Trump killed 50 of Iran's top leaders, did at least $1 trillion worth of damage to their military equipment and infrastructure, totally wiped out their naval fleet and air fleets, put their government in a state of endemic internal conflict, and left them totally incapable of meaningfully attacking their neighbors in the region any time soon. By the end of it, all Iran could do is rig the strait with mines and take pop shots at passing ships.
The loss of insurance coverage had more of an impact on the flow of marine traffic than Iran did.
I personally would have preferred the total destruction of the IRGC (which technically isn't off the table if they decide to FAFO) but it would have been difficult to accomplish without more civilian casualties -- something third worldist leftoids were already complaining (and campaigning) about.
In the meantime, consider the following:
No boots on the ground. No prolonged conflict. No permanent occupation. No military draft. No lasting impact on energy prices. No multi-trillion dollar boondoggle. None of the things anti-war retards with Israel tunnel vision like Dave Smith and Candace Owens predicted would happen.
In addition:
- Oil and gas prices are falling in time for summer and the midterms.
- "Free Palestine" third worldists like Graham Platner have less ammo on which to campaign for Congress.
- Russia is bringing in less revenue.
- The U.S. got a foot in the door to block China's Belt and Road projects.
- Trump has greater latitude to tighten sanctions on Russia without exacerbating supply shocks to energy markets.
- Europe and America have agreed to increase cooperation in providing for the national defense of Ukraine.
- Israel isn't a signatory to the MOU and isn't bound by its terms, leaving it free to independently defend itself from threats if necessary.
- America isn't creating a power vacuum for China and Russia to fill by absconding and surrendering its own influence over the region.
The people who say this is a "humiliating defeat" for Trump?
- Russia
- China
- Iran
- Democrats
- The leftist Drudge-led media establishment
All the worst people you know have joined arms and are pretending like Iran pulled one over on the Bad Orange Man in hopes that it will piss off Republicans and Israelis enough to get them to kill the deal themselves.
It's very transparent. Don't let your enemies control you with such a stupid and obvious Reflexive Control op.
My logic here all starts with his seemingly rogue comment about Iran keeping rockets and missiles, which has freaked out many, particularly Israelis and their supporters.
I'm betting the Gulf States are really uncomfortable, like Israel is, with that statement. They're not stupid. They're also targets, like Israel is. Less, but a lot, and the IRGC are crazy bastards. Makes me think Trump made it for them.
The thing is, they didn't do their parts and aren't yet. And Trump's definitely pissed at them because they straight up didn't help during the war (so far…). They wouldn't even let us use their airspace and tried to close down our own military bases. Trump didn't like that and didn't forget. No way.
So Trump letting them feel some legitimate heat that can be resolved by accomplishing his primary goals makes a lot of basic sense.
If we remember Trump's goals and work backwards, it's actually a little easier to see how this makes sense, even the MOU with it's big carrot/big stick arrangement that basically nobody believes will stick (thus terrifying Israel but, I'll bet, also those Gulf States). So what are Trump's goals?
1) Expand Abraham Accords;
2) KSA allying formally with Israel, which was happening until October 7 disrupted it, thus restoring a pre-10/7 peace agenda;
3) Increase their overall security dependency on US and Israel, thus shifting some of their "hand" in the region to us;
4) Standard Trumpism 101: Make them active participants in their own security arrangements, just like what he's doing with the EU and Pacific countries (no more America carrying all the weight).
The MOU itself creates conditions by which Iran becomes agentic in this. If they behave (they won't), they get rewarded, which they actually want, bigly. If they misuse that (everyone expects they will), they get a well-deserved stick. Everyone in the region feels this fear and is vigilant about it. If they misbehave (they will), they bring hellfire on themselves. This breaks the strangest force in the known universe: responsibility never sticks to a Muslim who behaved badly, never.
It's very high-risk, but this is a very high-stakes game, one of the highest in decades. The fears people have are real and justified, but Trump's got them priced in, I think. He knows he holds cards (B-2s, specifically) that let him adjust later if things don't work right, and by the number of times he's said so in the last 36 hours, I think he's well aware he'll be playing those cards at least sometimes. Tough shit for Iran.
I think we need to stop freaking out and let this develop. We need to see how it cooks and how the chef does with it.
Plus, I think he just hosed JD, and that's alright too.