Giri Subramaniam

Economist @CitizensBank (views are my own) || Musician || Crossword enthusiast • Coffee fanatic || @RecordingAcad Voting Member

[Giri Subramaniam @giri_subram]

@florianederer Should’ve used LaTeX

[Giri Subramaniam @giri_subram]

… and he went on to serve in the board of governors at the Fed…

[Florian Ederer @florianederer]

Remember the ridiculous "Liberation Day" tariff formula?

Phil Magness went to great lengths to figure out who came up with it ...

... and it's, of course, exactly who we all suspected all along.

[Giri Subramaniam @giri_subram]

Why are there towels on almost every sofa and chair?

[Congress @INCIndia]

INDIA bloc leaders met in the chamber of Congress President & Rajya Sabha LoP Shri @kharge.

LoP Shri @RahulGandhi was also present.

📍 New Delhi

[Giri Subramaniam @giri_subram]

@AnnaEconomist More eloquently put by @JonSteinsson
https://t.co/KCBVsQ1KKn

[Jon Steinsson @JonSteinsson]

Kevin Warsh says he wants to see "direct" and "unfiltered" signals from markets. This is a rationale he gives for offering less guidance about future policy actions than his predecessors. He says that, as a consequence, markets have started to “play the ball, not the referee”. He points to the increase in bond yields over the past 6 weeks as a useful direct and unfiltered signal from markets.

I find this confusing. Bond yields are fundamentally tied to expectations about future short rates. The Fed controls the short rate. So, bond yields are fundamentally governed by market expectations about what the Fed will do going forward.

In this sense, I don’t understand what direct and unfiltered signals from markets mean.

Perhaps it means the bond market’s current understanding of the Fed’s reaction function (in addition to expectations about fundamentals). But why would the Fed be interested in observing this in a direct and unfiltered manner?

When Warsh speaks, it sounds like he thinks he is learning something else. But this is what I don’t understand. What does he think he is learning from the direct and unfiltered signals?

It is quite likely that markets don’t have a completely correct view of the Fed’s reaction function. Especially in this case, the rationale for speaking less and observing direct and unfiltered signals from markets seems problematic.

[Giri Subramaniam @giri_subram]

@AnnaEconomist Hmm if long rates rise because inflation expectations rise, doesn’t that flip the script a bit? Esp if those expectations turn out to accurate?

[Giri Subramaniam @giri_subram]

@Tejasvi_Surya Now under BJP you can suck at Math, Phys, and Chem. Under congress you could only suck at math… 😎

[Giri Subramaniam @giri_subram]

@krishashok Once again, egg-cellent, as always!

[Giri Subramaniam @giri_subram]

@krishashok Chumma egg-cellent, Sir! 👏🏾

[Giri Subramaniam @giri_subram]

@ShamikaRavi @ShivAroor Both can be true. It’s a market solution in a labor market where workers are frequently exploited in an undignified manner.

[Anna Wong @AnnaEconomist]

From @UChi_Economics ‘s John List (Also Walmart chief economist) on AI

[Giri Subramaniam @giri_subram]

@QuantumIndian3 @ShamikaRavi Exactly. It takes literally five seconds to check the source, which she clearly didn’t do! Shame.

[Giri Subramaniam @giri_subram]

@Noahpinion Literally just logged in to twitter for today... I guess that's enough of this website for today!

[Giri Subramaniam @giri_subram]

@BhagiaDiv Congrats!! 🥳

[Giri Subramaniam @giri_subram]

@SubramanianKri I can relate to this! Sleeping while standing is such an essential skill. The one time I mistakenly took the Virar fast while returning I will never forget...

[John Mclaughlin @jmcl_gtr]

Shakti: This Moment album review @ All About Jazz https://t.co/s9u1nfwvEB

[Giri Subramaniam @giri_subram]

@VaidyaTanya @anweshab19 Okay wow! And I was here asking serious questions. I take everything back.

[Giri Subramaniam @giri_subram]

@pramit_b I still don't understand the odd choice of scales to "highlight" the confidence intervals argument here. Apart from attempting visual gimmicks. It's also... unnecessary? Can somebody explain again pls.

[Giri Subramaniam @giri_subram]

@srajagopalan Beautifully done with the clickbait Shakti song name as the title!! Love it!

[Giri Subramaniam @giri_subram]

What a beautiful and enlightening episode by Prof @AshwDeshpande and @srajagopalan! A must listen if you're even slightly interested in caste discrimination, reservation, gender (and Bollywood!) in India.
https://t.co/qCdTIpMHqu

[Giri Subramaniam @giri_subram]

Aaand it’s finally out! Out on all streaming platforms here https://t.co/H3TrW6oNhR. Don’t miss the MUSIC VIDEO on Friday at 9 AM Eastern / 6:30 PM IST / 6:00 AM Pacific. #SundariPennae #BIExShreya

[Berklee Indian Ensemble @BCMIndianEns]

Sundari Pennae is streaming!

@BCMIndianEns featuring @ShreyaGhoshal

Listen here: https://t.co/9AhZxz3YP7

#sundaripennae #BIExShreya #BerkleeIndianEnsemble #ShreyaGhoshal