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[Crypto Snorlax @CryptoSnorlax]

$SATS is gonna go for a $GME $AMC $NEGG style short squeeze. Can we get the WSB apes in.

[バンドゥ @gloga888]

@leevalueroach $SATS

https://t.co/p8iZgElFsS

[HN @PassionAndLuck]

$SATS NAV Analysis

With the SpaceX / SPCX IPO scheduled for 6/12, I want to highlight what may be the most undervalued stock in the S&P 500.

Mcap is only 33B.

$SATS will own approximately 2% of SpaceX / SPCX.

According to the SPCX prospectus, SPCX will acquire spectrum from SATS in exchange for 261.8M shares of SPCX stock, approximately $8.5B in cash, and an additional roughly $2.0B in cash to cover interest payments that SATS was expected to make.

In addition, SATS is expected to sell approximately $23B of spectrum to $T. That transaction was approved by the FCC on 5/12 and is expected to receive final approval around 6/11, leading to the formal closing of the transaction.

Now, let’s do the math.

My base NAV assumptions:

• SPCX ownership equivalent: approximately 2%

• SATS basic shares outstanding: 298M

• Fully diluted share count after convertible debt conversion: 348M
I use 348M shares for the calculation below.

• Cash proceeds from spectrum sales to $T and $SPCX:
approximately $23B from $T
approximately $8B of cash from $SPCX
total: approximately $31B

• If the convertible debt converts into equity, net cash after debt minus cash becomes approximately $11B

• Regulatory / escrow / contingent liability haircut: -$2.5B

• Net cash after haircut: approximately $8.5B

• Residual operating business value: $10B
2026 Q1 operating income of approximately $300M × 4 quarters × 8x multiple

• Even after selling spectrum to $T and $SPCX, SATS will still retain residual spectrum assets. The most notable example is AWS-3 paired spectrum, which SATS previously planned to sell to $VZ for approximately $9.8B.

If we conservatively value the remaining spectrum at $10B, that alone adds approximately $28.7 per share of NAV based on 348M shares.

Formula:

SATS NAV
= {SPCX market cap × 2% + net cash after haircut + residual operating business value + remaining spectrum value} / 348M shares

= {SPCX market cap × 2% + $8.5B + $10B + $10B} / 348M shares

SATS NAV by SPCX market cap:

• SPCX $2.0T → SATS approximately $197
• SPCX $2.25T → SATS approximately $211
• SPCX $2.5T → SATS approximately $226
• SPCX $2.75T → SATS approximately $240
• SPCX $3.0T → SATS approximately $254

The key point is that this is not a normal NAV discount trade.

Even if SPCX prices the IPO around $1.75T, the actual initial float could be extremely thin.

Most of the IPO shares are likely to be pre-allocated to institutional and retail investors.

That means the number of shares actually available in the open market on IPO day could be far smaller than the headline IPO size suggests.

The real question is not:

“How many SPCX shares will be issued?”

The real question is:

“What is the actual dollar value of SPCX shares available to buy in the open market on IPO day?”

If the day-one public float is limited, and global institutions, retail investors, Musk-related capital, AI funds, and space-theme capital all rush in, SPCX could temporarily trade at $2.5T–$3.0T or even higher.

The possibility of early Nasdaq-100 inclusion should also not be ignored.

Nasdaq recently changed its rules to make it easier for mega-cap IPOs to be added to the index early.

If SPCX shows a massive market cap and sufficient liquidity soon after listing, it could become a candidate for index inclusion without waiting for the regular annual rebalance.

That said, if SPCX’s float is extremely low, it will likely be affected by float-adjusted weighting and index weight limits.

So Nasdaq-100 inclusion alone should not be used to justify the entire thesis.

Still, the expectation of index inclusion could trigger front-running by institutions, ETFs, and event-driven funds.

If that happens, SPCX supply-demand could tighten further, and SATS NAV would be repriced in real time.

[バンドゥ @gloga888]

@Sam_Badawi The excess demand of SPCX is almost certain. If SPCX can raise more than 75B, I would like to add that the $SATS, which will hold SPCX shares, is currently quite rated as a discount.
$SATS
¥SPCX

https://t.co/p8iZgElFsS

[HN @PassionAndLuck]

$SATS NAV Analysis

With the SpaceX / SPCX IPO scheduled for 6/12, I want to highlight what may be the most undervalued stock in the S&P 500.

