gotha07

6 months ago

First Cybercab off the production line at Giga Texas

35K

45M

gotha07 retweeted

Shay Boloor

@StockSavvyShay

over 1 year ago

WHAT I'M ACTUALLY DOING AFTER LIBERATION DAY Markets aren’t reacting to fundamentals right now -- they’re reacting to the idea that fundamentals might suddenly become unknowable. That’s what happens when a structural surprise like “Liberation Day” drops. This isn’t your typical inflation-driven pullback. It’s a psychological shock to the system. The numbers don’t even matter as much as the fact that no one knows what to believe anymore. And when confidence breaks, capital freezes. What Trump rolled out from the Rose Garden wasn’t just another tariff tweak -- it was a total rewrite of how the U.S. engages with global trade. A convoluted recalculation of trade deficits disguised as reciprocal tariffs, announced with enough pomp and permanence that it’s hard to dismiss as mere negotiation. There’s been months of planning. Treasury Secretary Bessent and Cantor’s Lutnick were both involved. This was premeditated. And markets are just starting to realize that what seemed like noise may actually be policy. The immediate response? Risk is being repriced -- hard -- especially in $QQQ, $SMH and global supply chain plays. We’re seeing it in the way tech are unraveling not just on volume, but on velocity. This isn’t about inflation readings or jobs data. It’s about companies -- and investors -- losing their ability to plan. Because what do you do when your input costs could spike 20% overnight? You pause. You freeze capex. You delay hiring. You soften guidance. And you prepare for a version of the world that’s structurally different from the one you were modeling 24 hours ago. That’s exactly what’s happening. Earnings expectations are being walked back not because the business has broken, but because visibility has. Especially for high-multiple names -- SaaS, semis, adtech -- where future growth assumptions are the core of the valuation, this kind of uncertainty is toxic. These aren’t companies missing earnings because demand fell off a cliff. They’re companies getting punished because the forecast range just blew out to infinity. And in this market, uncertainty is indistinguishable from failure. But this also creates one of the most asymmetric opportunity sets we’ve seen since 2020. Because when stocks are selling off not on broken fundamentals, but on narrative deterioration -- all it takes is a stabilization in that narrative to trigger a powerful re-rate. The bar for Q1 earnings is now as low as it’s been in a decade. If companies like $NVDA, $PLTR, $META & $GOOGL simply guide in-line -- not raise, not blow out expectations, just hold the line -- we could see violent upside moves in names that have been oversold purely on fear. That’s what the market’s forgetting right now: narratives flip. Fast. One speech from Treasury. One shift in rhetoric from USTR. One surprise resilience in earnings -- and suddenly this “permanent” structural shift looks like a temporary shock. And the bid comes back in hard. But that’s not the base case I'm betting on. The smarter play is to assume this volatility stays. That the tariffs -- or at least a significant portion of them -- are real. Trump sees trade deficits as theft. He’s said it for years. And now he has the mechanism to generate external revenue for tax cuts while branding it as “economic fairness.” That’s a powerful combination -- and it’s why we think this doesn’t get reversed anytime soon. So how do you position in that world? You don’t overleverage. You don’t chase dead cat bounces. You don’t pretend this is a V-shaped recovery. What you do is wait for pricing dislocations in structurally advantaged businesses with massive moats -- the companies that don’t just survive volatility, but benefit from it. Think vertically integrated infrastructure plays in early secular growth themes. Think AI-first enterprise platforms. Think new age of defense names. Names like $PLTR, $NET, $AXON, $AMZN, $SNOW, $CRWD aren’t suddenly bad businesses because of a tariff chart. In fact, they may be the infrastructure that helps global enterprises navigate this new era. And yet, they’re getting sold like cyclicals. That’s where the spread opens up between sentiment and execution. And that’s the spread that, historically, closes quickly and violently once conviction returns. Right now, no one has conviction. Everyone’s reacting. That’s why you'll start seeing margin calls, not fundamental calls. That’s why we’re seeing selling across sectors -- not because they’re all affected equally, but because everyone is hedging against what they don’t understand. And that’s what makes this moment so important: uncertainty itself has become the variable. Not interest rates. Not CPI. But the inability to forecast anything with precision. That’s the rare kind of environment where long-term investors can start legging into world-class names at 40% discounts without needing perfect timing. Because once the fog lifts, even just slightly, those multiples expand fast. Sentiment heals fast. And the next leg up can happen before most people have even realized the bottom is in. This isn’t about calling the exact low. It’s about identifying the inflection point where narrative becomes so dislocated from business reality that price no longer reflects risk -- it reflects fear. And fear, unlike broken fundamentals, doesn’t last forever. So while the headlines scream “SELL EVERYTHING” and the market starts pricing in structural recession scenarios, what I see is something very different. I see a market that has already front-loaded the pain -- before the actual damage shows up. And in my experience, that’s how bottoms form. Not when everything feels calm -- but when everything feels unhinged, and yet the businesses are still standing. Because this is a marathon. Not a sprint. You don’t get paid for timing every move. You get paid for staying solvent, staying patient, and buying when others are too shaken to see straight. Volatility is the cost of being early. But in secular revolutions -- like AI, space, digital infrastructure, and computing -- being early is everything. So stay alert. Stay focused. Trade around the edges if you must. But don’t let the chaos scare you out of structural conviction. If you’ve done the work, this is when it matters most. Because when the dust settles, this won’t be remembered as the day the market broke. It’ll be remembered as the day the market reset. And the winners are already being marked down.

