Shopify CEO Tobi Lutke explains Goodhartâs law and why he doesnât like KPIs or OKRs
âGoodhartâs law is real. The moment a metric becomes a goal, itâs no longer a useful metric⊠No metric by itself is a complete heuristic for a complex business. Thereâs a million different tensions in a company, and you canât keep all of them in harmony by optimizing for one thing.â
For this reason, Shopify doesnât use KPIs or OKRs. But as Tobi explains, this doesnât mean they donât value data and metrics.
âWe are extremely data informed. We have invested enormous amounts of money and time into systems that give us basically everything at our fingertips⊠But what Shopify attempts to do is just not over-fit for whatâs quantifiable.â
People love optimizing for highly-quantifiable things because thereâs immediate gratification that comes from seeing a number go up. But Tobi thinks that the most important aspects of a product are rarely quantifiable:
âThe overlap of the most valuable things you can do with a product and the things that happen to be fully quantifiable are like maybe 20%. Which leaves 80% of a value space unaddressable by the people who only look at quantifiable things.â
He continues:
âShopify is comfortable with unquantifiable things like taste, quality, passion, love, hate⊠The sort of deep satisfaction that a craftsperson feels when theyâve done a job well is actually a better proxy if you allow it to be.â
They then have robust analytics systems that tell the company if somethingâs wrong or a new rollout breaks something.
âWe think about it as a cockpit for a pilot. The decisions are still made by pilots, and we think this leads to better results⊠I think there needs to be more acceptance in business of unquantifiable things⊠And then metrics take a support function.â
Source: @lennysan (Feb 2025)
You buy a German anvil. It contains 83 moving parts and requires winding twice a day. It's forged from excellent steel, holds tolerances across all three striking faces to within three microns, includes a beautifully indexed horn-adjustment mechanism nobody asked for, and requires a proprietary 11-point spanner should you need to replace the rebound calibration bushing. It runs flawlessly for years, but one day it starts up in limp mode because the onboard anvil-management system detects that it's overdue for its 50,000-strike inspection.
You search AliExpress for a Chinese anvil, and are presented with a multitude of offerings from such household-name brands as DUKXJYIBF, HDBTGMXI, AND UEJQIP. They're all priced to within a few pennies of each other, appear completely identical except for the nameplate, and obviously all came out of the same factory. You text your blacksmith friend to ask if they're legit. He tells you he got one like that from KIXJBU a few years ago, and that it's been great and a terrific deal. You thank him, but KIXJBU seems to have folded so you buy the one from UEJQIP. When it arrives, it feels suspiciously light. You scratch it and realize it's iron-plated aluminum.
You buy an American anvil. It's five times the price of the competition, but it comes from a brand that your great-grandfather used to love. It comes boxed with a warranty registration postcard, twenty pages of safety instructions, assay certificate, and a regulatory slip which lists its FCC certification and ITAR registration. It looks just like your friend's KIXJBU. There's a "Made In China" sticker on the bottom.
You buy a Russian anvil. It arrives coated in cosmoline, wrapped in newspaper from 1974, and weighing 40% more than advertised. The finish looks like it was machined with a shovel. The face is not flat, but somehow this does not matter. You drop it off a truck, accidentally leave it outside for six winters, and use it to straighten a bulldozer blade. It's fine.
You buy a Swedish anvil. It comes flat-packed in a long cardboard box with cheerful Neo-Grotesk lettering and a line drawing of a smiling man assembling it with an Allen key. The instructions contain no words, only pictograms showing the anvil face, horn, waist, feet, and 112 identical-looking fasteners. Halfway through assembly, you discover that the pritchel hole was installed upside down, but only because you used peg B17 where you should have used peg B71. Once assembled, it is clean, stable, and works better than it has any right to. You immediately wonder whether you should have bought two.
You buy a Japanese anvil. It arrives wrapped in rice paper inside a paulownia box, accompanied by a certificate bearing three generations of signatures and a photograph of the first production example being presented to the Emperor. The face has been hand-polished by a seventy-eight-year-old master whose family has made striking surfaces since the Muromachi period. You are given detailed instructions for oiling it with a cloth folded in a specific way. It is the most beautiful object you own. You never quite work up the nerve to strike it.
In 2006 a high school English teacher asked students to write to a famous author & ask for advice.
KURT VONNEGUT (who left us 19yrs ago today) was the only one to respond.
His reply was a doozy.
Eisenhower: âEvery gun that is made, every warship launched, every rocket fired signifies, in the final sense, a theft from those who hunger and are not fed, those who are cold and are not clothed.â (1953)
Let me explain exactly why your phone seems to read your thoughts, because the real answer is more invasive than telepathy.
Every time you open a website or app, a real-time bidding auction fires in under 100 milliseconds. Your GPS coordinates, browsing history, device fingerprint, age, gender, income bracket, and hundreds of inferred interest categories get packaged into a âbid requestâ and broadcast to hundreds of companies simultaneously. One company wins the ad slot. All of them keep the data.
This happens thousands of times per day per person. A 2018 New York Times investigation found 75 companies pulling precise location data from apps, with some users tracked up to 14,000 times in 24 hours.
