Gideon

political economy / labour party stuff / views my own!

[Gideon @gideoncoolin]

Unbelievable

[julia @eathedocument]

new tangled up in blue verses in 2026. oh my god. oh my god.

[julia @eathedocument]

new tangled up in blue verses in 2026. oh my god. oh my god.

[Liam Gallagher @liamgallagher]

There’s only 1 ANDY BURNHAM

[Ben Judah @b_judah]

There is literally no UK debate or serious coverage about this Chinese megatrend right now and it tells a tale of political will ignorance and media parochialism.

[Gideon @gideoncoolin]

Free Daron Acemoglu School Walkout

[Daron Acemoglu @DAcemogluMIT]

I am not happy about the Economist’s article, which feels like a hit piece. There is also a background to it, which is more troubling (as I will share at some point). I asked them to allow me to respond. I am waiting for their answer. If not in the magazine, I will share my response here.

[Gideon @gideoncoolin]

This is so obviously wrong. Production of TVs is almost uniquely state-led.

High def TV R&D was conducted by U.S. govt-run DARPA in the 80s/90s.

50% of TVs are currently produced in China, largely by SOEs and supported by subsidy/macro policy.

[Kemi Badenoch @KemiBadenoch]

Why are TVs getting cheaper, but energy is getting more expensive? Here's a hint: the government might just have something to do with it.

[Gideon @gideoncoolin]

This is right & the discourse of China squeeze has been strangely defensive. It’s not a moralistic point, it’s what’s happening in a world where China has huge economies of scale + automation in the sector that has been the only path to development in history.

[New Left EViews @NewLeftEViews]

I don't quite understand some of the pushback to the China squeeze argument. That's not to say that none of it is legitimate, but this point about the 'lump of consumption' fallacy is neither here nor there.

On the counterfactual story: the assumption that other EMs would have been more competitive had their institutions, policies, domestic conditions been more similar to China's seems perfectly consistent with the notion that they couldn't have gained a larger share of demand in lower-value sectors had China's own policies been less assertive. They had initially displaced existing industrial activity through lower unit costs, so had these not been so low in relative terms others could have gained a greater foothold.

But more importantly: if we are, as we should, talking not about counterfactuals but about future developmental paths for developing countries, then it's very plausible that much of the benefits of expanded consumption will still accrue to the country with the absolute advantage across much of the value chain.

"Can anyone with a straight face suggest that the main problems afflicting the development of South Africa or Nigeria, the great centers of mass underemployment in sub-saharan Africa, are cheap competition from China driven by Beijing’s industrial policy and an undervalued RMB?"

This is really beside the point and I suspect it's deliberately polemical. There is much reason to believe that if you're an EM and you get house in order you would not be able to compete simply because China's levelised cost advantages might well persist in most sectors whatever you do (unless you are like Vietnam a well-organised bordering country with an ideologically aligned political system).

This still begs the question what happens to these countries' developmental prospects when almost all of the world's merchandise trade ends up concentrated in one part of the world and when, historically, export-led growth is the way countries get out of poverty.

https://t.co/J2e3kxPXp0

https://t.co/7Ipc1JuTYg

[Gideon @gideoncoolin]

Nothing else happening here, obviously

[GB Politics @GBPolitcs]

🚨NEW: The UK's 10Y Bond Yield has steadily increased to 5.1% since Andy Burnham was made Prime Minister

[John Cochrane @JohnHCochrane]

Far more poverty has been alleviated by growth than by any RCT type aid or poverty alleviation program. Like orders of magnitude. Compare China to sub-Saharan Africa.

[Gideon @gideoncoolin]

Biden’s massive fiscal stimulus!

[Dan Neidle @DanNeidle]

What is the reason for the marked divergence post-pandemic?

[Gideon @gideoncoolin]

govt spending in GDP was only 5% in the 1730s and EVERYTHING was FINE

[Auguste Prompt @augusteprompt]

I cannot believe people still think we did austerity.

[Branko Milanovic @BrankoMilan]

My today's Substack.
To work or not to work
Can nations not work hard and continue to prosper?
https://t.co/OAIIoYz4Ve

[José Miguel Ahumada @jmahumadaf]

The WTO Bookshop today: how times have changed!

[Gideon @gideoncoolin]

Economists in control

[Alex Tabarrok @ATabarrok]

Hernando de Soto appointed Prime Minister of Peru.

We are on the other path.

https://t.co/pTOlTwO0a6

[Gideon @gideoncoolin]

help I’m stuck in Alderney

[Adam Tooze @adam_tooze]

Couscous and curried veggies for the win. Note multiply-reused takeout containers offering a radical synthesis of mixed provisioning modes with low-cost synergistic spinoffs.

[Adam Tooze @adam_tooze]

HILARIOUS ... and so true.

[Adam Tooze @adam_tooze]

A real coup. All the way back to his role under Gordon Brown in 2008 @Ed_Miliband deserves huge credit for driving one of the most effective renewable energy programs in the world, centered on offshore wind.

[Morten N. Støstad @MortenStostad]

A few months ago, I said that a higher minimum wage can lead to creative destruction.

Today, a new QJE paper shows exactly that: a higher MW yields "fewer but more productive firms".

High wages often improve economic efficiency! It's a crucial part of the Nordic model.