James

long-term thinking. private investor.

[스펙테이터 인덱스 @spectatorindexk]

속보: '🇯🇵 일본은행' 기준금리 1%로 인상… 1995년 이후 최고치

[SteadyGrowth @steadyG11]

#엔비디아 가 회사채를 발행한다고?

느낌이 참 별로네...

골드러쉬 때 청바지 팔던 리바이스가 왜 부채까지 지는건데??? -.-;

지금 당장 꺾이지는 않을지 몰라도,
찝찝한 건 사실.

https://t.co/h27xlQobda

[CharlieIntel @charlieINTEL]

Xbox is reportedly working on adding "Buy Now, Pay Later" option to the Xbox Store

[via @redphx]

[Orange Book 🍊📖 @orangebook]

Every time we had a new tool, some people found unhealthy ways to use them:

social media made a bunch of people more lonely, angry, and self-hating,

video platforms made a bunch of people incapable of appreciating a great novel anymore,

the ability to connect with new people so easily made a bunch of people incapable of building long-term relationships and a thriving marriage anymore,

and it would be very funny and ironic if “unlimited intelligence” makes people incapable of thinking originally and independently anymore.

[Kevin Carpenter @kejca]

Charlie Munger: "I'm no good at exits. I don't like even looking for exits. I'm looking for holds."

"Think of the pleasure I've gotten from watching Costco march ahead. Such an utter meritocracy and it does so well. Why would I trade that experience for a series of transactions? It's a much less satisfactory life than rooting for people I like and admire."

"I say find Costcos — not good exits."

[빅웨이브 @travis20260121]

운동 동기부여 EBS 다큐를 봤는데, 첫번째 사례가 한국의 인터넷 아버지 전길남 박사. 여든이 훌쩍 넘었는데, 하루에 3번 나눠서 운동을 하시네. 집필 활동까지 하고 있고. 젊었을 땐 전문 산악인 수준으로 활동했다고. 그는 이렇게 얘기함. "아무리 AI 시대가 와도 인간은 결국 몸을 움직이는 존재"

[George Noble @gnoble79]

I was 26 years old when Peter Lynch handed me this.

April 28, 1983. I was the auto and retail analyst at Fidelity.

Peter was in his prime, on his way to building the greatest mutual fund track record in history:

29.2% annual returns for 13 YEARS STRAIGHT, growing Magellan from $18 million to $14 billion. The Babe Ruth of investing.

I'm looking at the principles he had typed up on a single sheet of paper that I've kept in my files for 42 years and I believe now is the perfect time to revisit them again.

Let me walk you through a few:

Rule 1B: "You need an edge to make money. Do not rely on a combination of hope and good luck."

Today's retail investor has no edge. He has Reddit, Robinhood, zero-DTE options and a TikTok algorithm pushing him into whatever stock just ripped 200% the day before.

That's hope and good luck wearing a fancy costume.

Rule 1E: "Purchase stocks like one would purchase a business."

Tesla trades at over 360 times earnings on a business deteriorating in real time, Oracle has $206 billion in liabilities against $39 billion in equity, MicroStrategy is a leveraged Bitcoin holding company priced like a software firm, and don't even get me started on SpaceX, that piece of garbage you'll be able to trade tomorrow...

Nobody in their right mind would buy these as actual businesses. They buy them as stories, narratives, and lottery tickets.

Peter would have called it the same way I do - these are not investments. They are speculations. GAMBLING.

Rule 1G: "Study the balance sheet and cash flow statement."

The hyperscalers spent over $380 billion on AI capex in 2025. Goldman says the measurable productivity payoff does not arrive until 2027 at the earliest.

Oracle just reported NEGATIVE $23.7 billion in free cash flow for fiscal 2026 while borrowing at a pace that would make a leveraged buyout firm nervous. The cash flow statements are screaming but nobody is reading them.

Rule 1I: "Avoid the long shot."

This one cuts the deepest.

The entire market has become a long shot.

OpenAI is projected to post roughly $74 billion in operating losses in 2028 ALONE while priced for transformation tomorrow. Bitcoin treasury companies are multiplying off thin air.

The retail investor of 2026 is making one long-shot bet after another and calling it a portfolio.

Rule 3A: "When the fundamentals change, sell your mistakes."

Tesla's fundamentals have changed.

California registrations are down 24% year over year and inventory days went from 10 to 27. Musk himself admitted on the last earnings call that Hardware 3 cannot achieve unsupervised FSD, breaking a promise made to 4 million customers.

