HH

[HH @ghymhong]

How to catch GPA 4.0

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: The S&P 500 rises on reports that talks between the US and Iran have entered a "technical stage," per Al Jazeera.

Details include:

1. Negotiations in New York have reportedly moved beyond initial diplomatic contacts into a "more detailed technical phase"

2. Technical experts joined the discussions in New York after a first meeting involving US envoys Witkoff and Kushner

3. Iran's proposed 7-day plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz if the US ends its blockade is being discussed as an accelerated version of a previously discussed 60-day process

4. Both sides also continue to discuss other arrangements for the Strait of Hormuz

Oil prices are pulling back on the news.

[The Iranian Letter @TheIranianzg3z]

BREAKING: Iran has reportedly put forward a seven-day framework for reopening the Strait of Hormuz as part of a potential path toward ending hostilities, according to The New York Times.

Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tehran had delivered a proposal to Washington through intermediaries. Under the plan, Iran would reopen the Strait at the end of the seventh day if certain conditions are met, with negotiations then resuming.

A U.S. official described the talks as constructive but said Washington is not prepared to rush into an agreement.

[First Squawk @FirstSquawk]

US AND IRAN DISCUSS PHASED DEAL TO REOPEN HORMUZ AND END US BLOCKADE

[Josh Young @JoshYoung]

This is a funny way of looking at oil prices:

[Shay Boloor @StockSavvyShay]

Citi sees AI driving enterprise SSD demand up 53% in 2027 and another 41% in 2028 as KV-cache offloading pushes more high-capacity storage next to GPUs.

NAND demand is also expected to outgrow supply by ~25% which should keep pricing strong for $MU, $SKHY and $SNDK.

[Shay Boloor @StockSavvyShay]

$INTC CEO Lip Bu Tan says memory prices are up 5x to 7x and the shortage could get even worse in 2027 with memory now ~75% of the cost of some lower end phones and laptops.

That lines up with $SKHY which says 2027 could be the industry’s worst supply year.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

The Fed made a very clear statement today.

Not only did they hike interest rates, but it was a 12-0 unanimous decision.

This marks the first unanimous Fed decision since May 2025, amid calls from President Trump to cut rates.

And, the Fed concluded their policy statement by saying, "The Committee will deliver price stability," making it clear that inflation is their top priority.

The question now becomes: How does President Trump respond?

12 days ago, President Trump said he would "stop trading" with 50+ US trade partners if the Fed does not cut rates.

Today, the Fed not only avoided cutting rates, they hiked them.

Clearly, the divide between the White House and the Fed is widening, even with Jerome Powell out.

More to come.

[The Hormuz Letter @HormuzLetter]

BREAKING: Yemen's Houthis have laid naval mines in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, per a Yemeni military source to DPA.

This comes days after they took over Yemen's entire Red Sea coast and Perim Island. Both chokepoints between Gulf oil and Asia are now mined.

[The Hormuz Letter @HormuzLetter]

BREAKING: The Royal Saudi Air Force has bombed its own allies in Yemen, the Saudi-backed Giants Brigades, on the Bab el-Mandeb coast south of Mocha overnight, with dozens of casualties, per initial reports inside Yemen.

As Mocha fell Thursday, Yemeni commanders said the Saudi air cover they were promised never arrived. When the strikes came, they struck their own Saudi-backed forces. Yemen's entire Red Sea coast is now Houthi-controlled.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: Microsoft, $MSFT, announces "limits" for future AI models through a new code of conduct after recent discussion around AI safety.

Details include:

1. Under the new code of conduct, Microsoft's models are subject to certain limitations

2. Their models must not entertain requests on weapons manufacturing, assist with the procurement of dangerous substances, encourage unhealthy eating, or produce violent or sexually explicit content

3. Models from Microsoft AI must adhere to people’s objectives and "steer clear of creating their own goals"

4. Microsoft is also planning rules to prevent a cyberattack similar to the one carried out on startup Hugging Face

The AI safety discussion is shifting the industry.

[Watcher.Guru @WatcherGuru]

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 President Trump rejects calls to slow down AI development.

[Bull Theory @BullTheoryio]

BREAKING: 🇯🇵 Japan PPI came in at 7.6%.

Expectations: 7.4%

Highest level since February 2023.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: President Trump says the US is not looking for a deal with Iran and oil prices will not fall until "right after" midterm elections.

"Oil prices are going to be tumbling downward," Trump said.

Brent crude oil prices extend gains above $101/barrel on the news.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: President Trump says he will issue a $5,000 "dividend" to every adult citizen in the US if the Republicans win the midterm elections.

There are currently ~245 million US citizens age 18+, meaning this dividend would cost ~$1.2 trillion.

This would mark the biggest economic stimulus payment since the pandemic.

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

TREASURY TRIPLES BOND BUYBACK, MARKETS WANT MORE

The U.S. Treasury tripled its next long-term debt buyback to $6 billion, as Secretary Scott Bessent seeks to contain rising borrowing costs.

Despite the increase, Treasuries fell, pushing the 10-year yield to 4.83%, its highest since 2023, as investors had expected stronger intervention.

Bessent says the expanded buybacks aim to improve market liquidity and limit disruptive yield moves, rather than change fundamental Treasury valuations.

[Cheddar Flow @CheddarFlow]

MILLIONS worth of $MU 0DTE calls detected (Unusual)

[The Hormuz Letter @HormuzLetter]

BREAKING: Iran's IRGC announces it struck the US destroyers USS Delbert D. Black (DDG-119) and USS John Paul Jones (DDG-53) with ballistic missiles in response to tonight's US strikes on Iranian oil tankers, saying both Aegis warships were carrying cruise missiles and that the attack "caused significant damage to these vessels."

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

IRGC CLAIMS CAPTURE OF U.S. UNMANNED SUBMARINE

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Navy claims it captured a U.S. unmanned submarine near the entrance to the Strait of Hormuz.

The IRGC said the operation relied on intelligence and operational planning, describing the vessel as an advanced autonomous submarine that entered U.S. service in 2025.

Iran said the submarine remains in its possession and that images will be released later.

The claim has not been independently verified.

[The Iranian Letter @TheIranianzg3z]

BREAKING: The U.S. Navy has reportedly been fighting a secret underwater war in the Strait of Hormuz, spending four months quietly hunting for Iranian mines while American and Iranian forces exchanged strikes, according to the Financial Times.

Navy SEAL divers, unmanned boats and underwater robotic systems reportedly operated mainly at night, using sonar-equipped vessels to locate mines before divers and robotic submersibles destroyed them.

The IMO estimated around 80 mines had been placed in key shipping lanes. Shipowners believe the southern section near Oman has likely been cleared, but remain uncertain whether the entire strait is safe.

The mine threat has devastated commercial traffic and pushed war-risk insurance to roughly 10 times prewar levels, reaching around $10 million for a typical supertanker.

[The Hormuz Letter @HormuzLetter]

BREAKING: A source close to Iran's Ghalibaf says "Iran is on the verge of imposing a maritime blockade against US-allied countries in the Strait of Hormuz."

The source adds that the establishment of a new prohibited area in the Strait serves as the prelude to this strategy.