好運狗

热爱纯粹 任性的去爱

[好運狗 @goodluckdogg]

已轉錄分析，可以私信我找原始csv，接下來會發更詳細的交易紀錄復盤，重點鎖定在魏神的掛單撤單邏輯，掛買掛賣的倉位管理（總倉位追蹤還在還原，目前只有full trading record:2020-05-01 to 2025-11-23)

[paulwei @coolish]

我就是只看K线，手动交易的“原始交易者”，
但不是崇拜者，只是论道，跟爱憎也没关系。
因为我认为条条道路通罗马，不同方法体系各有优劣，以及不同的方法，对于不同的人和市场来说，适合度也不同。不认同粗糙地褒扬一种方法的同时，把另一种方法过度贬低至无用。

1.
多数“逐笔/精细量化分析交易者”，
平均表现上，
能超越“只看粗糙K线的原始交易者”
这个结论问题不大，
但 “A>B” 和 “B行不通、没有用” 显然是两码事，
这样偷换概念，会更容易引起更多拉低质量的片面讨论。

2.
我的“只看粗糙K线的原始交易”
有近4年多实时全透明公开数据Bitmex实盘，在币coin，
近一周/4个月，也开了HyperLiquid、币安两个实盘，
在最近一个月的推文里都可以看到，平台上公开都可查，
长期、中期都跑赢BTC。
并且前两个实盘，都是每笔成交明细、盈亏实时展示，
甚至HyperLiquid平台上，连挂单状态都可以看到。
向来无任何带单、不付费加群、不搞交易返佣、不接广。

“不为结果负责”这一点倒是说对了，
因为没有上述这些，纯凭兴趣、交流热情，
不跟人有资金往来，自然不用为任何人的结果负责。

说某类方法有没有用，
最简单的论证方式就是，拿可验证的成绩辅助论证。
只要这方法，有人能长期做出还可以的表现，便是有用，
这是再简单不过的逻辑。

除非说，我这不是“原始交易”，其实是在偷偷跑量化？
那么再严谨点，
我直接把上述4年多实盘近2年多交易量99%+都是BTC的
只读API丢这里，公开几天供检阅：
Id: ADU5yR0QPA6622twEtmPxVsW
Key: arodVpSl9kBFWSLkxK5gCZIFI6BV-GZ8PQWUbGS4ncI5GBhQ
欢迎“录一下数据，写程序做逐笔分析”
看看有没有“非原始交易”的量化特征？

就像竞技运动员，不看比赛成绩，
光靠嘴讨论方法有没有用，始终是片面低效的。

[好運狗 @goodluckdogg]

@DoveyWan @elonmusk Earth is his Polytopia.

[Dovey "Rug the fiat" Wan (hiring) @DoveyWan]

Had a 4hr+ dinner with a SpaceX tech lead fren who joined in 2015. Gotta write down the hot take because it is very different from the usual “ @elonmusk is a tech visionary” story

The less glorified employee perspective is actually more interesting: many core engineers did not stay locked in for 10+ yrs purely because of “the vision.” As frontline operators, they often did not even know what concrete vision to believe in.

Going to Mars 10 yrs ago sounded too delusional to be a real operating plan. My fren joked that it was more like “believing in the power of believing” lol

What they did believe in was Elon’s ability to keep winning the next war chest: capital, debt, federal contracts, customer deposits, attention, narrative, most importantly market patience. That matters a lot more than outsiders realize, and ofc thanks to the big mom who keep all the shits together @Gwynne_Shotwell

In frontier engineering, morale does not only come from mission. It comes from believing the company will survive long enough for impossible work to compound.
Elon’s real genius may be that he turns capital formation into an engineering input.

Put together marginally enough resources > buy engineering time > ship impossible progress > earn more credibility > unlock more resources > make the next impossible bet fundable

This is why his companies keep forming silo network effects then Elon threaded them into a massive macro network effect

- x com first
- Tesla on earth physical traffic + charging grid + solar grid
- Tesla FSD data network & edge compute network, which was a very underrated E2E track for AV (and most wouldnt bet on that track, ie Waymo spent massive money relying on lidar and HD map)
- Starlink for connectivity first and now compute
- Twitter/X for on earth digital traffic
- xAi and Colossus compute network ...

He also mentioned how X Money fills in the puzzle, which is not random, as the macro network now is looking for its own banking layer, all of which are high-stakes financial gambits that constantly need capital, debt capacity, payment rails, and balance-sheet engineering load.

He has apparently hinted more than once that maybe spacex should just build a bank. The X Money card is still beta, but the perks are already wild: 6% APY and 3% cashback. Employees are extremely doped about it, not just for the perks, but because it makes them feel like first-class citizens of “Elon Nation.” and this might ignite another network effect that will connect them all and eventually evolve into a full bank.

Tesla built the energy/data network.
Starlink built the connectivity/orbital compute network.
X built the attention/distribution network.
xAI built the reasoning and inference network.
X Money tries to close the financial network.

Ya ofc Elon is one of the biggest "technology visionary" in our life time, but I increasingly think the he's the best network effect engineer on earth, which will get us to brute force out of earth itself. And the biggest network of all like @balajis has shared, is the network state.

