朗普说伊朗已请求在多哈会面，卡塔尔即将解冻伊朗60亿美元的资产。
原油这边，目前油价已经较近期高点回落了40.95%。如果地缘和谈顺利，油价可能进一步承压。我自己的判断是原油今年中期选举年不用太担心了，120是今年的顶，通胀也会跟着下来。
7月4日美国250周年国庆前夕，除非出现极端搅局者，地缘政治大概率会迎来几天的太平日子，短期避险情绪会回落。

今天大盘集体跳空高开超过1%，这个信号的历史统计也值得放进来
历史数据表明，大盘当天集体向上跳空超过1%是极度看涨的信号：跳空2天后上涨概率75%，2周后86%，3周和1个月后上涨概率甚至达到100%，1个月后的平均回报率可达6.7%。
这个数据跟之前一直在讲的季节性规律是吻合的。明天是6月最后一天，历史数据表明7月通常是美股表现最强劲的月份之一，尤其是过去20年的统计里表现最好。

本周关键日程，周四非农是重点，但我不是很担心
周二关注JOLTs职位空缺数据。周三美联储官员发表讲话。周四非农就业报告和失业率数据，是本周最重要的经济事件。周五7月3日因独立日假期休市。
我不担心周四这个数据，白宫首席经济顾问凯文·哈萨特在非农发布前公开发言，说目前看到的指标表明就业报告会是一个强劲但温和的数字，不存在过热失控的态势。6月新增非农大幅超预期的可能性不大，5月超预期主要是因为世界杯的短暂影响导致企业提前招工，这是个一次性因素，不是趋势。

特斯拉今天暴涨8.5%，技术面值得说一下
长期处于下降通道里，短期要关注413到415这个阻力区间，一旦放量突破，有望直接上攻通道上轨420甚至433下跌趋势线第四次碰到的这个位置这个目标位。2026年可能引入北美的Model Y长轴版的传闻也带来了一些情绪催化。

技术面分析
明天SPY的每日隐含动能范围大约是上轨746，下轨735，如果大盘回落，此前的阻力位会转换为支撑，可能在735附近砸出更高的低点，这也是下跌趋势线的突破回踩，形成非常理想的右侧多头回测买点。
市场正在从高波动的环境逐步过渡到牛市低波动环境。标普已经重新夺回并站上了Gamma翻转线之上，处于正Gamma状态。
VIX今天下跌4.13%回落到17.65。从VIX图表能清楚看出，价格重回翻转线上方时，VIX受到剧烈压制，意味着市场重回买入回踩、抛售冲高的趋势平稳期。10年期美债小幅回落0.05%，美元指数横盘震荡。
这些都给美股创造了很好的上涨环境。

PCE通胀统计口径被修改了
电脑软件和配件这一项加入了游戏软件的复合指数，因为游戏类产品价格长期在往下走，这一项单独就能把5月核心PCE拉低0.1到0.2个百分点。
投资组合管理服务这块改用就业薪资增速来算，不再用资产价格做基准，因为行业薪资增长比较温和，这一项的通胀从21.6%直接砍到9%，单项就能让核心PCE下修0.21个百分点。
法律服务这块停用了一个长期没更新的单一口径，换成了更细分的复合指数，同比涨幅从7.6%降到4.25%。
这几项加起来，5月核心PCE同比直接被下修0.2个百分点到3.2%，2026年12月的核心PCE全年预期也从3.2%调到了3.0%。瑞银提醒说这种改法会让数据的透明度变差，存在被操纵的嫌疑，但市场现在只关心结果是利好：加息的必要性进一步弱化，降息的预期反而升温了。

业绩基本面这边，高盛上调了AI企业的盈利预期，这是支撑反弹的核心理由
高盛最新的策略报告说，标普二季度整体盈利有望大涨22%。背后两个推动力：一是AI资本开支继续爆，光英伟达和微软两家公司对整体盈利增长的贡献就超过40%；二是AI的需求正在从单纯的算力端往终端消费、企业软件这些更大的场景里扩散。

