Commodities MacGruber

Commodities Investor. Very Long Oil and Coal.

60% Commodities, 20% Special Sits and 20% Short Garbage.

*Not Investment Advice*

Now kind of a Bitcoin douche!

[Commodities MacGruber @GoForGrubes2]

Have said this downturn (or whatever you want to call it) will essentially be a 'white collar recession'.

To date, layoffs have been almost entirely in WC workforce which is UNIQUE in 🇺🇸 History.

All previous slowdowns/recessions have started in BC workforce & bled into WC.

[Amanda Goodall @thejobchick]

Are you too expensive?
Are you too human?
👇

I used to say:
Don’t worry about ageism. (so many posts and videos on this) I helped 55+ land great jobs all the time.

I don’t say that anymore.

The last 18 months have been brutal. People with 15–25 years at one company? CUT.

I'll call it for what it is:
• They make too much
• They’re not AI-native
• They lead people... now replaced by dashboards

That’s the new layoff filter.

The stats are just as brutal:
- Avg job hunt at 55+? 26 weeks
- Avg pay cut? 11%
- Many never recover... forced into part-time “retirement”

HR’s seriously broken.
Recruiting? Mostly useless.

I’ve seen the best people erased like they never mattered.

If you’re not scared yet, you’re not paying attention.

[Commodities MacGruber @GoForGrubes2]

Good day to buy back some CC's if you're not HOMELESS after this disaster.

[Haralabos Voulgaris @haralabob]

In 1995 the richest man in the world was Bill Gates with a networth that fluctuated around 10-12B

in 2026 Two great men Michael Saylor and Tom Lee are sitting on unrealized losses of approximately 10-12B

What a time to be alive.

[QE Infinity @StealthQE4]

The bottom line here is that Trump doesn’t wanna look worse than Obama on the terms of a deal.

Ironically in the end Trump’s deal will look worse than Obama’s.

Just puke up the cash and get the Strait opened so we can all move on.

[Samuel Tombs @samueltombs]

More evidence of a building AI drag on payrolls in today’s report:

[Commodities MacGruber @GoForGrubes2]

@RyanSmitty197 I have a big closing in June & a bigger closing in July.

I could 100% port into Rocket and sleep like a baby.

[Commodities MacGruber @GoForGrubes2]

@AllVentured It's the weirdest combination of fraud, part-time jobs & govt transitions into the private sector.

New job creation is minimal & pitiful.

Fortunately, all this gaslighting is allowing me to exit a decent chunk of RE.

[Commodities MacGruber @GoForGrubes2]

I stopped writing about this but 100% know I'm right.

These people aren't going to file for UE

They won't show up in UE data sets

They probably have some severance

They probably have a low rate mtg

They won't become homeless

They WILL begin to be more cautious wrt to

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

Mass LAI offs: the tech industry has announced more than 123,000 cuts YTD, up more than 65% from the same period in 2025. These are the highest paying jobs in the US labor market.

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

UBS: "US Payrolls Beat May Not Reflect Genuine Reacceleration: The upside surprise in May payrolls (172k vs ~87k consensus/95k UBS) appears concentrated in a few sectors with clear calendar and seasonal tailwinds, rather than broad-based strength. The largest contributor was leisure & hospitality (+70k), far above its recent trend, consistent with UBS’s expectation that the timing of Memorial Day pulled hiring forward into May from June. Local government (+55k) was another key driver, likely reflecting smaller-than-usual seasonal education outflows and stronger non-education hiring, in line with UBS’s upside risks around state/local dynamics. Healthcare (+35k) and social assistance (+12k) provided steady baseline gains. Meanwhile, financial activities (-22k) detracted meaningfully. Putting it together, the beat looks largely explained by timing distortions (holiday effects), public-sector swings, and steady services hiring, rather than a genuine reacceleration in underlying labor demand — reinforcing expectations that some of this strength may unwind or revise lower in coming months."
"
:

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

Full-time jobs dropped 79K to 134.173MM, lowest since December 2024
Part-time jobs rose 266K to 28.679MM

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

Government and government-related sectors accounted for majority of job growth in May.

Local government +55K (biggest surge since March 2024)
Education and Health +40K

Add Leisure and Hospitality which was +70K, and that covers all gains

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

US Jobs Soar By 172K In May, Smashing Estimates In 4 Sigma Beat; Unemployment Rate Remains At 4.3% https://t.co/Hyi7MmB2d2

[Shams Charania @ShamsCharania]

President Donald Trump will attend the New York Knicks-San Antonio Spurs Game 3 of the NBA Finals at Madison Square Garden on Monday night.

[Commodities MacGruber @GoForGrubes2]

Personally spending

As long as the stock market keeps going up, they'll keep spending

If the stock market falls, they'll switch off the spending in a minute

Many will never come close to regaining their previous comp packages, if they work ever again

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

Mass LAI offs: the tech industry has announced more than 123,000 cuts YTD, up more than 65% from the same period in 2025. These are the highest paying jobs in the US labor market.

[Eric Balchunas @EricBalchunas]

SHOCKER: S&P 500 will NOT fast track SpaceX. So it will take AT LEAST a year, probably more. This is wild considering every other big boy index is 5-15 days. This could create significant return dispersion bt 'passive' indexes. Choose wisely.

[Commodities MacGruber @GoForGrubes2]

If negotiations are taking place, one of the Key 🇺🇸 sticking points will be Iran's nuclear capabilities.

2 reminders:
🇮🇱 claimed Thurs that Iran's nuclear program was NOW completely wiped out

British Intel chief said that Iran made credible statements (in 🇺🇸 talks) to give up

[Commodities MacGruber @GoForGrubes2]

Continue to feel that unfurling the 'Mission Accomplished' banner by EOM & limiting further strikes to 'retaliation only' is the only ST path to de-escalation.

Leveraging my oil profits into more $DHT $RKT & $NAMM

[Commodities MacGruber @GoForGrubes2]

Perfect setup to unfurl the 'Mission Accomplished' banner & exit NOW

[Commodities MacGruber @GoForGrubes2]

Haven't seen calls on Oil this elevated since Spring of '22.

FWIW, I thought Venezuela regime change was a LOCK.

Iran, which in some regimes might be considered 'contained' is not worth the financial blowback at all IMO.

We'll see 🤷‍♂️

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

*TRUMP: NO REASON TO GET IRAN NUCLEAR DUST, IT'S ENTOMBED

*TRUMP: NOT CONSIDERING COVERT OPERATION TO SEIZE IRAN URANIUM

*TRUMP: WE HAVE POWERFUL CAMERAS WATCHING IRAN'S URANIUM