The Greater Fool Report

Contrarian Trader/ Political Commentator / Financial Markets Fuckery

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[The Greater Fool Report @greaterfoolrep]

@SamanthaLaDuc As a life long personal trainer and gym owner. These drugs are incredible. Some people just don’t have the self control. I’ve seen so many people lose between 30-150 pounds on these drugs where they were never able to do so for years.

[The Greater Fool Report @greaterfoolrep]

This market it ridiculous.
They punish Amazon for spending too much on CapEx but they also punish the companies that are receiving that CapEx.

wtf?

This is a buy the dip opportunity in Hardware names.

AI is incredible and it’s not slowing down.

The amount of productivity we get in our business from AI is insane.

If Claude raided their price by 100% tomorrow, I would pay it and so would most people.

You really think people are going to stop using Chatbots now that everyone knows what it is?
$QQQ $SPY $AMZN

[The Greater Fool Report @greaterfoolrep]

$BTC
I told you

[The Greater Fool Report @greaterfoolrep]

$BTC looks like a limp dick
It just wont move.
The volatility is dead.
Its as boring as gold.

$GLD $ETH $QQQ $SPY

[The Greater Fool Report @greaterfoolrep]

Why the fuck would you short it when the stock has already dropped like 80%

If I had all this information, even if I knew it was true, I would still not short into a fucking hole like this.

Clearly, who is whoever is running this fund is absolutely retarded

$CBRS $QQQ $SPY

[Culper @CulperResearch]

NEW: We are short Cerebras Systems $CBRS. Cerebras claims to have solved wafer-scale chips. We believe otherwise: $CBRS wafers break down after just ~2 years in use - a lifespan that undermines the entire business. See full report and disclosures on our website, link in bio.

[The Greater Fool Report @greaterfoolrep]

Today is a buy the dip opportunity in Tech.

I feel like we are reaching the peak escalation in this Iran war.

It’s not just the US, the entire world is suffering.
China is suffering, Russia is suffering, US is suffering, Europe is suffering.

It is in everyone’s best interest to get this war over with.

Iran is holding out until the midterms to inflict their pain on Trump.

Post that, they HAVE to make a deal.

By next year a lot of the oil leaving the gulf will be diverted to other routes and pipelines.

The more time goes by. The less leverage Iran has.

They will make a deal.

Couple that will buy back window opening, I think we see a tech rally into year end.

$QQQ $SPY $NVDA $MSFT $GOOG

[The Greater Fool Report @greaterfoolrep]

@relational_dbs @DoodadDoctor @IamLegendfdrg @seedy19tron Because he’s literally everywhere. Guy has no life

[The Greater Fool Report @greaterfoolrep]

@QuaestorFi Don’t get too bulked up. $mrna is getting carried like a chain attached to $MRK and $LLY.

[The Greater Fool Report @greaterfoolrep]

What did we learn about $MRNA from the $MRK earnings?

Yes, the 0.58 RFS looks shiny on a slide deck. But go look at the actual regulatory disclosures: Overall Survival (OS) is completely immature.

The FDA has been ruthless lately about surrogate endpoints. If regulators look at this and say "cool story, but we’re throwing you into Accelerated Approval until people actually live longer," the entire bull thesis takes a reality check:

Insurance companies are going to fight this tooth and nail. You think payers are going to happily shell out an insane, personalized-mRNA price tag without hard proof that patients are actually surviving longer?

Expect brutal prior auths and red tape.
Accelerated approval is a ticking clock. If they get stamped with conditional approval and that OS trend flattens out in a couple of years (which happens constantly in oncology), both MRK andMRNA are holding a massive regulatory bag.

The supply chain is already a logistical nightmare. Moderna has to sequence, synthesize, and cryo-ship a custom batch for every single patient inside a 6-week window. Doing that high-wire act for a drug with a conditional asterisk next to its name is insane operational overhead.