韩国砸5180亿美元搞半导体国家战略，市场的反应挺反常的，要讲清楚为什么
韩国总统宣布五年内要把本国存储芯片产能翻一倍，这种规模的扩产消息按常理应该会让市场担心未来供给过剩，结果市场反而涨了。背后有几层逻辑：
第一，时间上变量太大。真正的产能落地是好几年甚至十年后的事，这只是个政策方向，根本改变不了未来一两年全球HBM和通用存储紧缺的实际局面。
第二，增量需求把扩产的担忧给抵消了。韩国不只是在扩存储产能，还在往本地AI算力集群和数据中心砸巨额资金，这些基础设施建起来之后会产生大量的存储硬件采购需求，正好把存储厂自己扩产带来的供给风险给平衡掉了。
第三，真正赚得最稳的是上游设备商。韩国这次的投资，对中短期的存储供需格局影响是中性的，但晶圆厂和封装厂要建起来，必须海量采购设备，这对AMAT、Lam Research、ASML这些上游设备公司是确定性极高的长期增量利好，跟之前讲半导体设备股那篇的逻辑是同一条线。

总结一下我对今天的判断
今天的反弹不是单一原因撑起来的，是机构洗盘、地缘缓和、非农预期被提前管理、PCE统计口径被系统性下修、AI盈利预期上调、韩国扩产带动设备股增量利好，这几件事凑在一起同时发生。
跳空超过1%之后的历史胜率很高，季末的Gamma结构也回到了正值区间，市场正在从偏脆弱的状态慢慢过渡到相对稳定的偏多环境。后天即便非农数据本身不弱，市场的预期也已经被提前安抚过了，应该不太容易引发真正的恐慌。
操作上继续按计划分批接，半导体设备和网络安全今天走得最稳，值得多关注关注。存储这条线的洗盘基本已经走完了，回踩均线精准反弹说明这波抛压已经被消化得差不多了。

[AAA @getrich0417]

@danroberts0101 ……😂😂😂😂

[AAA @getrich0417]

@danroberts0101 @warriors u wanna says anything？For the past half month, I've been crying every day, sleeping no more than five hours, tormented and distressed over my future and my money

[AAA @getrich0417]

I didn’t sleep a wink last night. Ever since I bought this, it’s been nothing but mental and physical torment; I’ve been crying and breaking down every single day. I’m too scared to be home on my own now, for fear of hurting myself again. I’ve never come across such a rubbish share—rubbish, rubbish, rubbish!

[AAA @getrich0417]

@danroberts0101 @warriors Sir, I’m begging you—use the short-sellers as fuel. All it takes is one piece of good news to burn them out and let us hit a new high. Wouldn’t it be great if you could then cash out?

[美研芒格君 @Kay2289123]

https://t.co/3TWZzaX5p4

[AAA @getrich0417]

Management needs to understand the damage being done here. Selling shares through the ATM at weak prices creates serious dilution and destroys shareholder confidence. The lower the stock price, the more shares must be issued, and existing shareholders are the ones forced to absorb the damage. This is unacceptable.

IREN cannot keep asking shareholders to fund growth while allowing the market to fear constant dilution. If the AI data center strategy is real, prove it through major contracts, revenue, execution, and disciplined financing. Stop putting pressure on the stock through dilution concerns. Protect your shareholders, restore confidence, and get the stock price higher before relying on the ATM.

[川沐｜Trumoo🐮 @xiaomustock]

这是年初写的对去年的交易体会总结，
能未来替代目前全AI行业抽水机存储地位的，可能就是康宁的这个集成了光纤光通信的玻璃基板。
不过没有发生百亿美金规模级的利润前人们还很难确定，我也是。
只是从黄仁勋让康宁扩产10倍，那么肯定对应着未来英伟达十倍以上的需求。
说明在投产放量后会发生10倍以上的需求暴增，这跟存储发生的事情有点点像。

如果未来某一天发生AI的某细分行业数倍增速百亿美金级别的规模利润，如果还拥有极高护城河极少竞争对手，那值得瞬间梭哈 。
现在阶段只能猜，但最终会百分之一万有这么一天，至于哪个细分则不可知。

[Jim Liu @jiahanjimliu]

