goldilocked

semis | physical AI | energy | shitposting

[goldilocked @goldilock3din]

@workerlucky777 2x on a very small base is not inflection, thats why they say themselves "significant acceleration" is coming in calendar year 2028 (FY29) with custom silicon likely approaching 40-50% of total revenues

[goldilocked @goldilock3din]

im sorry Jensen but $MRVL rly doesnt look like "the next trillion dollar company", FY28 revenue only 5% above consensus and custom XPU revenue wont inflect till 2028! How is that competitive with Broadcom, Asian players and in house programs ?

[goldilocked @goldilock3din]

@EidolonResearch "repeatedly" - I literally never mentioned it before. You on the other hand are commenting under every $sive bear post, pls dont marry your bags

[goldilocked @goldilock3din]

$SIVE is rly $RMBS of optics, you can always count on them to disappoint you

[goldilocked @goldilock3din]

@Stefano47271344 "accelerate significantly in fiscal 2029", so CY28. Doubling xpu reve in CY27 from 2B is not actual inflection

[goldilocked @goldilock3din]

@EidolonResearch yes you can actually talk about stocks you dont own, I know this is absolutely crazy

[goldilocked @goldilock3din]

@EidolonResearch i dont have sivers im just hating for the love of the game 😅

[goldilocked @goldilock3din]

@Franny8 MAYBE ant S1 could save it

[goldilocked @goldilock3din]

Other than RSI and/or big medical breakthrough thanks to AI, what can save the AI trade short/medium term ? Its pretty clear ramped hardware demand on a 1-2-3year horizon no longer matters. New models that improve coding benchmarks by 5% no longer matter.

At this point Im not sure anthropics S1 with them being profitable and having good economics can even change the paradigm.

[goldilocked @goldilock3din]

based on FY2028 rev guide $nvda is trading around 14x PE for CY27

[goldilocked @goldilock3din]

$NVDA just guided for 70% revenue growth in FY 2028 vs 45% consensus, how is this not sending harder?? Unserious market

[goldilocked @goldilock3din]

@degentradingLSD almost certainly glm

[goldilocked @goldilock3din]

I need frame by frame analysis of this Bessent's interview ASAP from @dampedspring @fejau_inc and @conksresearch

[goldilocked @goldilock3din]

Looking at moderna price action today its clear ppl are YEARNING for some optimistic "wagmi" stories instead of doom porn. I better hope Dario and Sam are going ALL IN on bioscience and materials research - next leg of AI trade is when we start seeing AI x some *tangible* scientific breakthroughs like new medicine (not abstract math proofs or increased coding productivity).

This is obviously not only good for the labs, but also
1) Trump (political victory + justified spending on AI and datacenters which are driving economy rn) and
2) big tech, semis and stock market (no more backlash for capex and likely some extra public funding)

[goldilocked @goldilock3din]

Dario should have paid $MRNA 10B to include "AI" in their statement (even if ai was only used to format some rando document), unironically it would be the paradigm shift for AI trade and public perception of this tech

[goldilocked @goldilock3din]

just as expected openai leaked new numbers that prove reacceleration after sol release - based on Friar words current ARR should be around 45B basically matching public trackers (while Ant missed bigly). Q3 m/m growth should be around 20% vs 14% for Anthropic

[goldilocked @goldilock3din]

WSJ hit piece on openai would be much more juicy if they included post sol/codex numbers, everyone knew they were getting absolutely lapped by ant till june, now the momentum seemed to have switched.

oai probably intentionally leaks more recent numbers coz otherwise this frankly looks awful (zitron is alrdy going crazy)

[goldilocked @goldilock3din]

@negligible_cap its from before sol and enterprise push, they reaccelerated significantly since then

[goldilocked @goldilock3din]

WSJ hit piece on openai would be much more juicy if they included post sol/codex numbers, everyone knew they were getting absolutely lapped by ant till june, now the momentum seemed to have switched.

oai probably intentionally leaks more recent numbers coz otherwise this frankly looks awful (zitron is alrdy going crazy)

[goldilocked @goldilock3din]

uno reverse

[goldilocked @goldilock3din]

we had exactly 3 days of stuff going up together, now we're back to semis vs everything else paradigm. Hard to see indices making a decisive move here in whatever direction

[goldilocked @goldilock3din]

Anthropic ARR is by far the biggest story in the market rn - 65B at the end of July was a disappointment for many (all public trackers were 10-20% higher) and its hard to imagine how they reaccelerate growth *without* some big paradigm change (last one being agentic workflows).

IF semis do sell off on that narrative, I wonder if hypers get the sympathy bid with software like last time - frontier labs growth rates slowing down could be perceived as bearish overall compute (frontier and commoditized) as opposed to open/commoditized compute simply taking over to fill the gaps and more (jevons paradox etc). If thats the narrative, capex story gets punished even more and hypers suffer with semis.