IMO the last real altseason was 2021.
Other good periods:
Jan 2023 - March 2023
Oct 2023 - Jan 2024
Nov 2024 - Jan 2025
Yes, we've had lots of winners during these years, but nothing like it was back then where you could buy anything, close your eyes and you knew it went up only for weeks.
Just discovered opting for the $MET LP NFT could cost you 45% of your tokens at $1.1B FDV 😳
But wait... the fees might make it worth it?
Built a calculator that shows EXACTLY what happens to your MET at every price from $500M to $7.5B
https://t.co/HP2qYcHB0G
⬆️
As someone who thought the inevitability of this sort of wipe had been building for months, it was still shocking to see the severity and speed of it.
I had figured it would be an easy buy for “high quality” bags, and technically it was if you caught the severe dislocations at the bottom of alts. Talking ENA at $0.12, ATOM at $0.001, many other big alts up 2-4x quickly from bottom wicks.
But what really happened was, a lot of “stink bidders” filled and then got liquidated at the bottom. People with shorts got ADL’d all over the place, often times way before the bottom. All sorts of things stopped working (data feeds, some exchanges, market makers).
Once the bottom happened, the books were empty. I saw ENA at $0.14 on one venue and $0.35 on another. I started to bid with a combo of limits and semi-passive algos. The former got 0 fills and the latter filled around $0.33. average over 5 minutes despite price starting at $0.14. This happened on pretty much all alts, this is just one example. Truth is it was very hard to get fills near lows for size unless 1) you already had bids there + didn’t get liquidated from filling too much too early or 2) you got ADL’d on shorts
Fortunately, I wasn’t in a position to be liquidated anywhere, so avoided the worst. I was able to cover all of my short legs for the spreads I was running (some got ADL’d, rest just closed).
From here, could see all 3 outcomes playing out, in large part depending on Trump, macro, and exchange (in)solvency.
1. So many people got 0’d and run it back up turbo, max pain
2. We have to chop for a while to digest this— return to BTC.D
3. This is the start of the turn (stocks only down 3-4%), and enter a bear market. Also good for BTC.D
As a trader, I can’t not buy a crash like that. Those are the highest EV spots. Undecided on hold time. Often times we will bleed down and retest the wicks and set higher lows after the initial mechanical bounce is over. But that was far from a “normal crash”, that was the prototypical sh*t hitting the fan.
In any case, it’s a good time to clean up positions and return to things you genuinely want to own and hold, without leverage. I continue to hold mostly BTC with some smaller positions in a small number of alts I think can do well in the quarter(s) ahead.
I hope everyone is okay. If you lost, it’s only money that you can make again, and a valuable lesson on leverage/risk management that you will never forget. There is always another trade.
Dont Know.
I'm a bit disgusted by some of the recent launches in the space who have seem to forgotten that we went through the low float:high FDV games 18 months ago.
CEXs and MMs are starting to bend the knee again, after being more pragmatic over the last year.
Not a healthy trend for the industry and feels like we've gone backwards.
Not sure anything will change materially, but wanted to flag.
Last month, Rainbow approached Clanker about a potential acquisition.
After some discussions, we decided that it wasn’t the right fit and let them know last Thursday.
On Friday, Rainbow reached back out threatening to publish a public letter if we didn’t respond.
After we told them (again) that we wouldn't be going forward with the deal, they published the letter today without our consent. We are not excited about working at Rainbow, especially after how we were treated, and don’t plan to continue the conversations.
clank clank
"worst cycle ever, no true altszn" - story about fragmented liquidity, Solana trenchers and human greed;
you wanted faster execution, lower fees and fun experience - Solana brought that to the table, giving birth to the first efficient onchain 'coin-sino', whilst also kick-starting the dispersion issue. that's okay, as 'slow and expensive' ETH has moved away towards institutional yield, SoV and RWA layer. I'm sure a little dispersion never hurt anybody, especially if we can all make more money.
you weren't satisfied.
you wanted even earlier & faster entries, more memetics, more toys you play with for a day and discard them like street prostitutes - Pumpfun gave you exactly that. dilution quickly went from "bad" to "what the fuck". you started aping coins mere seconds after launch. "this could run". run? where? unemployment center?
have we had enough? not even close.
you developed bots, scripts, trackers, AI tools to increase efficiency, speed and execution - at what cost? more freedom to ape into more coins. more incentives for serial ruggers, I mean devs, sorry, to automate coin launches at the expense of ~99%.
please daddy, fragment the liquidity even further!
suffice to say, whilst damaging crypto for years to come, barely anyone has turned profit. "Data from Dune reveals that 99.6% of https://t.co/zD0GsQ6GeV traders have yet to achieve more than $10,000 in realized profits."
