@TransportKE NTSA is mainly to blame on most accidents taking place in this republic. Have seen vehicles which have been approved as road worth and operating while thy have never been inspected. Deal with your corrupt officers!
In Kenya continued Alshaabab attacks in the North Eastern region and Banditry in the North Rift spoilt a rather GREEN & AMBER rating in the Reporting Period: Monday 28 September โ Sunday 11 October 2026.
The fortnight was dominated by four incidents that interact more than their headlines suggest:
(1) a renewed Al-Shabaab tempo in Garissa, culminating in the 9 October SarethoโDadaab IED that killed the Hagadera OCPD and his driver;
(2) a banditry cycle across Samburu, Turkana and West Pokot that the Interior CS himself put at 14 killed and 17 injured between June and September, with no compensation paid;
(3) Kenya's first confirmed Ebola case, announced 6 October, with a patient who travelled on a domestic flight, was treated in a Nairobi private hospital and died before the announcement;
(4) a cluster of public-order and civil-liberties incidents in Nairobi, Mwea, Mombasa/Lamu and Homa Bay that tested police conduct, media freedom and the state's relationship with the public.
Information cut-off date: 11 October 2026, 23:59 EAT
Forecast โ Fortnight Ahead (12 October โ 25 October 2026):
ASCI assesses a further IED, RPG or ambush against police/KDF in Garissa, Lagdera or Fafi before 25 October as very likely (75โ85%). A mass-casualty (5+ killed) incident is plausible (20โ30%). Mandera is assessed plausible (25โ35%) for a probing attack, rising if Jubalandโfederal friction at Beled Hawo produces displacement or fighting.
Access all regional Security and Threat Environment reports: https://t.co/RcG77V41m1
SITUATION ALERT
Situation: Public Health Measure | Suspension of Government Events
ID: 20261010 | Morning EAT
Loc: Kenya (nationwide directive)
Situation Level: ELEVATED (Level 2) โ Imported Ebola case; precautionary restriction on official gatherings
SITUATION SUMMARY
The Ministry of Health has suspended all government meetings, seminars and conferences scheduled to be held in hotels, effective from 7 October 2026 until further notice.
Details: https://t.co/VEuF4FlUKz
Forecast โ Fortnight Ahead (15โ28 September 2026) Al-Shabaab is assessed as highly likely to sustain or increase its current coordinated, multi-county attack tempo across Lamu, Wajir, Garissa and Mandera into the coming fortnight.
ASCI's Sudan Monthly Security and Threat Assessment | August 2026:
The month opened with the SAF consolidating a major late-July breakthrough - full control of North Kordofan's strategic Export Road following the recapture of Bara, Jabra al-Sheikh and Umm Sayala and closed with sustained RSF reprisal violence against the same region's civilian population, a significant RSF SPLM-N territorial advance in Blue Nile, repeated high-casualty drone strikes on civilian markets in Darfur, and accumulating evidence of a widening regional dimension via both Ethiopia and Chad. Khartoum's month, by contrast, ended on a genuinely positive note with the lifting of the capital's two-year-old curfew.
READ & DOWNLOAD (PDF): https://t.co/OoRn748xUI
September Forecast:
Khartoum's gradual normalisation is expected to continue into September, with further relaxation of security measures plausible if the trend holds.
South Kordofan is expected to remain an active, contested front line into September, with continued SAF defensive.
Continued RSF reprisal violence against civilian populations in the West Bara/Sodari corridor is considered highly likely into September, consistent with the established post-territorial-loss pattern demonstrated throughout August.
Kenya deported Somalia Deputy Prime Minister and former acting President of South West State Jibril Abdirashid.
Kenyan authorities accused him of being in possession of illegally acquired Kenyan documents.
Equally, the Deputy Prime Minister was linked to efforts to destablise border towns close to the kenyan border. He has airlifted arms into one of the town near the kenyan border and from JKIA was proceeding to the said town to arm clan militia and disturb the current peace, tranquility and administration in the border town with serious security consequences on the Kenyan side.
The Deputy Prime Minister was also linked to recent armed conflict in Baidoa town where civilians were killed and hundreds of families displaced.
Efforts by Kenyan politicians to intervene did not succeed.
Jibril Abdirashid renewed his Passport which screenshots will be shared later.
#ActionCountersTerrorism
Incident Alert:
Incident: School Fire
ID: 20260528 | 21:15H
Loc: Gacharage Girls, Kandara, Murangโa County
Issues:
A fire incident occurred at Gacharage Girls. The Murangโa County Government fire and emergency response teams are currently on site.
No casualties reported yet, situation reported under control.
The incident comes amid heightened national concern following recent fatal school fire incidents in other parts of the country.
Advisory:
Parents and guardians are encouraged to rely on verified updates from school administrations and local authorities.
#SecurityAlert
This infographic summarizes incidents involving jihadist groups fighting across Africa, compiled by ACLED. Al Shabaab still appears to be leading in terms of incidents, although there is a noticeable rise in activity across West Africa and the Sahel region.
In the coming years, the conflict is likely to expand further and intensify across West Africa.
#Westafrica
#Sahel
#JNIM
#ISWAP
#ALSHABAAB
I am genuinely struggling to understand this logic.
If the rest of the world is willing to pay a small toll to Iran to keep oil flowing and stabilise markets, then why does the U.S. feel the need to block all shipping, especially when it is not dependent on that oil?
I will never get tired of repeating myself when I say that any attack on innocent seafarers or civilian shipping is totally unacceptable, said @IMOSecGen as he opened the Extraordinary Session of the Council to address the impacts on shipping & seafarers in the Strait of Hormuz.