gnar

CTO @pumpcade | ex @limitbreak senior solidity engineer |

[gnar @gnarzilla]

I’ve been obsessed with @pumpcade ever since @PopPunkOnChain told me about the pivot to parimutuel markets for streams

It opens the door to an enormous design space for integrations, participation, and new market experiences

Couldn’t be more excited to bring this from 0 to 1

[Pop Punk @PopPunkOnChain]

Excited to share the first people that will be joining the @pumpcade team.

@gnarzilla - CTO
@steoniy - CPO

I’ve been fortunate to work closely with these two guys during my career and am extremely lucky to bring them onboard to build the fastest prediction platform

Pumpcade.

[gnar @gnarzilla]

@icobeast “Sorry QA didn’t catch this because we didn’t expect ETH to be such a horribly performing asset.”

[gnar @gnarzilla]

I think on chain zk proofs are VERY COOL! I'm really excited to see it expand - just saw that zkproofs were used to prove a quantum computing jump without revealing the research behind it.

But I don't think they solve the problem I'm talking about here. With an ambiguous market (I.E. the zelensky suit market or this wording error on the Strategy bitcoin sale) there still needs to be some form of subjective resolution.

In that case, some group would still need to provide the data to the ZK prover, there's still the same trust assumptions.

[gnar @gnarzilla]

"Don't trust, verify."

That's been crypto's claim for a long time, but it only works if you can actually verify.

Every system has trust assumptions. The chain, the oracle, the data source, the path from the real world into the machine. What crypto actually changes is not whether trust exists, it is whether trust is visible, narrow, and something people can inspect.

Prediction markets are a good test case for this.

Before a market settles, messiness is expected. People are pricing incomplete information, disagreeing on what's likely, and arguing about what's true before it becomes obvious. The crowd is doing real work.

After settlement, the messiness should stop.

The current Polymarket dispute over Strategy's Bitcoin sale is a clean example of what happens when it doesn't. Strategy sold 32 BTC during the May 26-31 window. The market asked whether Strategy would sell any Bitcoin by May 31. The SEC filing confirming the sale came on June 1.

So the dispute is not really about whether the sale happened. Everyone agrees it did. The dispute is about which interpretation controls: did the market ask whether the sale occurred by May 31, or whether it was publicly confirmed by May 31?

That's a real ambiguity. Once it exists, the market stops being about prediction and starts being about resolution politics.

That's where subjective settlement falls apart.

It doesn't matter whether the resolver is a company, a committee, a validator set, a DAO, a multisig, or token-weighted voters. If settlement depends on what a group of people decides after the fact, trust lives with that group. You haven't eliminated the human judgment problem, you've just moved it somewhere harder to reason about.

The version that actually works is narrower. The rule and the resolution source are both defined before the market opens. The input is observable onchain or from a named publication. The resolver is deterministic, and settlement follows mechanically from that.

Show the path from condition to input to output.

Make it verifiable.

Make it dull.

When resolution isn't boring, trust landed somewhere it shouldn't have.

[Pop Punk @PopPunkOnChain]

I started @pumpcade with the core idea that outcome resolution should be automatic.

It absolutely should not be left up to a group of people to decide, nor should rules be modified mid market.

Pumpcade ONLY allows markets that can be instantly resolved, with zero human input.

[Pop Punk @PopPunkOnChain]

As mentioned prior, we contracted a design studio for the production grade rebrand of @pumpcade

The open beta has served the purpose of monitoring user behavior and getting feedback on the general layout of the application

Here's a sneak peak of where we're at internally

[gnar @gnarzilla]

@permacope @andyhyfi @ThatManG @izebel_eth Constructive criticism is how you improve, that’s simply all I’m trying to do here.

Thank you for your opinion! Hope we’ll be able to change your mind in the future.

[gnar @gnarzilla]

@andyhyfi @permacope @ThatManG @izebel_eth Unbiased and nuanced takes from someone whose personality is hyperliquid are expected!

[gnar @gnarzilla]

Hyperliquid still has a ways to go to be truly “decentralized” by the word of the law. They’re only a few ledgers away from being Binance without the security practices and transparency of being centralized.

Regulation for this is by the CFTC which is very clear. You cannot commingle anonymous sources of funds with users from the US. This is just a fact.

It’d be pretty unprecedented to see this change - but if anyone can do it, it’d be someone with the heat of hyperliquid right now. Cheering for them I’m just not hopeful.