The fundamentals have screamed change. But the stock is still at $385.

The mistakes are not being sold. They are literally being doubled down on with leverage.

Rule 3I: "A 30-50% profit in 12 months is great. Mediocre in three years."

Today's retail crowd expects 30-50% in a WEEK. Then they wonder why they get wiped out the second the hype stops.

And my favorite - Rule 3J: "Develop your own style and stick to it."

That is the entire game right there.

I developed mine sitting across the hall from Peter Lynch in 1983, watching him work, reading his notes, getting my own research handed back to me covered in his pencil marks. Then in 1984, my first full year managing money, I ran the #1 mutual fund in America. The Fidelity Overseas Fund was top 2 for the next six years running.

I did not get there by chasing narratives. I got there by following the sheet of paper you are looking at right now.

42 years later, this single page contains more wisdom than every Fintwit thread, CNBC segment, and Wall Street price target combined.

Peter retired in 1990 with the greatest mutual fund record in history. Then he sat down and wrote books explaining exactly how he did it.

Only a few "investors" these days read them.

And almost nobody is reading the balance sheets, the cash flow statements, or studying actual businesses today either.

They are chasing AI, crypto, and whatever pumped yesterday.

The wisdom on this page is timeless and it's more important than ever.

[Bloomberg @business]

Xbox is planning major layoffs in July as it transforms under new CEO Asha Sharma https://t.co/5YxBnEMdmF

[Nintendo of America @NintendoAmerica]

The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time will be reborn on Nintendo Switch 2 in 2026. #NintendoDirect

[Stealth @Stealth40k]

The Legend of Zelda Ocarina of Time Remake releases on Switch 2 in 2026.

[John Huber @JohnHuber72]

It’s a natural result of having a meaningful part of his revenue coming from money losing companies that have to raise fresh capital in order to buy more GPU’s. I think it’s less about him cheering NVDA stock price and more about him cheering the rest of the ecosystem. Same type of industry cheerleading happened in the .com era

[James @growingaum]

기업의 지분을 갖고있는 사람.

[成金マン @narikin_k]

本当の金持ちは、医者でも弁護士でも大企業の役員でもない。
中小企業のオーナーだよ。

[Wario64 @Wario64]

'Super Mario Galaxy Movie is the first movie to cross $1 billion at the 2026 box office'

'The Super Mario franchise now crosses $2B, becoming the No. 9 biggest animated franchise worldwide and Chris Meledandri’s third franchise in the top 10.'

https://t.co/iqbaxDID2V

[Oh Come On! @BluthCapital]

Hwang is effectively a SIVB Exec+VC:
His success hinges on his customers/depositors ability to raise. When VC $ dried up, SIVB's deposits stopped growing & cash burn showed through.

This is why Hwang is explicitly pumping names: his rev growth requires capital raises

[Matthew Harbaugh @themattharbaugh]

Peter Lynch on multibaggers

"I've often said that a couple of five-baggers every decade is enough to make do-it-yourself investing a worthwhile pastime.

With a 150-bagger like Cook Data, one every half century or so is all anybody needs.

In my investing career, the best gains usually come in the third or fourth year."

[Daniel Ahmad @ZhugeEX]

Fwiw, and the quote isn't in the article, but I said it's unclear whether prices would increase, but they certainly aren't coming down before 2028.

The only company I can see raising prices again right now is Nintendo, because they're prioritizing install base growth atm

[Kevin Carpenter @kejca]

Chris Hohn: "Most companies don't have pricing power. They can only price, if they're lucky, at inflation. But there is a special group of super companies that can price above inflation."

"Real pricing power above inflation can be very valuable. If you can price 1% above inflation and you have a 20% profit margin, your profits will grow 5% faster than revenue." (h/t @NicolaiTang1)

[patrick "inverted vibe curve" blanchfield @PatBlanchfield]

get in folks we're about to take family annihilation rates to the moon

[Exec Sum @exec_sum]

BREAKING: SEC officially eliminates $25,000 minimum equity requirement for day trading

[Kevin Carpenter @kejca]

Charlie Munger: "I would expect Microsoft and Apple and Alphabet to be strong fifty years from now. Really strong."

"[But] it's hard to predict how your world is going to change [in] 70, 80, 90 years. Just think, they wiped out the shareholders of General Motors, they wiped out the shareholders at Kodak. Who in the hell would have predicted that? Technological change can destroy a lot of people."