Mcap is only 33B.

$SATS will own approximately 2% of SpaceX / SPCX.

According to the SPCX prospectus, SPCX will acquire spectrum from SATS in exchange for 261.8M shares of SPCX stock, approximately $8.5B in cash, and an additional roughly $2.0B in cash to cover interest payments that SATS was expected to make.

In addition, SATS is expected to sell approximately $23B of spectrum to $T. That transaction was approved by the FCC on 5/12 and is expected to receive final approval around 6/11, leading to the formal closing of the transaction.

Now, let’s do the math.

My base NAV assumptions:

• SPCX ownership equivalent: approximately 2%

• SATS basic shares outstanding: 298M

• Fully diluted share count after convertible debt conversion: 348M
I use 348M shares for the calculation below.

• Cash proceeds from spectrum sales to $T and $SPCX:
approximately $23B from $T
approximately $8B of cash from $SPCX
total: approximately $31B

• If the convertible debt converts into equity, net cash after debt minus cash becomes approximately $11B

• Regulatory / escrow / contingent liability haircut: -$2.5B

• Net cash after haircut: approximately $8.5B

• Residual operating business value: $10B
2026 Q1 operating income of approximately $300M × 4 quarters × 8x multiple

• Even after selling spectrum to $T and $SPCX, SATS will still retain residual spectrum assets. The most notable example is AWS-3 paired spectrum, which SATS previously planned to sell to $VZ for approximately $9.8B.

If we conservatively value the remaining spectrum at $10B, that alone adds approximately $28.7 per share of NAV based on 348M shares.

Formula:

SATS NAV
= {SPCX market cap × 2% + net cash after haircut + residual operating business value + remaining spectrum value} / 348M shares

= {SPCX market cap × 2% + $8.5B + $10B + $10B} / 348M shares

SATS NAV by SPCX market cap:

• SPCX $2.0T → SATS approximately $197
• SPCX $2.25T → SATS approximately $211
• SPCX $2.5T → SATS approximately $226
• SPCX $2.75T → SATS approximately $240
• SPCX $3.0T → SATS approximately $254

The key point is that this is not a normal NAV discount trade.

Even if SPCX prices the IPO around $1.75T, the actual initial float could be extremely thin.

Most of the IPO shares are likely to be pre-allocated to institutional and retail investors.

That means the number of shares actually available in the open market on IPO day could be far smaller than the headline IPO size suggests.

The real question is not:

“How many SPCX shares will be issued?”

The real question is:

“What is the actual dollar value of SPCX shares available to buy in the open market on IPO day?”

If the day-one public float is limited, and global institutions, retail investors, Musk-related capital, AI funds, and space-theme capital all rush in, SPCX could temporarily trade at $2.5T–$3.0T or even higher.

The possibility of early Nasdaq-100 inclusion should also not be ignored.

Nasdaq recently changed its rules to make it easier for mega-cap IPOs to be added to the index early.

If SPCX shows a massive market cap and sufficient liquidity soon after listing, it could become a candidate for index inclusion without waiting for the regular annual rebalance.

That said, if SPCX’s float is extremely low, it will likely be affected by float-adjusted weighting and index weight limits.

So Nasdaq-100 inclusion alone should not be used to justify the entire thesis.

Still, the expectation of index inclusion could trigger front-running by institutions, ETFs, and event-driven funds.

If that happens, SPCX supply-demand could tighten further, and SATS NAV would be repriced in real time.

