Greg Sealey

Christian living in SE USA living with Spinal Muscular Atrophy (SMA). -Life is Good.

[The White House @WhiteHouse]

The UNITED STATES of AMERICA CONTROLS the Strait of Hormuz — NOT Iran.

[Greg Sealey @gsealey]

@BravesVisionTV Kindly explain the difference between Braves vision and https://t.co/hnun7fb1uu. I thought they were the same. But, the info graphic in your post calls them out separately. Please explain.

[Greg Sealey @gsealey]

@Dan_Strickland @Braves_Jerseys @Braves @BravesVisionTV Thank you for posting. That is getting ridiculous

[Greg Sealey @gsealey]

@ShaykhSulaiman @grok can you confirm if this statement is true?

[Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡ @shanaka86]

JUST IN: Iran just pulled a thirty-year-old empty supertanker out of retirement and began towing it toward Kharg Island. She is moving so slowly that a voyage that should take a day and a half is taking four days.

Her name is NASHA. IMO 9079107. Built 1996. A two-million-barrel very large crude carrier that has been anchored empty off Kharg for years. TankerTrackers confirmed her reactivation yesterday. Gulf News, Iran International, and Fox News all picked it up within hours.

The reason she is moving at all is that Iran is running out of places to put the oil.

Kharg Island handles roughly ninety percent of Iran’s crude exports. Its onshore tanks had about thirteen million barrels of spare capacity when the US blockade began on April 13. Net inflow since has been running at one million to one point one million barrels per day because exports have collapsed to single digits of vessels while upstream production continues. The math is mechanical. Roughly twelve days of spare capacity. The calendar says that window closes this week.

NASHA is not a strategy. NASHA is what you do when you have run out of strategy.

A two-million-barrel floating storage vessel buys Iran approximately forty-eight hours of continued upstream production. After that, either the wells get shut in or the crude goes somewhere else. The parallel options being pursued, ship-to-ship transfers in the Riau Archipelago, AIS-dark transits, sanctioned VLCCs returning home through the blockade line, are not enough. Lloyd’s List Intelligence has tracked roughly twenty-six Iran-linked vessels evading since April 13. That cannot absorb a million barrels a day.

The wells will shut in. The question is which wells, for how long, and whether they come back.

The Asmari and Bangestan carbonate formations that sit under most of Iran’s giant southern fields are high-permeability, strong-water-drive systems. The Society of Petroleum Engineers literature on this specific reservoir class is unambiguous. Remove continuous pressure support for a prolonged shut-in and four damage mechanisms activate simultaneously: water coning upward through the fracture network, fines migration into pore throats, formation compaction under increased effective stress, and clay swelling under altered salinity and pH. The damage is not theoretical. It is documented. And it is measured in months to years of recoverable production capacity, not days.

Maleki and Gordon estimate three hundred to five hundred thousand barrels per day of permanent capacity loss if the current shut-in trajectory completes. That is a directional estimate, not a lab measurement, but the direction is not in dispute.

NASHA is the archaeological signature of the clock.

When a country with the world’s third-largest oil reserves reactivates a thirty-year-old retired tanker to float on top of its main export terminal and buy forty-eight hours of time, the institutional systems designed to absorb shocks have already failed. The insurance market, the shadow fleet, the diplomatic channels, and the reservoir physics are all converging on the same conclusion at different speeds, and NASHA is the one that shows up on satellite.

The market is pricing a ceasefire.

The Pentagon is pricing six months of mine clearance.

Iran just pulled a corpse out of the Persian Gulf and asked it to buy two days.

That is not how a reversible crisis looks. That is how a regime tells you, operationally, that it has run out of options between the blockade and the shut-in. The reservoir does not negotiate.

https://t.co/vLQh7ydMdk

[@amuse @amuse]

https://t.co/iL5GWe4Kjk

[@amuse @amuse]

https://t.co/U33o709biQ

[Greg Sealey @gsealey]

@Braves this is the opening week of the baseball season. When are you going to announce the Braves vision plans for the masses? Cable? Fubo? YouTube TV? How are we going to get the Braves on our televisions? It is time to make your announcements.

[Clay Travis @ClayTravis]

Iran has reportedly kidnapped the families of the Iranian women’s soccer team members who requested asylum & the women are now abandoning those claims and returning to the country to face torture or death. No prominent left wing American women’s soccer players have said a word.

[Greg Sealey @gsealey]

@AlTheBoss03 Chipper Jones

[Greg Sealey @gsealey]

@bluegeorgia @grok how many states issue Real ID cards?