6/27 Portfolio Update

93.85% $IREN
I acknowledge the disappointment for the cost of the Golden State Sponsorship and the real disappointment of GPU deliveries and ramp. The disappointment can be attributed to three sources:
1. Prince George revenue miss for Q1 earnings. @_Sgr_A_Star went through the account receivables and most of the GPUs are billing for Q2 (1). PG is a retrofit but UPS weren't previously needed for BTC mining and British Columbia has slow permitting process so a majority of the PG GPUs became billing at the very end of Q1. I expect 90-110m AI revenue from PG for Q2 earnings around August ~6.
2. Horizon 1-4 deliveries for Microsoft. From satellite pictures, @FransBakker9812 subgroup expects late July / early August delivery. With the H1 issues flushed out and delivered, H2-4 should be much faster and on track for end of this year, worse case Jan 2027.
3. Comparisons to $NBIS. $NBIS stock price has rocketed as they delivered 399m revenue from self-owned Finland and other colocation sites. However, Vineland just swapped out power sourced from unauthorized Bergen Engines to $BE Fuel Cells (2) and it's clear they will be using other locations to meet obligations for their $MSFT contract. When IREN announces H1 delivery in late July/August, $IREN will be ahead in delivering SOTA training GB300 clusters for Microsoft as $NBIS Vineland sorts out it's power workaround.

I acknowledge that in order to meet Nvidia roadmap, $IREN has made a recent pivot to software on approximately half their capacity. Although IREN is behind in software, software is zero margin cost for distribution and not the bottleneck for AI. For the most part, it's been physical constraints like memory fab and power like $BE that has been handsomely rewarded, not SaaS. $IREN has been fine selling to leading AI platforms like FireworksAI, TogetherAI, Hume AI and Baseten via Fluidstack but needs to have higher priority GPU deliveries and system bring up. Once H1 de-risk's $IREN's bringup speed, we will see revenue really start to ramp. For software, they are bringing Mirantis for Orchestration for Bare Metal+.

$IREN remains my #1 position for the following reason. In 2 years, we saw $MU's net margin go from 4.9% to 68.1% and gross margins hit 84.6% as HBM became the bottleneck. Goldman Sach reports for datacenter capacity: "Year-over-year capacity additions are scheduled to reach 13.6 GW in 2026 and 36.3 GW in 2027" (3). 36.3GW is from 66GW of planned buildouts (3) as the remaining datacenter buildouts will be delayed or cancelled. At 36.3 GW DC capacity, HBM is the bottleneck, but if we have more misses and only 30GW DC capacity is added in 2027, the bottleneck shifts from HBM to power.

Only AWS and GCP in-house buildouts are in the clear to have most their planned capacity. Overall, 13.6 GW added in 2026 to 36.3GW and put massive strain on the BTM supply chain. Hypertec 5C, a very large private Neocloud, is already reaching pass $BE Fuel Cells for $FCEL to meet timelines (5). $CRWV has had missed in the pass and is likely to miss more in an tighter environment. $NBIS has announced GWs left and right but ironically, is still sorting out power for their Vineland site which had power secured in March 2025! BTM is hard to do as evidence by delays from $ORCL, Crusoe getting cancelled on by Google for mising checkpoints (4), Hypertec 5C reaching out to the frontier with $FCEL which is not unverified commercialized at scale (5). Many GWs of "secured power" look just as secured as Vineland but not all can be saved last minute by $BE fuel cells.

2.40% Cash

2.03% $OUST
$OUST is trading at a premium but you also get a premium team in robotics. Writeup: https://t.co/L3nVt5aGit

1.72% $TSLA
I've usually don't all in my portfoilo and my only other all in was previous $TSLA. These are my leftovers. Writeup: https://t.co/3pCqD3QvE9

[AAA @getrich0417]

Why are you using money from the ATM for other purposes again? With the stock market in such a dire state, haven’t you ever stopped to think about why? All you need to do is announce some good news! Then nobody would feel this desperate! With all the hype about power shortages out there at the moment, couldn’t you at least post a statement to address it?

[Balder @Balder13946731]

OpenAI居然将自己最前沿的模型在 $CBRS 芯片上发行，推理速度达到了惊人的750 tokens/s

这就是为什么 $CBRS 在周五的时候逆着所有芯片股大涨的原因吗😳

[seaify @seaify1]

牛逼到极点了，大致看完了，但是还没完全看懂，明天再继续尝试深入理解下，得结合下ai