[バンドゥ @gloga888]

@PassionAndLuck ありがとうございます！中長期ではSpaceXは上という声が多いので、私もSATSはもっと高い値で評価されるべきと思う一方で、ショーターが多いにしてもこんなにもずっと低迷してるのがやはり違和感あり…なんでもいいから早く上に爆発してほしいですね😇

[バンドゥ @gloga888]

Great analysis here

[Coffee House Stocks @CoffeeStocksGuy]

@PassionAndLuck Great post - I've just done a report on $SATS here.

https://t.co/nq664qrHbs

[バンドゥ @gloga888]

@PassionAndLuck もはやSATS自体はCPIに影響受けなそうですけど、SpaceXに悪影響ですもんね…頼むイーロン

[𝒰𝓂𝒷𝒾𝓈𝒶𝓂 @Umbisam]

$SATS Quite Accurate 👇

[バンドゥ @gloga888]

@Sam_Badawi If you estimate the exceed demand at the time of IPO of $SPCX, it is recommended to invest in $SATS by 12 June.
I’ll quote the interesting analysis from the Japanese investor;
$SATS

[HN @PassionAndLuck]

$SATS NAV Analysis

With the SpaceX / SPCX IPO scheduled for 6/12, I want to highlight what may be the most undervalued stock in the S&P 500.

Mcap is only 33B.

$SATS will own approximately 2% of SpaceX / SPCX.

According to the SPCX prospectus, SPCX will acquire spectrum from SATS in exchange for 261.8M shares of SPCX stock, approximately $8.5B in cash, and an additional roughly $2.0B in cash to cover interest payments that SATS was expected to make.

In addition, SATS is expected to sell approximately $23B of spectrum to $T. That transaction was approved by the FCC on 5/12 and is expected to receive final approval around 6/11, leading to the formal closing of the transaction.

Now, let’s do the math.

My base NAV assumptions:

• SPCX ownership equivalent: approximately 2%

• SATS basic shares outstanding: 298M

• Fully diluted share count after convertible debt conversion: 348M
I use 348M shares for the calculation below.

• Cash proceeds from spectrum sales to $T and $SPCX:
approximately $23B from $T
approximately $8B of cash from $SPCX
total: approximately $31B

• If the convertible debt converts into equity, net cash after debt minus cash becomes approximately $11B

• Regulatory / escrow / contingent liability haircut: -$2.5B

• Net cash after haircut: approximately $8.5B

• Residual operating business value: $10B
2026 Q1 operating income of approximately $300M × 4 quarters × 8x multiple

• Even after selling spectrum to $T and $SPCX, SATS will still retain residual spectrum assets. The most notable example is AWS-3 paired spectrum, which SATS previously planned to sell to $VZ for approximately $9.8B.

If we conservatively value the remaining spectrum at $10B, that alone adds approximately $28.7 per share of NAV based on 348M shares.

Formula:

SATS NAV
= {SPCX market cap × 2% + net cash after haircut + residual operating business value + remaining spectrum value} / 348M shares

= {SPCX market cap × 2% + $8.5B + $10B + $10B} / 348M shares

SATS NAV by SPCX market cap:

• SPCX $2.0T → SATS approximately $197
• SPCX $2.25T → SATS approximately $211
• SPCX $2.5T → SATS approximately $226
• SPCX $2.75T → SATS approximately $240
• SPCX $3.0T → SATS approximately $254

The key point is that this is not a normal NAV discount trade.

Even if SPCX prices the IPO around $1.75T, the actual initial float could be extremely thin.

Most of the IPO shares are likely to be pre-allocated to institutional and retail investors.

That means the number of shares actually available in the open market on IPO day could be far smaller than the headline IPO size suggests.

The real question is not:

“How many SPCX shares will be issued?”

The real question is:

“What is the actual dollar value of SPCX shares available to buy in the open market on IPO day?”

If the day-one public float is limited, and global institutions, retail investors, Musk-related capital, AI funds, and space-theme capital all rush in, SPCX could temporarily trade at $2.5T–$3.0T or even higher.

The possibility of early Nasdaq-100 inclusion should also not be ignored.

Nasdaq recently changed its rules to make it easier for mega-cap IPOs to be added to the index early.

If SPCX shows a massive market cap and sufficient liquidity soon after listing, it could become a candidate for index inclusion without waiting for the regular annual rebalance.

That said, if SPCX’s float is extremely low, it will likely be affected by float-adjusted weighting and index weight limits.

So Nasdaq-100 inclusion alone should not be used to justify the entire thesis.

Still, the expectation of index inclusion could trigger front-running by institutions, ETFs, and event-driven funds.

If that happens, SPCX supply-demand could tighten further, and SATS NAV would be repriced in real time.