In 2012, a Target statistician identified 25 products that, purchased in combination, could predict a customer was pregnant and estimate her due date. A teenagerâs father discovered she was pregnant because Target sent baby coupons to the house before she told anyone. That was one retailer. Store receipts only. Fourteen years ago.
Now scale that. Your phone pings GPS while you sleep. Data brokers link your phone, laptop, and tablet through probabilistic matching of IP addresses, WiFi networks, and behavioral patterns without you ever logging in. The FTC caught two brokers in 2024 categorizing people by visits to reproductive health clinics, political protests, and religious services, then selling those profiles to law enforcement.
The algorithm doesnât hear your thoughts. It compares your behavioral fingerprint against millions of similar profiles and predicts your next interest before youâre consciously aware of it. It makes hundreds of predictions per day. You ignore the misses. The five hits feel like telepathy.
You paid for the phone. You pay for the data plan. You generate the signal. And every time a page loads, your identity gets auctioned to the highest bidder before the content even renders.
They called it âpersonalized advertisingâ because âreal-time mass surveillance funded by the people being surveilledâ doesnât fit on a consent banner.
No one tells you that parenting is just relearning the world through someone who thinks worms are friends & birds are miracles. Itâs the most healing thing Iâve ever done. My daughter looked out the window this morning & said, everything is green & growing. I told her, you too. And something inside me whispered, so are you. Now Iâm watching her hold flowers up to the sun while the light bends like it recognizes her. Itâs funny, every spring I think Iâm teaching my child about the world & every spring she proves sheâs the one teaching me how to see it.
Worf: Am I MAGA? Or am I⊠woke
Picard: Now is not the time Worf
Data: *spins around* Captain, if I may? The two options may not be mutually exclusive
Wesley: Impact in fifteen seconds
Andrew Fraser Tytler writing in the 1780s:
âA democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.
The average age of the world's greatest civilizations has been 200 years. These nations have progressed through this sequence: From bondage to spiritual faith; From spiritual faith to great courage; From courage to liberty; From liberty to abundance; From abundance to selfishness; From selfishness to apathy; From apathy to dependence; From dependence back into bondage.â
Reagan's cancellation of the FCC Fairness Doctrine, enabling...
Fox News, conservative talk radio, and other divisive propaganda outlets,....
Citizen United and the increasing influence of Big Money in politics, enabling....
Regular people getting screwed for 40 years while productivity and corporate profits soared, creating....
Lots of very angry people who will vote for any populist that shows up
Microservices is the software industryâs most successful confidence scam. It convinces small teams that they are âthinking bigâ while systematically destroying their ability to move at all. It flatters ambition by weaponizing insecurity: if youâre not running a constellation of services, are you even a real company? Never mind that this architecture was invented to cope with organizational dysfunction at planetary scale. Now itâs being prescribed to teams that still share a Slack channel and a lunch table.
Small teams run on shared context. That is their superpower. Everyone can reason end-to-end. Everyone can change anything. Microservices vaporize that advantage on contact. They replace shared understanding with distributed ignorance. No one owns the whole anymore. Everyone owns a shard. The system becomes something that merely happens to the team, rather than something the team actively understands. This isnât sophistication. Itâs abdication.
Then comes the operational farce. Each service demands its own pipeline, secrets, alerts, metrics, dashboards, permissions, backups, and rituals of appeasement. You donât âdeployâ anymoreâyou synchronize a fleet. One bug now requires a multi-service autopsy. A feature release becomes a coordination exercise across artificial borders you invented for no reason. You didnât simplify your system. You shattered it and called the debris âarchitecture.â
Microservices also lock incompetence in amber. You are forced to define APIs before you understand your own business. Guesses become contracts. Bad ideas become permanent dependencies. Every early mistake metastasizes through the network. In a monolith, wrong thinking is corrected with a refactor. In microservices, wrong thinking becomes infrastructure. You donât just regret itâyou host it, version it, and monitor it.
The claim that monoliths donât scale is one of the dumbest lies in modern engineering folklore. What doesnât scale is chaos. What doesnât scale is process cosplay. What doesnât scale is pretending youâre Netflix while shipping a glorified CRUD app. Monoliths scale just fine when teams have discipline, tests, and restraint. But restraint isnât fashionable, and boring doesnât make conference talks.
Microservices for small teams is not a technical mistakeâit is a philosophical failure. It announces, loudly, that the team does not trust itself to understand its own system. It replaces accountability with protocol and momentum with middleware. You donât get âfuture proofing.â You get permanent drag. And by the time you finally earn the scale that might justify this circus, your speed, your clarity, and your product instincts will already be gone.
Plenty of legitimate questions surround Portland Public Schools' rushed plan to buy a building for the Center for Black Student Excellence. PPS board members must be able to show how this deal benefits students, not nonprofits. Editorial: https://t.co/hBy0qv2jjz
Iâm sorry. What?!?? Massively respected investigative journalist from Reuters reporting on internal docs that north of $10 Billion of annual advertising spend on Facebook and Instagram is fraud and their stock barely trails the market today? This is nuts. And they know it? 1/2