Surrogate numbers pump stock prices on day one, but survival curves are what actually build multi-billion dollar drugs. Until we see real, mature OS separation, this is priced for pure perfection that hasn’t actually been proven yet.

And even if you assume the absolute best-case commercial scenario, the math still doesn't justify the hype:

Under the 50/50 partnership, the most amount of revenue share Moderna can realistically pull in is ~$2.5B to $2.7B per year at peak (assuming a massive ~$5B to $5.5B total product run across high-risk adjuvant melanoma).

Because this isn't an off-the-shelf vaccine where you print batches for pennies, custom sequencing, synthetic mRNA runs, and cold-chain logistics eat into the margins:

Gross Margins: Even with automated cleanrooms, expect gross margins capped around 60% to 65% after factoring in direct sequencing, specialized reagents, and individualized batch handling.

Operating Margins: After joint SG&A, oncology field force allocation, and commercial distribution costs are billed against the collaboration, operating margins will land closer to 35% to 40%.

That leaves Moderna clearing around ~$900M to $1.1B in net operating profit annually. After standard corporate taxes (~15–20%) spread across their ~385M diluted share count, intismeran is only adding around $2.00 to $2.40 in EPS to their earnings—and that’s years down the road at full peak penetration.

Moderna loses $8-9% per share right now. So that mean in 2 years they will still be losing 5-6 per share 🤮🤮

Sell.

$MRK $QQQ $SPY $LLY $JNJ $XLV $AMGN

[The Greater Fool Report @greaterfoolrep]

@DoodadDoctor @IamLegendfdrg @seedy19tron Ahaha your entire thesis short squeeze?
Even those shorts have had over 2 months for be better prepared and hedged lol

[The Greater Fool Report @greaterfoolrep]

@QuaestorFi Ready for $350? That’s my liq level

[The Greater Fool Report @greaterfoolrep]

@Jrguezg The stock would have to hit $350 for me to get worried so relax lol

[The Greater Fool Report @greaterfoolrep]

@thetacollection What do you mean

[The Greater Fool Report @greaterfoolrep]

@SwingtradingGod Can any of you explain why MRK has given up 90% of his gains from the August 19 pump and Moderna hasn’t?

[The Greater Fool Report @greaterfoolrep]

@IamLegendfdrg ahaha why are you so angry
Just focus on making money friend

[The Greater Fool Report @greaterfoolrep]

$MRNA
Head and shoulder formation? Or breakout to all time highs?

[The Greater Fool Report @greaterfoolrep]

@IamLegendfdrg My average is $205 lol
relax.
This thing would have to hit $350 for me to get margin callled

[The Greater Fool Report @greaterfoolrep]

@JustAKidMM It’s also probabilities

[The Greater Fool Report @greaterfoolrep]

$MRNA Selling resumes today.
Yesterday it got saved because there was a MEME stock rally in everything that was junk.
Become this stock is a meme stock and is included in a lot of momentum ETFs like $MEME and $MTUM it also benefited from that pump.

[The Greater Fool Report @greaterfoolrep]

Bro just move on.

[The Greater Fool Report @greaterfoolrep]

Moderna CEO 🤣
The people at Moderna are going to Royal fuck a lot of retail regards that are hopeful that the Moderna scam artists cured cancer.
$MRNA $MRK

[The Greater Fool Report @greaterfoolrep]

you cant fuck with elon dude
What ever he has you short, he will just come up with a whole new fucking thing and dangle it in front of investors.
You cant short tesla cuz everyone thinks Space X will buy them out
and you cant go long cuz its selling at 100x+ Forward earnings lol

[The Greater Fool Report @greaterfoolrep]

$MRNA Swung 26% today
It opened -2% and dropped to -10% only to rally +16%

INSANE

To put that in perspective. It only dropped 20% last Thursday when the data got released.

It has been swinging between 10-20 daily for the past 10 days

The volatility is insane in.

$MRK $QQQ $SPY