[バンドゥ @gloga888]

@TrendSpider And the stock that already owns SpaceX shares and is traded at a significantly lower price is $SATS.
$SPCX
$SATS

I’ll quote the detailed analysis;
https://t.co/p8iZgElFsS

[HN @PassionAndLuck]

$SATS NAV Analysis

With the SpaceX / SPCX IPO scheduled for 6/12, I want to highlight what may be the most undervalued stock in the S&P 500.

Mcap is only 33B.

$SATS will own approximately 2% of SpaceX / SPCX.

According to the SPCX prospectus, SPCX will acquire spectrum from SATS in exchange for 261.8M shares of SPCX stock, approximately $8.5B in cash, and an additional roughly $2.0B in cash to cover interest payments that SATS was expected to make.

In addition, SATS is expected to sell approximately $23B of spectrum to $T. That transaction was approved by the FCC on 5/12 and is expected to receive final approval around 6/11, leading to the formal closing of the transaction.

Now, let’s do the math.

My base NAV assumptions:

• SPCX ownership equivalent: approximately 2%

• SATS basic shares outstanding: 298M

• Fully diluted share count after convertible debt conversion: 348M
I use 348M shares for the calculation below.

• Cash proceeds from spectrum sales to $T and $SPCX:
approximately $23B from $T
approximately $8B of cash from $SPCX
total: approximately $31B

• If the convertible debt converts into equity, net cash after debt minus cash becomes approximately $11B

• Regulatory / escrow / contingent liability haircut: -$2.5B

• Net cash after haircut: approximately $8.5B

• Residual operating business value: $10B
2026 Q1 operating income of approximately $300M × 4 quarters × 8x multiple

• Even after selling spectrum to $T and $SPCX, SATS will still retain residual spectrum assets. The most notable example is AWS-3 paired spectrum, which SATS previously planned to sell to $VZ for approximately $9.8B.

If we conservatively value the remaining spectrum at $10B, that alone adds approximately $28.7 per share of NAV based on 348M shares.

Formula:

SATS NAV
= {SPCX market cap × 2% + net cash after haircut + residual operating business value + remaining spectrum value} / 348M shares

= {SPCX market cap × 2% + $8.5B + $10B + $10B} / 348M shares

SATS NAV by SPCX market cap:

• SPCX $2.0T → SATS approximately $197
• SPCX $2.25T → SATS approximately $211
• SPCX $2.5T → SATS approximately $226
• SPCX $2.75T → SATS approximately $240
• SPCX $3.0T → SATS approximately $254

The key point is that this is not a normal NAV discount trade.

Even if SPCX prices the IPO around $1.75T, the actual initial float could be extremely thin.

Most of the IPO shares are likely to be pre-allocated to institutional and retail investors.

That means the number of shares actually available in the open market on IPO day could be far smaller than the headline IPO size suggests.

The real question is not:

“How many SPCX shares will be issued?”

The real question is:

“What is the actual dollar value of SPCX shares available to buy in the open market on IPO day?”

If the day-one public float is limited, and global institutions, retail investors, Musk-related capital, AI funds, and space-theme capital all rush in, SPCX could temporarily trade at $2.5T–$3.0T or even higher.

The possibility of early Nasdaq-100 inclusion should also not be ignored.

Nasdaq recently changed its rules to make it easier for mega-cap IPOs to be added to the index early.

If SPCX shows a massive market cap and sufficient liquidity soon after listing, it could become a candidate for index inclusion without waiting for the regular annual rebalance.

That said, if SPCX’s float is extremely low, it will likely be affected by float-adjusted weighting and index weight limits.

So Nasdaq-100 inclusion alone should not be used to justify the entire thesis.

Still, the expectation of index inclusion could trigger front-running by institutions, ETFs, and event-driven funds.

If that happens, SPCX supply-demand could tighten further, and SATS NAV would be repriced in real time.

[バンドゥ @gloga888]

I'll quote a post from the investor who has made an interesting and detailed analysis of $SATS;
$SATS

https://t.co/p8iZgElFsS

[HN @PassionAndLuck]

$SATS NAV Analysis

With the SpaceX / SPCX IPO scheduled for 6/12, I want to highlight what may be the most undervalued stock in the S&P 500.

