Imagine investing in 100 companies in 1970.
99 go bankrupt. Only Walmart survives.
That one $1,650 investment would be worth over $72 million today.
The lesson? You don’t need to be right 100 times. Sometimes ONE extraordinary winner changes everything.
Who’s the next Walmart? 🚀
I invest my own capital—no team, no employees.
One lesson from past market cycles: don’t confuse a pullback with the end of a technological revolution.
Many think AI chips have peaked. I believe there’s still room to run across GPUs, memory and networking.
But valuations and timing matter.
If Reddit’s data isn’t valuable, why are AI companies fighting so hard to get it?
Google, OpenAI, Meta & Microsoft are spending hundreds of billions on AI. Paying a few hundred million for unique, real-time human data is a rounding error.
Every buyer wants to pay less. That doesn’t mean the asset is worth less.
$RDDT #RDDT
Google reportedly said it would rather go bankrupt than lose the AI race.
If that’s true, then ask yourself this:
Why are the biggest AI companies fighting so hard to get data for free if data isn’t valuable?
Google, OpenAI, Meta, Microsoft, and others are spending hundreds of billions of dollars on AI infrastructure. In that context, paying $200 million for high-quality data is almost meaningless.
If the data truly has little value, don’t pay for it.
But if it’s worthless…
• Why scrape it?
• Why negotiate licensing deals?
• Why fight lawsuits over it?
Every buyer wants to pay less. That doesn’t mean the asset is worth less.
AI ultimately runs on three things:
• Compute
• Talent
• Data
Compute can be bought.
Talent can be hired.
Unique, trusted, constantly updated human data is much harder to replace.
That’s why I think the market may be underestimating the long-term value of companies that own proprietary data.
The AI race isn’t just about who has the best models.
It’s also about who owns the information those models need to learn from.
The question isn’t whether Google wants to pay less.
The question is: how much is the data actually worth?
DON’T BECOME EXIT LIQUIDITY
Everyone says:
SpaceX = next Tesla
OpenAI = next Amazon
But there’s one problem.
Amazon IPO’d at around a $438M valuation. The upside was enormous.
SpaceX and OpenAI may eventually come public after years of private funding rounds at massive valuations.
Early investors and employees could already be sitting on life-changing gains.
At some point, paper wealth wants liquidity.
Remember Rivian.
“Next Tesla.”
Massive hype.
Huge valuation.
Then reality arrived.
Ask yourself:
Are you investing in the next 20x opportunity…
or buying someone else’s 100x exit?
During euphoric cycles, retail often shows up late.
Not every IPO is Amazon in 1997.
Watch valuation.
Watch incentives.
Watch who needs liquidity.
The story matters.
The price matters more.
A couple of factual notes: SpaceX and OpenAI IPO timing/structure is still uncertain, and claims like “exact $111K top” can hurt credibility if challenged. Stronger posts often ask a hard question instead of making a guaranteed prediction.