StockSavvyShay's tweet photo. WHAT I'M ACTUALLY DOING AFTER LIBERATION DAY

Markets aren’t reacting to fundamentals right now -- they’re reacting to the idea that fundamentals might suddenly become unknowable. That’s what happens when a structural surprise like “Liberation Day” drops. This isn’t your typical inflation-driven pullback. It’s a psychological shock to the system. The numbers don’t even matter as much as the fact that no one knows what to believe anymore.

And when confidence breaks, capital freezes.

What Trump rolled out from the Rose Garden wasn’t just another tariff tweak -- it was a total rewrite of how the U.S. engages with global trade. A convoluted recalculation of trade deficits disguised as reciprocal tariffs, announced with enough pomp and permanence that it’s hard to dismiss as mere negotiation. There’s been months of planning. Treasury Secretary Bessent and Cantor’s Lutnick were both involved. This was premeditated. And markets are just starting to realize that what seemed like noise may actually be policy.

The immediate response? Risk is being repriced -- hard -- especially in $QQQ, $SMH and global supply chain plays. We’re seeing it in the way tech are unraveling not just on volume, but on velocity. This isn’t about inflation readings or jobs data. It’s about companies -- and investors -- losing their ability to plan.

Because what do you do when your input costs could spike 20% overnight? You pause. You freeze capex. You delay hiring. You soften guidance. And you prepare for a version of the world that’s structurally different from the one you were modeling 24 hours ago. That’s exactly what’s happening. Earnings expectations are being walked back not because the business has broken, but because visibility has.

Especially for high-multiple names -- SaaS, semis, adtech -- where future growth assumptions are the core of the valuation, this kind of uncertainty is toxic. These aren’t companies missing earnings because demand fell off a cliff. They’re companies getting punished because the forecast range just blew out to infinity. And in this market, uncertainty is indistinguishable from failure.

But this also creates one of the most asymmetric opportunity sets we’ve seen since 2020.

Because when stocks are selling off not on broken fundamentals, but on narrative deterioration -- all it takes is a stabilization in that narrative to trigger a powerful re-rate. The bar for Q1 earnings is now as low as it’s been in a decade. If companies like $NVDA, $PLTR, $META & $GOOGL simply guide in-line -- not raise, not blow out expectations, just hold the line -- we could see violent upside moves in names that have been oversold purely on fear.

That’s what the market’s forgetting right now: narratives flip. Fast. One speech from Treasury. One shift in rhetoric from USTR. One surprise resilience in earnings -- and suddenly this “permanent” structural shift looks like a temporary shock. And the bid comes back in hard.

But that’s not the base case I'm betting on. The smarter play is to assume this volatility stays. That the tariffs -- or at least a significant portion of them -- are real. Trump sees trade deficits as theft. He’s said it for years. And now he has the mechanism to generate external revenue for tax cuts while branding it as “economic fairness.” That’s a powerful combination -- and it’s why we think this doesn’t get reversed anytime soon.

So how do you position in that world?