[L A R R Y @LarryOConnor]

James Talarico, the Democrat nominee for the U.S. Senate race in Texas, has quietly removed the endorsement page from his campaign website. The page formerly featured a slew of endorsements from the most radical of Texas outlets and a wide-array of far-left organizations across the state.
https://t.co/PqlAtwPBv4

[Greg Sealey @gsealey]

@libsoftiktok @grok is this actually the CEO of United in this video?

[Greg Sealey @gsealey]

@ClayTravis @realDonaldTrump Restrict the unhinged use of the transfer portal. Limit eligibility to 4 to 5 years. And, probably the most bold of all, and probably will never happen, is to restructure all of college sports. Get rid of conferences as we know it. Realign based on location.

[Bill Melugin @BillMelugin_]

NEW: Sen. Kennedy (R-LA), who had contentious back and forth w/ Noem at hearing this week, says Trump was “mad as a murder hornet” that Noem claimed he approved $200 million ads contract.

Kennedy says he was offended by the contract amount, he called the WH and told them he planned to press her on it at the hearing and WH didn’t oppose.

[Greg Sealey @gsealey]

@michaeljknowles @realDailyWire The gospel of Thomas was never a part of the Bible. It was never part of the Cannon. It was never included for many reasons. It appears to be written many years later, after all the other gospels. And, its teachings, are heresy and directly opposite of the other gospels.

[Greg Sealey @gsealey]

@elainejgodfrey @jamestelarico, where in the book of Galatians does the apostle Paul refer to God as being non-binary? Cite the specific verses, please.

[Greg Sealey @gsealey]

@Teslaconomics @grok how does X money differ from what exist today already in the Apple wallet? Apple wallet has payments as well as a cash balance as well as a savings account.

[Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡ @shanaka86]

Iran built the most comprehensive civilian surveillance network in the Middle East. Cameras on every street. Facial recognition at universities. License plate readers that automatically fined women for removing their hijab in their own cars. A mobile app called Nazer that let citizens report uncovered women. Drones at beaches. The infrastructure that killed Mahsa Amini in September 2022 and crushed the Woman, Life, Freedom uprising that followed.

Israel hacked nearly all of it.

According to the Financial Times, citing two people familiar with the matter, nearly all of Tehran’s traffic cameras had been compromised for years. The footage was encrypted and transmitted to servers in Tel Aviv and southern Israel. One camera near Pasteur Street proved especially valuable. It was angled in such a way that Israeli analysts could see where members of Khamenei’s security detail parked their personal cars. Through that single camera angle, Israeli intelligence built files on the bodyguards’ home addresses, work schedules, commuting routes, and which senior officials they were assigned to protect.

Unit 8200 used algorithms to process billions of data points into what intelligence officers call a “pattern of life.” A person familiar with the process described it as “an assembly line with a single product: targets.”

“We knew Tehran like we know Jerusalem,” an Israeli intelligence official told the Financial Times. “And when you know a place as well as you know the street you grew up on, you notice a single thing that’s out of place.”

On February 28, when intelligence confirmed Khamenei would attend a morning meeting at his compound near Pasteur Street, the operation entered its final phase. Israel disrupted approximately 12 cellular antennas in the area, causing phones to appear “busy” when dialed. Khamenei’s security detail could not receive warnings. Israeli aircraft fired 30 precision munitions. The strike was carried out in daylight for tactical surprise.

Former Mossad official Sima Shine told the Financial Times that Israel’s strategic focus on Iran dates to a 2001 directive from Prime Minister Ariel Sharon. Twenty-five years of patient intelligence collection culminated in a single Saturday morning.

Here is the part that should stay with you.

The cameras Israel hacked were not military installations. They were the regime’s domestic surveillance apparatus. The same cameras that tracked women who removed their hijab. The same system that sent automated text messages to women in Isfahan accusing them of “improper veiling.” The same infrastructure the Guidance Patrol used to build digital dossiers on Iranian women and girls for the crime of showing their hair.

Israel turned the tools of the morality police into the tools of the regime’s destruction.

There is a viral claim that after the assassination, Mossad wiped the morality police’s databases on Iranian women. No Tier 1, 2, or 3 source confirms this. It traces to a single unverified social media post. I will not present it as fact.

But the verified reality is extraordinary enough. The regime built a surveillance state to control its own women. A foreign intelligence service co-opted that state to kill the man who ordered it built. The cameras that watched women became the cameras that watched Khamenei die.

That is poetic justice written in code.

https://t.co/ULBgEzZ3A8

[Trey Yingst @TreyYingst]

The Israelis just struck the meeting of the Iranian Supreme Council where officials were gathering to choose a new Supreme Leader, a senior Israeli official told Fox News.

"Israel struck while they were counting the votes for the appointment of the supreme leader."