Gerard Walsh

Economist

[Gerard Walsh @gmwalsh]

@JesusFerna7026 Great work, loved it

[Gerard Walsh @gmwalsh]

@lymanstoneky That chart is also interesting in that it runs counter to the myth of extreme Quebecois fecundity / “revenge of the cradle” / Catholic Church driving high birth rates persisting into the 1950s.

[Gerard Walsh @gmwalsh]

@TristinHopper Give us examples of both. I’m genuinely curious

[Gerard Walsh @gmwalsh]

@JesusFerna7026 It doesn’t, maybe works for one more generation of westerners, but that’s it.

[Gerard Walsh @gmwalsh]

@Smirkley One interpretation here is that white Canadians are more likely to move to places where their share is higher when they become parents, but Asian immigrants particularly are tied tightly to large metros. Do you know what fertility looks like by race within each metro?

[Gerard Walsh @gmwalsh]

@lymanstoneky @Smirkley Reverse causation? Countries create generous childcare in response to low fertility.

[Gerard Walsh @gmwalsh]

@robkhenderson If this is true, it would predict that children that are more spaced out within families would see less impact. Did they look at that?

[Gerard Walsh @gmwalsh]

@Smirkley @lymanstoneky is this correct / consistent with your finding that fertility is positively related to income

[Gerard Walsh @gmwalsh]

@xwanyex The categorical imperative to take responsibility for your life, family and property.

[Gerard Walsh @gmwalsh]

@Smirkley @whyvert Can you show rural areas of provinces?

[Gerard Walsh @gmwalsh]

@IgnoranceDisp @TristinHopper The opposite is true

[Gerard Walsh @gmwalsh]

@gaulicsmith Women with 3+ kids in western countries are disproportionately religious, marry early, put a lot of value on marriage and community as such, and report their career or consumption as less important to them.

[Gerard Walsh @gmwalsh]

@epkaufm Australia and UK had conservative governments presiding over Gen Z’s formative years politically — and those years saw affordability deteriorate a lot. So thermostatic response to failure?

Theory works for Canada, not sure about Europe. US doesn’t fit I admit

[Gerard Walsh @gmwalsh]

@epkaufm @DavidRozado Do we know CBC and other major media in Canada?

[Gerard Walsh @gmwalsh]

@xwanyex There should be an equilibrium where WFH is on offer for less pay so business still gets the value and employees get the option. I don’t understand why this doesn’t exist.

[Gerard Walsh @gmwalsh]

@MoreBirths What’s going on in Bulgaria? They used to be ultra low fertility!

[Gerard Walsh @gmwalsh]

@cremieuxrecueil Is there data on the converse? Which professions are likely to generate upward vs. Downwardly mobile kids? My prior is teachers kids do better

[Gerard Walsh @gmwalsh]

@danielfoch This is definitely possible. Canadas population growth, the distribution of that growth, and real economic growth will be the driver that matters. People say immigration will always mean more people, but politically that’s changing and globally peak births was back in 2016.

[Gerard Walsh @gmwalsh]

@gaulicsmith There is a number that would move the needle, but the action isn’t getting the childless to one, it’s getting those with two to three or four.