Surprised that the Caesars Entertainment $CZR / Fertitta Entertainment merger is trading at just a 5.6% arbitrage yield and an implied 83% odds of success.
Thought yield would be higher / odds would be lower due to:
- antitrust risk
- leverage
- timing risk
- low chance of successful go-shop
Here's my theory on Tesla SUV strategy in the USA:
>discontinue X due to lagging sales and long in the tooth- no longer needed
>don't release Y-L yet because you need to clear the X inventory and that would crush the remaining X demand
>have a big 3rd row SUV in the works on the Cybertruck platform (I'm calling it the Cyburban from here forward) to replace the X as the flagship large SUV, but don't announce it too soon as that would hurt demand for the Cybertruck and the X, both of which are suffering already
>run a sale on new cheaper Cybertruck temporarily to keep the CT tooling and investments working while you bridge the gap to the Cyburban which will be made on the same production lines when it's ready
>announce the Y-L coming to the USA first and make a zillion dollars on it first since Y's are already in mass production and this takes minimal changes to pump out and USA consumers will pay more for it = pure profit
>announce Cyburban next and roll out the premium trims to early adopters like they did cybertruck and sell as many as you can for the highest price
>release lower trim levels of Cyburban next, and the success of the Cyburban extends the the Cybertruck in the lineup several more years as well since they share so much compatibility
Now mainstream American families have everything they want from Tesla for their personal vehicles:
- affordable smaller cars
- a great mid-sized 2 or 3 row SUV
- a true full size 3rd row SUV
- a pickup
BAM 💥
I hope I'm right.
@spac_insider@SpaceX Yeah-While brokerages like Vanguard allow selling of already held OTC holdings, they don’t allow buying. I have no idea how a Robinhood would handle already held SPARs?
Can it be fixed to allow SPARs to trade elsewhere? Perhaps @BillAckman already has a plan he could clarify?
@SCHDETF Ackman likes Uber. I like Ackman’s HHH plans more especially announcement of Vantage acquisition. Run some scenarios for how the insurance/real estate/holding co plans pan out over next 2-10 years. My thought is you have 2 years to load cheap before major compounding starts.
@heyrarebot Outside of SCHD/VOO and a couple other dividend growth etfs, I like MA, AMZN, HHH and I have some FNMA/FMCC too.
Hopefully 2026 is better for our little schd tho…
.@POTUS@realDonaldTrump, don’t miss a once-in-a-generation opportunity to build housing for America’s Middle Class by releasing Fannie Mae $FNMA and Freddie Mac $FMCC ! @HousingForUS_#HousingForUs
💪🇺🇸🏘️
@Cash_D66 @AnnieTyzak @Cash_D66 @AnnieTyzak $SCHD, There’s a misunderstanding here. ETFs like SCHD dont dilute investors-new shares are created via in-kind process w/ APs, matching value of underlying assets, NAV per share = intact. The price drop reflects portfolio performance @SCHDETF - help em!