pathetic. you've shot yourself in the foot. quite literally.
as if the situation wasn't dire enough, this all brought the attention of outsiders. B-tier celebrities all scrambled to launch their own token, only to extract even more from already damaged participants.
then it all broke in January 2025. Trump. Melania. final nail in the coffin. they've heard the lengths of which you absolute fucking degenerates will go to just to turn profit. they launched their own token, mere days before inauguration. literal crime. whilst you hear many stories of people acquiring generational wealth, you forget this is a zero-sum game. who was on the other side of those trades?
while everyone screamed "this surely sparks the beginning of Solana casino!" - euthanasia rollercoaster officially began. that was it. no, really , statistically that was the top of trenches. slow erosion begins.
desperate, clinging onto hopes and dreams of "just one 100x", most failed to realize the game has always been rigged against their favor. you have better odds in an actual casino. no, really, you statistically do.
9 months later, as participants have [somewhat] awoken themselves from the false dream, everything that's left on the rollercoaster today are 'metas'. we went from thousands of coins/day, to once a month metas that saturate faster than Gainzy can press the sell button to dump on his followers.
what are we left with? streamer coins? capital markets? 1.) What
.. the fuck is even that?
and whilst many would consider such a post, or even sentiment to be a "bottom signal" [lol, lmao even], they forget what awaits at the end of euthanasia rollercoaster - "The Euthanasia Coaster is a hypothetical steel roller coaster and euthanasia device designed with the sole purpose of killing its passengers".
only death can pay for life.
only after dying are we truly free.
rebirth.
this won't change until regulations tighten up the space - allowing money to concentrate, instead of dilute.
it will take years for the cleanse.
How to farm the upcoming $BASE airdrop 🧵
Everyone’s talking about it. Nobody knows the full playbook.
But if you’re trying to be early, here’s what you might need to know… 👇
InfoFi is responsible for the destruction of Crypto Twitter
Turns out giving $50M in rewards to "content creators" was a bad idea
Now we're stuck with bot farms that make up of ~75% my replies and DMs
I'm in disbelief that companies are still paying $1M+/mo for InfoFi services
CT daily right now
BTC -2% - "getting 2021 top vibes, remember to pay yourself, cash out some profits, could be the start of the bear market"
BTC +2% - "if you arent in (insert $27K marketcap shitter) you are NGMI, stay broke!"
- Rhythm launch two days ago
- Avax role announcement yesterday
- Xeet launch today
- Magic Eden major news soon
Working with all four of these companies makes me incredibly bullish for the future of Crypto
• first cycle where we have apps making meaningful revenue that could not be directly tied to majors PA (hype, pump, ethena, maybe plasma& other tether L1s?)
• ease of access for crypto accelerating at extreme pace re: regulatory improvements & admin's bullishness
• btc/gold ratio still 10x difference
• economic outlook much better than setup in 2022 w/ aggro rate hikes to combat runaway inflation
• highest % chance for success w/ crypto social & if traction stays would drive revenue not tied to majors pa (zora, time, fantasy top)
• stablecoin bill & more stablecoins coming on chain will increase onchain speculation by a meaningful amount
• notable infra improvements coming soon w/ firedancer on sol, megaeth rollup, & others
• robinhood, stripe, tether, circle all huge companies building new L1s & L2s that may be able to add net new users to speculate onchain
Last cycle it was obvious to most smart traders that LUNA would collapse, however what was important was getting smart on it to time it as a lot of people got crushed shorting it too early. This was a trade of maximum opportunity
Same thing is happening with DATs/MSTR this cycle
One thing people don’t realize is playing @fantasy_top_ makes you a better crypto trader, especially if you are new to the scene.
The game literally ranks CT weekly.
By being well versed on @fantasy_top_ hero performance, you will get a feel of which CT accounts are trending. This will directly inform you which sectors are hot, too hot, or falling off.
@fantasy_top_ covers all aspects of CT:
Memecoiners, ETH bulls, BTC bulls, SOL bulls, various founders, NFT traders etc. Their @fantasy_top_ score can literally be translated into token performance.
Get on @fantasy_top_ now if you are new to crypto. Even if you are not, there is still a lot you can learn from tracking the 178 heroes listed there.
I feel like success within crypto is about finding whatever edge you may have, and hitting it over and over.
I recognised pretty early I don’t have the heart, patience or constitution to be a trader so picked up the pen.
You can build something, work for a project, farm airdrops, build a social media account, and so much more.
So many people from the outside think the only route to success is through a single 1,000x lick on a memecoin.
Carve your own path and then stick in your lane.
I’ve never actually played @fantasy_top_ but they made me a hero which is cool and it’s actually really impressive they’re still building and iterating and curating community, especially given how much of a fiasco blast was. Seems good