You don’t overleverage. You don’t chase dead cat bounces. You don’t pretend this is a V-shaped recovery. What you do is wait for pricing dislocations in structurally advantaged businesses with massive moats -- the companies that don’t just survive volatility, but benefit from it. Think vertically integrated infrastructure plays in early secular growth themes. Think AI-first enterprise platforms. Think new age of defense names.

Names like $PLTR, $NET, $AXON, $AMZN, $SNOW, $CRWD aren’t suddenly bad businesses because of a tariff chart. In fact, they may be the infrastructure that helps global enterprises navigate this new era. And yet, they’re getting sold like cyclicals. That’s where the spread opens up between sentiment and execution. And that’s the spread that, historically, closes quickly and violently once conviction returns.

Right now, no one has conviction. Everyone’s reacting. That’s why you'll start seeing margin calls, not fundamental calls. That’s why we’re seeing selling across sectors -- not because they’re all affected equally, but because everyone is hedging against what they don’t understand.

And that’s what makes this moment so important: uncertainty itself has become the variable. Not interest rates. Not CPI. But the inability to forecast anything with precision. That’s the rare kind of environment where long-term investors can start legging into world-class names at 40% discounts without needing perfect timing. Because once the fog lifts, even just slightly, those multiples expand fast. Sentiment heals fast. And the next leg up can happen before most people have even realized the bottom is in.

This isn’t about calling the exact low. It’s about identifying the inflection point where narrative becomes so dislocated from business reality that price no longer reflects risk -- it reflects fear.

And fear, unlike broken fundamentals, doesn’t last forever.

So while the headlines scream “SELL EVERYTHING” and the market starts pricing in structural recession scenarios, what I see is something very different. I see a market that has already front-loaded the pain -- before the actual damage shows up. And in my experience, that’s how bottoms form. Not when everything feels calm -- but when everything feels unhinged, and yet the businesses are still standing.

Because this is a marathon. Not a sprint. You don’t get paid for timing every move. You get paid for staying solvent, staying patient, and buying when others are too shaken to see straight. Volatility is the cost of being early. But in secular revolutions -- like AI, space, digital infrastructure, and computing -- being early is everything.

So stay alert. Stay focused. Trade around the edges if you must. But don’t let the chaos scare you out of structural conviction. If you’ve done the work, this is when it matters most.

Because when the dust settles, this won’t be remembered as the day the market broke. It’ll be remembered as the day the market reset.

And the winners are already being marked down.

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over 1 year ago

@julianpetroulas Crazy 🤪

184

#bitcoin, civil engineer, soon marathoner.

over 1 year ago

@FrenchCowboy_ @M6 @M6plusofficiel Il n’y a pas que des influenceurs avec 500k abonnés, viser de 5 à 30k on vous répondra :)

Who to follow

dzk

@vendingk00hii

over 1 year ago

@JohnAlden47 @YoannXIX @758million @julianpetroulas Haha you are so jealous, if you had followed every advise he is giving, you would be up 2 to 10x on a few stocks. He is sharing his thoughts, he isn’t taking any money from people. Have a good day :)

gotha07 retweeted

over 1 year ago

With a major highway in the way, we needed a faster & safer way to connect production with our end of line shop & outbound lot So we teamed up with @boringcompany to bore a 1,355 ft tunnel in just 9 weeks – enabling a much more efficient route for @cybertruck

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gotha07 retweeted

over 1 year ago

25K

over 1 year ago

@julianpetroulas I’m in.

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over 1 year ago

@dcb167 👌

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gotha07 retweeted

Sawyer Merritt

@SawyerMerritt

almost 2 years ago

NEWS: Tesla has just released a new video of its Cybercab, and teased ride hailing a bit.

