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Every British PM’s nightmare
With Keir Starmer expected to fall on his sword shortly, here is my take on the conundrum facing Andy Burnham, indeed any and every British PM.
The true nature of Britain’s ‘special relationship’ with the United States has far more to do with American financiers’ willingness to keep borrowing to purchase British government debt than with history, culture or Britain’s defence needs. This is the burden under which every UK Prime Minister must labour.
Mike Tyson famously said, “Everyone has a plan until they get hit”. The same could be said of prospective British prime ministers, especially after Liz Truss's spectacular defenestration. They all have a plan until the guilt market hits them. Andy Burnham, Nigel Farage, my friend Zack Polanski will have to face this, if they ever move into 10 Downing Street. I think they know it. But I doubt whether they appreciate the true magnitude or nature of their predicament.
Conventional wisdom has it that the bond market comprises people looking to invest their savings in a government's debt. They seek the right balance between a higher interest rate and the increased risk this implies. For example, higher bond yields may signal that the market expects future inflation to reduce the value of the fixed interest payments that their bonds will yield. Worse still, it may foreshadow a risk of government default, as occurred in Argentina and Greece.
That’s more or less what first year economics and finance students are taught. And it’s all true. Except that, in the case of the United Kingdom, this story misses the most fascinating and worrying aspect of its government bond or gilt market: The British government’s ability to refinance its public debt of almost 3 trillion pounds does not depend on savers choosing to invest in gilts. In fact, the British government’s ability to sell gilts hinges heavily on the willingness of numerous US-based financial institutions to borrow substantial sums of dollars to purchase British gilts, which they then use as collateral to borrow for their own purposes within the US.
And there’s the rub. There is a world of difference between needing to borrow from savers and from relying on speculators who borrow themselves to lend you. Savers who lend to you focus on your long-term ability to repay them. They may tolerate your desire to make infrastructural investments that could increase your debt in the short term, in return for future profits that will help you repay them when their bonds expire. However, speculators who borrow in order to lend are a different beast entirely. They are much jumpier and prone to margin calls: situations where, if the bonds they purchased from you begin to lose value, fearing they will not be able to repay their own creditors, they dump your bonds thus turning their decline into a crash.
The question arises: Why are British bonds, or gilts, so much more reliant on American speculators borrowing money to buy them than German bunds, Japanese bonds, Italian bonds or Greek bonds? Why does every British government rely so heavily on American leveraged capital inflows?
It all started in the 1950s when the City of London discovered how to avoid following the British Empire down the road to oblivion. The trick was to carve out a niche for the City within the emerging dollar empire, which was institutionalised within the Bretton Woods system. American financiers faced rigid capital controls within that system, but the City of London was able to alleviate these due to three invaluable features.
First, London’s trading expertise and legal system offered American financiers efficiency with immunity from all sort of interventions, including democratic accountability. Secondly, Britain’s network of offshore jurisdictions offered fabulous tax-minimisation opportunities. And, thirdly, London quickly became the holding depository of a torrent of petrodollars and eurodollars, not to mention the shadowy dollars created outside the United States by foreign bankers.
Thus, the Great British paradox: while the UK's real economy was in decline, the City of London was flourishing. When the Bretton Woods system collapsed in the 1970s, American financiers discovered another use for the City: they borrowed dollars in the US short-term to buy long-term UK government gilts, which they then sold quickly to repay their loans. They would then repeat this process again and again to profit handsomely. This is how the British government became reliant on leveraged US institutions. In order to continue operating as usual, London today requires American balance sheets that are willing to expand through borrowing and use British gilts as collateral in order to maintain liquidity in the US.
Put differently, the flipside of the City’s success story is that, even though it borrows in a currency that it prints, the UK is not financially sovereign. Yes, the City occupies a strategically important position within the global dollar system but the price for this is that the UK government’s sovereignty is circumscribed by its priority to maintain the City’s central position in American finance. While this remains the priority, the occupant of 10 Downing Street is like the captain whose powers are limited to re-arranging the deck chairs on the Titanic.
