Recordatorio estoico:
Si tu paz depende de que todo vaya bien, no es paz, es control. Aprende a permanecer estable en la incertidumbre. Eso es el crecimiento de verdad.
When I make a trade, my thinking is never about being right or even wrong. It's about risk vs. reward. I call it Bell Curve Thinking. I ask myself, if I make this trade 1000 times, does it come out a winner. Is it likely that the trade's upside is at least 2-3X the my stop? If I get those right, the rest takes care of itself.
My most recent $SPY short is a perfect example. The stock fell 5X my stop. I had the opportunity to capture 5Rs. But that's precisely what afforded me to hold for a bigger move while improving my stop to breakeven. I made that decision based on the odds at the time. If I turn out to be wrong... nothing lost. Next.
Today marked Day 3 of the latest rally attempts in both the Nasdaq and S&P 500. The earliest a follow-through day could occur is tomorrow. Ideally, one develops between Days 4 and 7, although valid follow-through days can occur later.
No bull market or major uptrend has ever begun without a preceding follow-through day. However, a follow-through day alone does not guarantee a sustained advance. The real test is the quality and breadth of leadership. A healthy uptrend requires several groups of institutional-quality growth stocks, preferably early in their cycles, to lead the way.
Despite the poor technical condition of the major indexes, a surprising number of sound setups are progressing across traditional growth sectors. However, these isolated pockets of strength should not be mistaken for healthy market leadership. With just 145 new highs versus 325 new lows today, most stocks are not participating.
The disconnect is unmistakable: select growth stocks are showing promise, but the broader market continues to deteriorate. Until participation broadens meaningfully, the foundation for a sustainable advance simply isn't there.
I remain 100% in cash. A follow-through day accompanied by broadening, healthy leadership would warrant a change in stance. Until then, I'll let the market earn my participation and keep following my rules. As Bill O’Neil famously said, “The market doesn't care what you think or how you feel, which is why you have to have rules!”
Stay patient, refine your watchlists, update your alerts, and be ready when conditions improve.
I'm begging you to please start taking your life more seriously. You don't have much time on this earth. Stop wasting it by doomscrolling, partying, and numbing your mind with cheap dopamine. Lock in. Fix your finances. Improve your relationships. Get in shape because looking good matters. Surround yourself with people who push you to be better. You'd be surprised by just how great your life will be if you just took yourself more seriously.
Software is dead.
We’re a bunch of portrait painters and the camera just came out.
Sure, there’s some residual value in zombie subscriptions and old people who don’t bother to switch.
Or corporations who pay a fortune for things that should be free and bizarre main frame software that nobody has an incentive to update.
But RIP 98% of the software industry.
Fable 5.2 can built Microsoft Excel in ~50 hours (source: @MatthewBerman ).
At the current rate of improvement:
2027: 7 hours
2028: 57 min
2029: 8 min
2030: 1 min
2031: 8 seconds
ChatGPT just launched generative interfaces for chat results.
Ask a question and it finds the most elegant way to display it (a map, data, etc).
Within 3-5 years it will generate the perfect interface + software for your task in less time that it takes to microwave a burrito.
People always love to answer this with: “There’s still record shops!”
The difference is, the guy who used to own big record store owned a private jet.
Now he drives a beat up Ford Taurus.
A person comes to me with a spark.
I fan that spark until it becomes a flame.
I feed the flame until it becomes a fire.
I fuel the fire until it becomes a roaring blaze.
And once that fire is burning from within, they no longer need me to keep it alive.
That is the essence of great coaching. It's not about creating the spark. It's about recognizing what's already inside someone and helping them turn it into something unstoppable.
But there's a requirement.
The student must come with two things: a spark and an empty cup.
The spark is the desire, the hunger, the willingness to do whatever it takes.
The empty cup is the humility to put aside what you think you know, open your mind, and make room for new wisdom.
I can fan a spark. I can fuel a fire. I can fill an empty cup with knowledge earned through decades of experience. But I cannot ignite a fire in someone who has no desire to burn. And I cannot pour wisdom into a cup that is already full.
If you have no spark, or you are uncoached, there is nothing I can do for you except wish you luck.
https://t.co/FfBnR93ojq
STATE OF THE TECH JOB MARKET IN 2026
Twice a year, I dig into trends in hiring and job openings. This is the fifth report I've done, and the most surprising yet:
1. PMs are winning in the AI era
2. Engineering demand has stalled
3. Design openings are at a record low
4. Every role now requires AI skills
5. Tech jobs are concentrating in the Bay Area
6. Remote roles are at a record low
7. The tech job market is growing fast, but mostly outside of software (gasp!)
Full report here: https://t.co/Gly6uqwKxe