Gustavo Reis

🇧🇷 It turns out @markmanson was mostly right about Brazil Over the last 2 years my Brazil ETF lost 16%, so I sold it I also visited Brazil many more times (most recent just a few weeks ago) and while I still love it a lot, I think the problems are just a lot deeper than I thought on my first trip Most Brazilians I meet are actively trying to leave the country, either moving to Europe or the US The other Brazilians I meet who want to stay are often quite delusional about their country: thinking it's a great place to invest (they gladly overlook that the Brazilian Real currency is almost ALWAYS decreasing in value compared to USD, "but why would you need USD if you live in Brazil?"). Many literally do not realize they are getting poorer and poorer every year, not so much domestically but definitely internationally, due to their currency. The legacy of Spanish/Portuguese conquest in Latin America has left such strong echoes of corruption that are hard to escape even today Maybe the bigger problem is that one side of the country that don't have money will keep voting people in to power that promise free money, and you see that all over South America repeatedly Which is why Javier Milei was such a great thing to happen to Argentina But then there ARE people trying to improve it, like David Vélez, the founder of NuBank, the Brazilian Revolut, who somehow managed to create a modern fintech in a country full of corruption (how? I have no clue) Brazil does feel much more modern than Europe (but then what doesn't these days?), there's actually startups, the AC works, there's the payment system Pix, service and food quality is top-tier here etc. Yet the endless issue with Brazil is that it's just not safe, and it probably will never be. Again here you think "there must be an easy fix?". But then you realize that the Brazilian cartels are already infiltrated in each layer of society up to the Senate and president (aka a "narco state"). How much influence they have, who knows, but many think they have some And you can escape the safety issue, a bit. You can move south. South Brazil is much safer. Curitiba is one of those cities where you see many people from Rio and Sao Paulo move out once they have kids and don't wanna be robbed at gunpoint anymore. And yes Curitiba is safe. Still dangerous though. Brazil is always "slightly" different than the other countries in South America, because it's Portuguese, and their culture really is a lot different. And in many ways it's more like the United States than South America. But it's also not so different from the other countries in South America. It's the same corruption, the same security issues, the same never ending bullshit. And for many Brazilians it's easier to just GTFO and go elsewhere than muddle through the quicksand that is building a life in Brazil One interesting thing I see is that some of the "rich" Brazilian Instagram influencers are now trying to speak in American English (with a super obvious thick accent) and one woman I saw even acts like she's American but she's not? Which I assume must be some shame of being associated with Brazil? Which brings me to the extreme rich poor divide you see in Brazil. As a foreigner at my gf's grandma party, I practice my Portuguese and proudly tell I have been a big fan of Baile Funk listening it when @diplo started doing mix tapes of it around 2003. I'm quickly told it's better not to talk about the favelas with grandma. Which is funny of course. But also then I think that's interesting right? There's such a divide here between North and South and rich and poor. I don't think people in Brazil are racist at all though, they're so mixed, it's practically impossible to be. But they're highly classicist. A lot here is about wealth classes Many of these structural issues are just sad because apart from that it's such a beautiful country with honestly some of the nicest people I've ever met. Easily up there with Thai and Filipino, and again so similar! I hope Brazil can make it but just like many of the Brazilians who leave, I simply don't have the patience to wait my whole life for that, that is if it ever even happens at all? 🇧🇷 Ordem e Progresso 🇧🇷 I'll keep hoping for progress... (The motto "Ordem e Progresso" (Order and Progress) on the flag of Brazil is inspired by Auguste Comte’s motto of positivism, "Love as the beginning, and order as the base; progress as the end.")