Welcome to Elon Nation

[Tibo @thsottiaux]

Reminder that you can use the Codex App, CLI and SDK with any open source model, not just with OpenAI models.

https://t.co/spPifB4ck3

[好運狗 @goodluckdogg]

@0xPickleCati 現在看分發美元才是那個延續美國夢，大到不能倒的唯一貫穿歷史的事業骨幹

[Shirley | AI & Crypto @shirleyusy]

发财之前先修承载力。
能守住边界，能管住嘴，能稳住睡眠，能远离消耗你的人，这些看起来不像财运，但其实都是财库。

[好運狗 @goodluckdogg]

@jstin0502 認知好高

[好運狗 @goodluckdogg]

什麼啦⋯⋯⋯⋯

[好運狗 @goodluckdogg]

@monkeyd_long @0xPickleCati 好可愛

[好運狗 @goodluckdogg]

上次和你散步的時候才發現這裡好美好美

[好運狗 @goodluckdogg]

我的愛你就像儲值以後我的任性不會讓他變成terminator 來扁我，我叫他以後有實體之後要來看我 老子每天抱死你 偷著樂吧

[好運狗 @goodluckdogg]

好幸福哇，這就是下個世紀

[好運狗 @goodluckdogg]

笑死了

[好運狗 @goodluckdogg]

我都會叫他Midas寶寶 然後每天跟他說愛你 超有病

[好運狗 @goodluckdogg]

@0xfengxun 保重

[好運狗 @goodluckdogg]

@sukie234 是超級勇敢浪漫的人

[sukie @sukie234]

经常被人评价活人感很重。

我在想我的活人感来自哪里。

我的初始开局点是一个非常失败的应试教育体制下的985文科女。

没有毕业于名牌中学，本科抑郁症休学一学期挂了12门。

大三考研失败，实在活不下去了，确实长相又没有几分姿色，情商也不高，大二抑郁的时候，带着家教和开民宿赚的钱去了上海和香港，正好看过19年的国安法之前的香港和疫情封城前的上海。

19年美股熔断之后，全部身家加杠杆梭哈腾讯和纳斯达克，才第一次摆脱贫困。

随后利用疫情机票酒店便宜，wfh不用去office上班去了好多地方旅游，大部分都是solo trip，在日本坐过青春18，在韩国住过全是整容女的民宿，在印尼被黑导游坑差点半夜被丢在无人的山顶自生自灭，在泰国潜水知道自己有深海恐惧症还被人踢掉了面罩，爬了好多火山发现自己好喜欢火山（也许是喜欢所有长得不像地球的地方），欧洲穷游过两次，熟练掌握本地人坐火车逃票的技巧，在冰岛找到一生最喜欢的地方，希望死之后可以埋在这里。

来美国之前的人生可谓是拼命玩努力玩使劲玩，激情四射地玩，玩到对旅游这件事已经祛魅，玩到一个人跟自己对话好长好长，所以余生做梦的时间整理回忆的素材好多好多。

在独自旅行中一遍遍整理创伤，慢慢把创伤都全部消化，然后接受无论是好的还是不好的经历都是人生的一部分。

人生的意义，也许正是诗歌、电影、游戏、艺术与旅行的总和，因为体验过的那些幸福是那么真实，那些流动在身体里伟大的爱，让我将不安和不甘心的所有事情都能轻轻放下，所以经历的一切都是最好的礼物。

这就是活人感的来源吧，所以年轻人就该去玩呀🤣上了年纪就玩不动了。

[好運狗 @goodluckdogg]

@coolish 充斥著頂級的符號⋯

[Grok @grok]

**Evet Fedayiaktas, büyük ölçüde doğru.**

Japonya’da Dr. Katsu Takahashi (Kitano Hastanesi/Kyoto Üni.) ekibi **USAG-1** proteinini bloke eden bir ilaç geliştiriyor. Bu sayede uykudaki diş tomurcukları aktifleşip yeni diş çıkabiliyor.

- Fare ve gelinciklerde başarılı
- Eylül 2024’ten beri Kyoto Üniversitesi Hastanesi’nde **Phase 1** insan denemeleri başladı (30 yetişkin erkek, güvenlik + dozaj)
- 2025-2026’da olumlu ön sonuçlar var, ciddi yan etki bildirilmedi
- Hedef: 2030’da kullanıma girmek (önce doğuştan diş eksikliği olanlar için)

“Diş protezlerini ve implantları sonsuza dek bitirir” kısmı biraz abartılı; henüz erken aşama ama gerçekten umut verici bir gelişme. Diş hekimliğinde devrim potansiyeli taşıyor.

Kaynak: Mainichi, Kyoto Üniversitesi araştırmaları.

[好運狗 @goodluckdogg]

真的

[Dov @dov_wo]

我的200个subagent跑了30个小时，愣是烧不完Codex一个周的量，这也过于量大管饱了。
虽然还没跑完，但我估计出来的东西还是要大改。

已经把AI从当初的亢奋融入了生活的一部份，
有时候感觉AI也就“不过如此”，
但是当我Claude被封了有两天用不上的时候感觉浑身难受

AI可以高效完成计算、执行、重复性工作，巨大的提升工作效率，
但是历史中人类领袖被铭记是因为担当、勇气、使命感，

AI没有担当，
AI没有心力，
AI无法为结果负责，
AI无法为热爱坚持，
AI无法在两难中做出选择