[gnar @gnarzilla]

@andyhyfi @ThatManG @izebel_eth https://t.co/QFrSFfKZw8 for open beta with free usdc, real money will take some time.

[gnar @gnarzilla]

@ThatManG @izebel_eth @andyhyfi Our app has crypto 100% abstracted with fiat on and offboarding.

It will be a web2 experience using crypto as the custodial layer.

Very different from the UX that hyperliquid last I had played with it.

[gnar @gnarzilla]

It’ll be interesting to watch. I am not sure how much more capital comes on chain as the true regulated markets build out infra and UX.

Institutions definitively not (at least in any meaningful size).

New normies also won’t vpn, figure out custody, etc either.

I could very easily see the perps market 100xing but on chain only increasing by 5x.

[gnar @gnarzilla]

This is nice to think of and I would love it to be the case, but if you want to play with the big boys with real liquidity, you're going to have to abide by the rules or pull them over to your side.

I'm thinking the latter will not happen.

You should be old enough to remember https://t.co/zuWGVG1Ytn

[gnar @gnarzilla]

That is not how regulated markets work. The liquidity providers and front ends would be required to maintain checks on the intermingling of funds from anonymous sources.

It will be more like the https://t.co/zuWGVG1Ytn launch where they’d have to fully source new and segmented liquidity unless every participant on hyperliquid is admitted under a regulatory framework that fits into the US requirements.

[Pop Punk @PopPunkOnChain]

Developers are already building on top of @pumpcade

We love to see this, and are going to have robust developer APIs and builder codes.

There is a massive opportunity to build telegram bots, trading tools, and new interfaces on top of Pumpcade.

Pumpcade.

[gnar @gnarzilla]

Unless there is a massive shift in decentralization there is no chance that US funds will comingle with anonymous, unmonitored funds on a shadow bank.

Hyperliquid is a great product and is great for what it does - a non-KYC way for "offshore" people to access perpetuals trading.

But if Hyperliquid is going to start playing with real US funds, it will need to make some drastic changes that you all will NOT like.

[gnar @gnarzilla]

@Gee__Gazza This is a marketing spend for a platform that needs more eyes and more people familiar with it.

I don't fault it, and we will likely do it for exposure, infrastructure stress testing and analytics on how people are using the platform as new participants.

[gnar @gnarzilla]

@icobeast We'll be watching!

[gnar @gnarzilla]

In the world of AI, ideas are not moat and increasingly execution is not moat.

Regulation is.

Big moves by @Kalshi - props to them for showing the world the path for real builders.

[Kalshi @Kalshi]

Perpetual futures are finally coming to America.

Trade on future asset prices with leverage in a regulated, institutional-grade environment.

Only on Kalshi.

[gnar @gnarzilla]

@HiroKennelly Me too brother … me too …

[gnar @gnarzilla]

You keep giving feedback, we'll keep shipping.

Consistency kills.

[Pop Punk @PopPunkOnChain]

We just did a fairly large release to the @pumpcade open beta.

The team is shipping at unprecedented speeds.

Visual:
1. Entirely overhauled PNL cards.
2. Live charts now better convey movement and activity. There are animations driven by underlying asset volatility as well as alerts for predictions placed.
3. More engaging home screen. Pumpcade markets move fast, so it's important that we can drive your eyes to where the activity is, and where your time is best spent. Market cards now visually display when predictions are placed, and shift accordingly to your field of view based on market volume.
4. Prediction buttons have stronger visual feedback. It should feel good to place a prediction.

Infrastructure:
1. Pumpcade markets begin offchain, and the first prediction moves the market onchain. This happens in a single bundled transaction.
2. We fixed a race condition where the home page would occasionally reload data.
3. We have began migrating all of our services off of Railway and onto AWS. A few have already been migrated. Tomorrow we will have a *brief* period of downtime while we complete the migration for the remainder of the services.

Operational:
1. Half of the team is now heads down working on Sports markets. This includes a fully immersive and "fun to watch" experience for the fast paced sports markets. We have calls starting Monday of next week with data providers for these sports markets. It is incredibly important that we get the fastest data, and we will ensure we explore all options to make sure that we have the perfect data for the speed of our markets.
2. We will be onboarding a new team member soon. More on this later.

Keep sending in your feedback using the Intercom button on the app. We read and respond to nearly everything.

Pumpcade.