Gonzalo Varela

Trade and macro economist, policy-researcher, commentator, and failed squash star in Manila. Views expressed are mine, not my employer's.

[Gonzalo Varela @gonwei]

Great new paper on #trade, #structuraltransformation and #spillovers in Brazil.

[Mateo Hoyos @mathoyos]

Enough with the bleak local politics for a minute. Very excited to share that pre-proofs are out for our JDE article, “Local and Spillover Effects of Trade on Structural Transformation: Evidence from Brazil,” with @JosecoronadoAr and @GuilhermeKlei11. Thread below. 1/9

[VoxEU @voxeu]

Global trade linkages and the cross-country distribution of the gains from AI
@f_filippucci, @P_N_Gal, Katharina Laengle, Matthias Schief @oecdeconomy, Muhammed A. Yıldırım @Harvard @HarvardEcon @BrownUniversity @kocuniversity
https://t.co/DKbylTvEA6

[Jasper Emmanuel Y. Arcalas @jearcalas]

A THREAD: By now, ube means multiple things: the next Matcha, the rising export star, global craze, among others.

@PhilippineStar published a four-part special report that explores and tackles the status of the country's ube industry beyond the buzzwords and headlines.

[IMF @IMFNews]

The gap between countries running large trade surpluses and those running large deficits is growing. Sound domestic policies, not trade barriers, remain the path to durable rebalancing. See our blog for more. https://t.co/UfYUGEjUVy

[World Bank Group @WorldBankGroup]

Surging AI-related exports and investment were a bright spot in the East Asia and Pacific region in 2025, especially in Malaysia, Thailand, and Viet Nam.

Learn what it will take for the region to unlock AI’s full potential: https://t.co/hHXePLDLtv #EAPUpdate

[World Bank Group @WorldBankGroup]

Energy is not just infrastructure.

When we power a home, a business, or a hospital, we aren't just providing electricity—we are powering growth.

Learn how #Mission300 is creating jobs & opportunities for millions across Sub-Saharan Africa: https://t.co/I8gUL6IYGB #PoweringAfrica

[Gonzalo Varela @gonwei]

The growth in the importance of #digital infra & services investment is staggering.

[World Bank Group @WorldBankGroup]

Where is global investment heading?

See what the data reveal about digital innovation and the energy transition. https://t.co/mQ0ulYNX4j

[Gonzalo Varela @gonwei]

In an environment of dwindling public resources and mounting uncertainty, the central question is how to protect the public investments that promote growth and jobs. https://t.co/hRuicgbpEe via @worldbank

[Trade Talks Podcast @Trade__Talks]

NEW EPISODE: While Chinese exports of electric vehicles to Europe flood the headlines, developing countries suffer silently from another problem caused by China's trade. This week, @arvindsubraman joins to explain.

https://t.co/HwaOytfdy4

[Gonzalo Varela @gonwei]

Great off-cycle chart (@BaldwinRE didn't post it as a factful Friday ;-)). On this topic, also worth listening to @arvindsubraman with @ChadBown @Trade__Talks

https://t.co/zN2JU82Fi6

[Richard Baldwin @BaldwinRE]

Here are the China dominance shares by sector 🔗 https://t.co/W15JUzGa4N

[Richard Baldwin @BaldwinRE]

Here are the China dominance shares by sector 🔗 https://t.co/W15JUzGa4N

[Richard Baldwin @BaldwinRE]

Icymi

[Valeria Csukasi @ValeCSU]

Hoy podemos confirmar que la cuota de arroz otorgada por la UE al MERCOSUR para todo este año (6.667 toneladas) se acabó. Y Uruguay se quedó con el 63% del total. Uruguay no se duerme; y menos se duerme su sector productivo @compresidencia @CancilleriaUy @mef_Uruguay @FreddyLago

[Gonzalo Varela @gonwei]

. @JonathanKarver

[The Review of Economics and Statistics (REStat) @restatjournal]

Tax evasion shows stronger links to peer behavior and incentives than to honesty. Just Accepted new paper by Marcelo Bergolo, Martin Leites, Ricardo Perez-Truglia @pereztruglia and Matías Strehl-Pessina @Mati_strehl https://t.co/PxQwu3sCpm

[METR @METR_Evals]

We surveyed 349 technical researchers, engineers, and managers (in February–April 2026) about how they use AI tools at work.

On average, participants self-report that AI use made their work 1.6–2.1x more valuable, and that this multiplier will grow over time.

[Gonzalo Varela @gonwei]

More quality evidence to add to the #industrialpolicy debate. #Korea

[The Review of Economics and Statistics (REStat) @restatjournal]

Just Accepted new paper, “Industrialization and the Big Push: Theory and Evidence from South Korea” by Jaedo Choi and Younghun Shim https://t.co/9oPPWrNFei

[Gonzalo Varela @gonwei]

Thought provoking on #AI, #jobs and the future.

https://t.co/fBIzUTghi6

[Cathy Rose Garcia @cathyrosegarcia]

World Bank division director for Philippines Zafer Mustafaoglu talks about the Philippines as ASEAN’s next economic engine at the #BusinessWorldEconomicForum @bworldph

[NBER @nberpubs]

Growth in data centers—driven in part by rising AI demand—boosts local employment, wages, income, and house prices, while also increasing electricity prices, from Fernando E. Alvarez, @dargente05, Joyce Chow, and @dianavanpatten https://t.co/d6VbekeaPH

[Luis Garicano 🇪🇺🇺🇦 @lugaricano]

I am presenting in "preview mode" today for the first time Messy Jobs, in the Alumni Weekend of @LSEPublicPolicy. I profit from the opportunity to show you the cover by James Clarke!

We are working hard towards a June 15th publication date. Hopefully we shall make it!