Is there an alternative to this peculiar form of financial subservience to US-based leveraged financiers? Yes, but it requires a willingness to accept a falling pound and falling house prices while increasing public investment through a new investment bank that issues bonds supported by the Bank of England.
Any Prime Minister who tries to maintain Britain’s financial servitude to US capital while also investing in public goods may well put Britain on a path towards the IMF, whose sole purpose, lest we forget, is to create the political leverage that will bring about – like it did in Greece – the permanent loss of sovereignty over tax and spending policy. The question is: Do the current contenders for Britain’s top job understand this?
https://t.co/xGrWjjcudY
Ο Άλαν Γκρίνσπαν μας αποχαιρέτησε σήμερα. Ο άνθρωπος που το σύστημα είχε αναδείξει ως τον «κεντρικό τραπεζίτη των κεντρικών τραπεζιτών» και ο οποίος λάμβανε ως αλήθεια την πλάνη ότι οι αγορές είναι θεότητες και η ασταθεία αρετή.
Ο επιτάφιός του; Μια μοναδική, λαμπρή ομολογία: «Βρήκα ένα ελάττωμα στο μοντέλο μου για τον κόσμο». ¨Ένα ελάττωμα", ομολόγησε, λες κι επρόκειτο για σωλήνα που στάζει αντί για την ολοκληρωτική και με αναστρέψιμη κατάρρευση του νεοφιλελεύθερου ιδεολογήματος που τον ανέδειξε σε «Μάντη των Αγορών». Ποιον; Έναν κύριο που, για δεκαετίες, κήρυττε ότι το προσωπικό συμφέρον του αρπακτικού ήταν το αόρατο χέρι του κοινού καλού.
Τότε, το 2008, όταν το θεριό καταβρόχθησε τις αγαπημένες αγορές του, προς τιμήν του, ο Γκίνσπαν αμφιταλαντεύτηκε, παραδεχόμενος ότι ολόκληρη η κοσμοθεωρία του —αυτή που οι κεντρικοί τραπεζίτες είχαν αναγάγει σε δόγμα και η "καλή κοινωνία" είχε καταπιεί αμάσητη— ήταν ένα παραμύθι επικερδές για τους εισοδηματίες.
Φυσικά, ο Γκρίνσπαν δεν παραδέχτηκε την ευθύνη του. Αυτό θα απαιτούσε ηθική πυξίδα, ένα εργαλείο που απουσιάζει εμφανώς από την εμπνευσμένη από την Άιν Ραντ εργαλειοθήκη του. Όχι, απλώς ομολόγησε την αστοχία του και κατόπιν επέστρεψε στην σιωπή του.
Αντίο, λοιπόν, Μαέστρο. Βοήθησες να χτιστεί μια χυδαία παγκόσμια οικονομία-καζίνο, αλλά τουλάχιστον είχες την ευπρέπεια να διαβάσεις δυνατά την έκθεση της αυτοψίας της. Δυστυχώς, αμέτρητα εκατομμύρια εξακολουθούν να πληρώνουν το σφάλμα στο μοντέλο σου.
https://t.co/ftWXeIeAQr
www.https://t.co/hi4eOQdxbM Watched this afternoon. I would highly recommend this film. If you want to understand what's happening in Palestine today and see how history repeats itself, this is a must see film. Beautifully crafted, great acting. #Palestine36@WaterMelonFilms
I am more than familiar with Palestine history during the British occupation -its crimes and legacy - and yet. Watching #Palestine36 was a gut-wrenching experience.
Gentle as it can be, Palestinian storytelling cannot hide the horror of the crimes Palestinians have endured.