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gotha07 retweeted

almost 2 years ago

Q3 2024 Shareholder Update → https://t.co/fvAaI97WoA — Highlights - Produced our 7 millionth vehicle at Fremont factory! - Preparations for new vehicles remain underway (including more affordable models), which we'll begin launching in the first half of 2025 - Record gross margin for @teslaenergy - COGS (cost of goods sold) per vehicle came down to lowest level ever – key to enabling affordability Vehicle US @tesla_na - Refreshed Model 3 ramp continued successfully - @cybertruck production increased sequentially & achieved a positive gross margin for the first time (congrats @cybertruck 🫡) - Preparation of the Semi factory continues and remains on track with builds scheduled to start by the end of 2025 China @Tesla_Asia - Giga Shanghai produced its 3 millionth car & exported its 1 millionth car Europe @teslaeurope - As of Q3, Model Y is the bestselling vehicle of any type in 2024 in Sweden 🇸🇪, Netherlands 🇳🇱, Denmark 🇩🇰 & Switzerland 🇨🇭 Thank you to our owners! AI/Hardware @Tesla_AI - In Q3, we released FSD Supervised 12.5, bringing improved safety & comfort thanks to a 5x increase in the number of parameters, data & training compute (will continue to scale in Q4) - We also released Actually Smart Summon & deployed FSD Supervised to @Cybertruck, including end-to-end driving on highways for the first time - Compute rules everything around us: We're already training on a 29k H100 cluster at Giga Texas – expecting to have 50k H100 capacity by end of October Vehicle & other software - Summer Release shipped with features like Parental Controls, YouTube & Amazon Music as native apps, Hands-Free Frunk, added weather forecast & other improvements Powertrain, Battery & Manufacturing - Unveiled Cybercab & Robovan at our We, Robot event in October – both purpose-built for autonomy from the ground up - Cybercab will be built on our next-gen platform, which includes a new powertrain with an estimated 5.5 mi/kWh – our most efficient one yet - Produced our 100 millionth 4680 cell & continue to progress our dry cathode manufacturing lines Energy @teslaenergy - Megafactory in Lathrop demonstrated 200 Megapacks/week (40 Gwh run rate) @Tesla_Megapack - Powerwall deployments reached a record for the 2nd quarter in a row - As of Q3, over 100k Powerwalls were enrolled in VPP programs!

Tesla's tweet photo. Q3 2024 Shareholder Update → https://t.co/fvAaI97WoA

— Highlights

- Produced our 7 millionth vehicle at Fremont factory!

- Preparations for new vehicles remain underway (including more affordable models), which we'll begin launching in the first half of 2025

- Record gross margin for @teslaenergy

- COGS (cost of goods sold) per vehicle came down to lowest level ever – key to enabling affordability

Vehicle
US @tesla_na
- Refreshed Model 3 ramp continued successfully

- @cybertruck production increased sequentially & achieved a positive gross margin for the first time (congrats @cybertruck 🫡)

- Preparation of the Semi factory continues and remains on track with builds scheduled to start by the end of 2025

China @Tesla_Asia
- Giga Shanghai produced its 3 millionth car & exported its 1 millionth car

Europe @teslaeurope
- As of Q3, Model Y is the bestselling vehicle of any type in 2024 in Sweden 🇸🇪, Netherlands 🇳🇱, Denmark 🇩🇰 & Switzerland 🇨🇭

Thank you to our owners!

AI/Hardware @Tesla_AI
- In Q3, we released FSD Supervised 12.5, bringing improved safety & comfort thanks to a 5x increase in the number of parameters, data & training compute (will continue to scale in Q4)

- We also released Actually Smart Summon & deployed FSD Supervised to @Cybertruck, including end-to-end driving on highways for the first time

- Compute rules everything around us: We're already training on a 29k H100 cluster at Giga Texas – expecting to have 50k H100 capacity by end of October

Vehicle & other software
- Summer Release shipped with features like Parental Controls, YouTube & Amazon Music as native apps, Hands-Free Frunk, added weather forecast & other improvements

Powertrain, Battery & Manufacturing
- Unveiled Cybercab & Robovan at our We, Robot event in October – both purpose-built for autonomy from the ground up

- Cybercab will be built on our next-gen platform, which includes a new powertrain with an estimated 5.5 mi/kWh – our most efficient one yet

- Produced our 100 millionth 4680 cell & continue to progress our dry cathode manufacturing lines

Energy @teslaenergy
- Megafactory in Lathrop demonstrated 200 Megapacks/week (40 Gwh run rate) @Tesla_Megapack

- Powerwall deployments reached a record for the 2nd quarter in a row

- As of Q3, over 100k Powerwalls were enrolled in VPP programs!

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gotha07 retweeted

unusual_whales

@unusual_whales

almost 2 years ago

Elon Musk has announced that he will be randomly awarding $1 million every day from now until Election Day to registered Pennsylvania voters who sign America PAC’s petition

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