Mcap is only 33B.

$SATS will own approximately 2% of SpaceX / SPCX.

According to the SPCX prospectus, SPCX will acquire spectrum from SATS in exchange for 261.8M shares of SPCX stock, approximately $8.5B in cash, and an additional roughly $2.0B in cash to cover interest payments that SATS was expected to make.

In addition, SATS is expected to sell approximately $23B of spectrum to $T. That transaction was approved by the FCC on 5/12 and is expected to receive final approval around 6/11, leading to the formal closing of the transaction.

Now, let’s do the math.

My base NAV assumptions:

• SPCX ownership equivalent: approximately 2%

• SATS basic shares outstanding: 298M

• Fully diluted share count after convertible debt conversion: 348M
I use 348M shares for the calculation below.

• Cash proceeds from spectrum sales to $T and $SPCX:
approximately $23B from $T
approximately $8B of cash from $SPCX
total: approximately $31B

• If the convertible debt converts into equity, net cash after debt minus cash becomes approximately $11B

• Regulatory / escrow / contingent liability haircut: -$2.5B

• Net cash after haircut: approximately $8.5B

• Residual operating business value: $10B
2026 Q1 operating income of approximately $300M × 4 quarters × 8x multiple

• Even after selling spectrum to $T and $SPCX, SATS will still retain residual spectrum assets. The most notable example is AWS-3 paired spectrum, which SATS previously planned to sell to $VZ for approximately $9.8B.

If we conservatively value the remaining spectrum at $10B, that alone adds approximately $28.7 per share of NAV based on 348M shares.

Formula:

SATS NAV
= {SPCX market cap × 2% + net cash after haircut + residual operating business value + remaining spectrum value} / 348M shares

= {SPCX market cap × 2% + $8.5B + $10B + $10B} / 348M shares

SATS NAV by SPCX market cap:

• SPCX $2.0T → SATS approximately $197
• SPCX $2.25T → SATS approximately $211
• SPCX $2.5T → SATS approximately $226
• SPCX $2.75T → SATS approximately $240
• SPCX $3.0T → SATS approximately $254

The key point is that this is not a normal NAV discount trade.

Even if SPCX prices the IPO around $1.75T, the actual initial float could be extremely thin.

Most of the IPO shares are likely to be pre-allocated to institutional and retail investors.

That means the number of shares actually available in the open market on IPO day could be far smaller than the headline IPO size suggests.

The real question is not:

“How many SPCX shares will be issued?”

The real question is:

“What is the actual dollar value of SPCX shares available to buy in the open market on IPO day?”

If the day-one public float is limited, and global institutions, retail investors, Musk-related capital, AI funds, and space-theme capital all rush in, SPCX could temporarily trade at $2.5T–$3.0T or even higher.

The possibility of early Nasdaq-100 inclusion should also not be ignored.

Nasdaq recently changed its rules to make it easier for mega-cap IPOs to be added to the index early.

If SPCX shows a massive market cap and sufficient liquidity soon after listing, it could become a candidate for index inclusion without waiting for the regular annual rebalance.

That said, if SPCX’s float is extremely low, it will likely be affected by float-adjusted weighting and index weight limits.

So Nasdaq-100 inclusion alone should not be used to justify the entire thesis.

Still, the expectation of index inclusion could trigger front-running by institutions, ETFs, and event-driven funds.

If that happens, SPCX supply-demand could tighten further, and SATS NAV would be repriced in real time.

[バンドゥ @gloga888]

The stock that has the potential to become a millionaire even more speculatively using SPCX is SATS.
$SATS
$SPCX

https://t.co/p8iZgElFsS

[Polymarket @Polymarket]

JUST IN: Elon Musk predicts SpaceX could become the largest & most profitable company in this sector of the galaxy.

[バンドゥ @gloga888]

https://t.co/Zotmkda7vC

[HN @PassionAndLuck]

$SATS NAV Analysis

With the SpaceX / SPCX IPO scheduled for 6/12, I want to highlight what may be the most undervalued stock in the S&P 500.

Mcap is only 33B.

$SATS will own approximately 2% of SpaceX / SPCX.