We must protect vulnerable people, the underdog,truthtellers,those who fight for #Peace,#Truth,#Justice. We must protect @FranceskAlbs. If you haven't signed @couragefound's petition for @FranceskAlbs, pls do it now!
https://t.co/a7XDmJ0CjO
"What I did in Gaza: an Israeli soldier’s reckoning," as he helps to debunk the Israeli government’s narrative that atrocities and war crimes were committed by only a few bad apples. “It’s the entire system. It is systematic crimes that we are doing.”
https://t.co/fW09cR4vyt
👊🌎El modus operandi del nuevo golpismo es conocido.
1. Primero se construye un relato sobre la supuesta fragilidad institucional del país. Luego se amplifican denuncias selectivas en redes sociales, medios internacionales y plataformas digitales.
2. Después aparecen las advertencias diplomáticas, las “preocupaciones” de congresistas estadounidenses, los informes ambiguos de observación de la OEA y las campañas de miedo económico.
3. Finalmente, si el resultado no favorece a las élites alineadas con Washington, se instala la narrativa del fraude, la ilegitimidad o la amenaza autoritaria.
📺📱🗞️La desinformación cumple aquí un papel central. América Latina enfrenta hoy una maquinaria continental de manipulación digital financiada por sectores empresariales, laboratorios ideológicos y operadores políticos vinculados a las nuevas derechas globales.
🇧🇷🇲🇽🇧🇴 Lo ocurrido en Brasil contra Lula, en México contra López Obrador y Claudia Sheimbaum o en Bolivia tras el golpe de 2019 y ahora mismo, muestra que las fake news ya no son fenómenos marginales: son instrumentos de guerra política.
🇨🇴 Colombia es, con el Proyecto Júpiter, el próximo gran laboratorio de esa ofensiva. No se trata sólo de intervenir en la opinión pública. Se busca producir un clima permanente de sospecha social donde cualquier triunfo progresista pueda ser presentado como ilegítimo, peligroso o fraudulento
📺 https://t.co/hZe3sy7kRN
At some point every Holocaust museum will be forced to include an exhibit on what’s happening in Gaza right now. It’s only a matter of time. Dr. Nick Maynard of Oxford University medical school has been a witness to the genocide.
God bless Professor Rashid Khalidi for championing sharp-nailing.
Listen. Learn it by heart. Share it widely.
Key message for the anti-Apartheid movement: stay united and purposeful. Do not fracture over intellectually entertaining issues on which you personally have no impact.
Amerikalı Profesör Richard Mortel Kur’ân dili Arapça’nın neden derinlikli, kapsamlı ve kuşatıcı bir dil olduğunu çok güzel anlatıyor:
Arapça’nın diğer tüm dillerden daha üstün ve faziletli olduğuna tam manasıyla inanıyorum. Bu konuda hiçbir tartışmayı kabul etmiyorum.
Allah, Arap dilinin beyan gücünün, insanlara ulaştırmak istediği mesajı taşımaya ve aktarmaya en muktedir dil olduğunu takdir etti.
Biz 'Kur'an'ı tercüme ettik' demeyiz, 'Kur'an'ın manalarını tercüme ettik' deriz. Kur'an, Arap dili yoluyla insanın kalbinin en derinlerine ulaşır, seni ikna eder ve o dilin estetiğini sana hissettirir. Dil uzmanı olmasan bile o güzelliği içinde hissedersin.
Birilerinin çıkıp, 'Tamam, Kur'an Arapça indi ama bu Arapçanın diğer dillerden üstün olduğu anlamına gelmez' demesine hiç tahammülüm yok.
URGENTE: 💥💥💥
La ONU acusa a Israel de cometer EXTERMINACIÓN en Gaza. EXTERMINACIÓN.
Repítelo. Difúndelo. Deja que el mundo lo sepa.
“Israel es responsable de exterminación, asesinato, uso del hambre como método de guerra...”
—El Consejo de Derechos Humanos de la ONU
#Israël_Is_Enemy_Of_The_Humanity 👇👇👇
I don’t care about the Right vs. the Left anymore
See where I am going
Houston, Jun 4 - 5 - 6
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Istanbul, Jun 19
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Belly of the Beast
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