According to the SPCX prospectus, SPCX will acquire spectrum from SATS in exchange for 261.8M shares of SPCX stock, approximately $8.5B in cash, and an additional roughly $2.0B in cash to cover interest payments that SATS was expected to make.

In addition, SATS is expected to sell approximately $23B of spectrum to $T. That transaction was approved by the FCC on 5/12 and is expected to receive final approval around 6/11, leading to the formal closing of the transaction.

Now, let’s do the math.

My base NAV assumptions:

• SPCX ownership equivalent: approximately 2%

• SATS basic shares outstanding: 298M

• Fully diluted share count after convertible debt conversion: 348M
I use 348M shares for the calculation below.

• Cash proceeds from spectrum sales to $T and $SPCX:
approximately $23B from $T
approximately $8B of cash from $SPCX
total: approximately $31B

• If the convertible debt converts into equity, net cash after debt minus cash becomes approximately $11B

• Regulatory / escrow / contingent liability haircut: -$2.5B

• Net cash after haircut: approximately $8.5B

• Residual operating business value: $10B
2026 Q1 operating income of approximately $300M × 4 quarters × 8x multiple

• Even after selling spectrum to $T and $SPCX, SATS will still retain residual spectrum assets. The most notable example is AWS-3 paired spectrum, which SATS previously planned to sell to $VZ for approximately $9.8B.

If we conservatively value the remaining spectrum at $10B, that alone adds approximately $28.7 per share of NAV based on 348M shares.

Formula:

SATS NAV
= {SPCX market cap × 2% + net cash after haircut + residual operating business value + remaining spectrum value} / 348M shares

= {SPCX market cap × 2% + $8.5B + $10B + $10B} / 348M shares

SATS NAV by SPCX market cap:

• SPCX $2.0T → SATS approximately $197
• SPCX $2.25T → SATS approximately $211
• SPCX $2.5T → SATS approximately $226
• SPCX $2.75T → SATS approximately $240
• SPCX $3.0T → SATS approximately $254

The key point is that this is not a normal NAV discount trade.

Even if SPCX prices the IPO around $1.75T, the actual initial float could be extremely thin.

Most of the IPO shares are likely to be pre-allocated to institutional and retail investors.

That means the number of shares actually available in the open market on IPO day could be far smaller than the headline IPO size suggests.

The real question is not:

“How many SPCX shares will be issued?”

The real question is:

“What is the actual dollar value of SPCX shares available to buy in the open market on IPO day?”

If the day-one public float is limited, and global institutions, retail investors, Musk-related capital, AI funds, and space-theme capital all rush in, SPCX could temporarily trade at $2.5T–$3.0T or even higher.

The possibility of early Nasdaq-100 inclusion should also not be ignored.

Nasdaq recently changed its rules to make it easier for mega-cap IPOs to be added to the index early.

If SPCX shows a massive market cap and sufficient liquidity soon after listing, it could become a candidate for index inclusion without waiting for the regular annual rebalance.

That said, if SPCX’s float is extremely low, it will likely be affected by float-adjusted weighting and index weight limits.

So Nasdaq-100 inclusion alone should not be used to justify the entire thesis.

Still, the expectation of index inclusion could trigger front-running by institutions, ETFs, and event-driven funds.

If that happens, SPCX supply-demand could tighten further, and SATS NAV would be repriced in real time.

[バンドゥ @gloga888]

Reach out to SATS, which is being traded at a ridiculously low price because of the hedging of SPCX.
$SATS

https://t.co/p8iZgElFsS

[Evan @StockMKTNewz]

Polymarket currently thinks there is a 64% chance that SpaceX $SPCX ends its first day of trading above a $2 Trillion market cap

[バンドゥ @gloga888]

@Umbisam Totally agree to your insights about $SATS .

I'll quote a post from the investor who has made an interesting and detailed analysis of SATS;

[HN @PassionAndLuck]

$SATS NAV Analysis

With the SpaceX / SPCX IPO scheduled for 6/12, I want to highlight what may be the most undervalued stock in the S&P 500.

Mcap is only 33B.

$SATS will own approximately 2% of SpaceX / SPCX.

According to the SPCX prospectus, SPCX will acquire spectrum from SATS in exchange for 261.8M shares of SPCX stock, approximately $8.5B in cash, and an additional roughly $2.0B in cash to cover interest payments that SATS was expected to make.

In addition, SATS is expected to sell approximately $23B of spectrum to $T. That transaction was approved by the FCC on 5/12 and is expected to receive final approval around 6/11, leading to the formal closing of the transaction.

Now, let’s do the math.

My base NAV assumptions:

• SPCX ownership equivalent: approximately 2%

• SATS basic shares outstanding: 298M

• Fully diluted share count after convertible debt conversion: 348M
I use 348M shares for the calculation below.

• Cash proceeds from spectrum sales to $T and $SPCX:
approximately $23B from $T
approximately $8B of cash from $SPCX
total: approximately $31B

• If the convertible debt converts into equity, net cash after debt minus cash becomes approximately $11B

• Regulatory / escrow / contingent liability haircut: -$2.5B

• Net cash after haircut: approximately $8.5B

• Residual operating business value: $10B
2026 Q1 operating income of approximately $300M × 4 quarters × 8x multiple

• Even after selling spectrum to $T and $SPCX, SATS will still retain residual spectrum assets. The most notable example is AWS-3 paired spectrum, which SATS previously planned to sell to $VZ for approximately $9.8B.

If we conservatively value the remaining spectrum at $10B, that alone adds approximately $28.7 per share of NAV based on 348M shares.

Formula:

SATS NAV
= {SPCX market cap × 2% + net cash after haircut + residual operating business value + remaining spectrum value} / 348M shares

= {SPCX market cap × 2% + $8.5B + $10B + $10B} / 348M shares

SATS NAV by SPCX market cap:

• SPCX $2.0T → SATS approximately $197
• SPCX $2.25T → SATS approximately $211
• SPCX $2.5T → SATS approximately $226
• SPCX $2.75T → SATS approximately $240
• SPCX $3.0T → SATS approximately $254

The key point is that this is not a normal NAV discount trade.

Even if SPCX prices the IPO around $1.75T, the actual initial float could be extremely thin.

Most of the IPO shares are likely to be pre-allocated to institutional and retail investors.

That means the number of shares actually available in the open market on IPO day could be far smaller than the headline IPO size suggests.

The real question is not:

“How many SPCX shares will be issued?”

The real question is:

“What is the actual dollar value of SPCX shares available to buy in the open market on IPO day?”

If the day-one public float is limited, and global institutions, retail investors, Musk-related capital, AI funds, and space-theme capital all rush in, SPCX could temporarily trade at $2.5T–$3.0T or even higher.

The possibility of early Nasdaq-100 inclusion should also not be ignored.

Nasdaq recently changed its rules to make it easier for mega-cap IPOs to be added to the index early.

If SPCX shows a massive market cap and sufficient liquidity soon after listing, it could become a candidate for index inclusion without waiting for the regular annual rebalance.

That said, if SPCX’s float is extremely low, it will likely be affected by float-adjusted weighting and index weight limits.

So Nasdaq-100 inclusion alone should not be used to justify the entire thesis.

Still, the expectation of index inclusion could trigger front-running by institutions, ETFs, and event-driven funds.

If that happens, SPCX supply-demand could tighten further, and SATS NAV would be repriced in real time.

[𝒰𝓂𝒷𝒾𝓈𝒶𝓂 @Umbisam]

$SATS Short Term Catalysts & Timeline

1. AT&T Closing & Cash In (~$22.5B) - Jun 8 ~ Jun 19
2. SpaceX IPO - Jun 12

Investors want to see cash in the bank ! And, possibly, a $5B buyback announcement ... same day !

@EchoStar

[𝒰𝓂𝒷𝒾𝓈𝒶𝓂 @Umbisam]

$SATS

[𝒰𝓂𝒷𝒾𝓈𝒶𝓂 @Umbisam]

for further context, we are still a week off from IPO … the 2x can easily keep growing meantime

for further-further context, by buying $SATS you buy at much less than $135 per $SPCX shares … AND as many as you like

[バンドゥ @gloga888]

@PassionAndLuck でも時間外で120ドル切ってきましたね…ちょっと下がりすぎ…