guilder

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[guilder @guilder1252]

@ThePrimeagen I'm not surprised, they're putting a hell of a lot of money into pro/max subscriptions. In claude-code they can still optimize this cost-wise somehow. Scary to think what happens when they need to be profitable and how much everything will cost.

[guilder @guilder1252]

@dhh @zigmoo For me AI agents is rails scaffold generator moment. A tool to quickly transform idea into working prototypes.

[guilder @guilder1252]

@rafalhubert No bo tam nie płynie demokratyczna ropa

[guilder @guilder1252]

@yanosikpl planujecie jakąś opcje w apce aby omijać drogi gdzie kamery będą sprawdzać czy auto spełnia wymogi SCT?

[guilder @guilder1252]

@rafalhubert @NawrockiKn Popularne jest teraz degustowanie kebaba, albo zrób live stream z gry w pasjansa

[guilder @guilder1252]

@MarekFanatyk Sprawdzałeś kosz sejmowy?

[guilder @guilder1252]

@MrMireaux @EnemyMen Lol, tyle napierdalasz o elektrykach że myślałem że jesteś dilerem aut elektrycznych

[guilder @guilder1252]

@Miszalski_ @PKP_SA Ciekawe kto dostał w łapę za to

[guilder @guilder1252]

@xai @krishgarg @yuviecodes @lohanipravin fuck you

[guilder @guilder1252]

@meteo_expert to smog?

[guilder @guilder1252]

@HedgieMarkets I just want to point that why they SEND FUCKING PERSONAL DATA TO MIXPANEL.

[Dr_Gingerballs @Dr_Gingerballs]

It's fascinating the amount of pushback you get from anyone by claiming that something as simple as nominal costs per capita is a measure of inflation. It's like kicking a puppy. How could you say something so extreme! And yet it's the purest measure of inflation we have, and I would argue the best.

I can think back to my life in 2014. Finally making real money, and got to afford all of the things I wanted. House, family, cars, vacations, etc. Back then the PCE per capita was $37,154. Fast forward to 2024 and the PCE per capita is $58,481. So in ten years the cost of living rose 57%. That's 4.6% per year.

What exactly has gotten better for the vast majority of people in that time? TVs are a couple inches thinner? I can buy a laptop with 1 GHz faster clockspeed that's eaten up by bloatware? I can play wordle on the toilet?

In that same time period, the "real" numbers say inflation was only 33%, or 2.9% per year. Still too high (weighted to recent years), but more palatable. But what exactly has changed, how has everyone's work output improved to justify this adjustment? For most people life is about the same, everything just costs more.

This is why after years of looking at this data, I have resorted to simply using nominal PCE per capita as my measure of inflation. And so should you. If you aren't getting a raise of 4.6% per year, you are falling behind, and no amount of "hedonic" adjustments for doubling the perforations on paper towels will change that.

In fact, many people would argue that the world has gotten worse, as extractive monopolies poke and prod us for more pennies, seeing how much they can torture us before we break. Even technology, the thing everyone points to as the reason we are so much more "productive," has clearly gotten worse. Does anyone believe that healthcare costs per person went down in 2023? Did yours? Mine didn't.

Am I saying the poverty floor is $140,000? Hell no. But what I am saying is that "real" adjustments to nominal measurements are not reliable. They are arbitrary, and when very wrong (like they are now and have been for some time), they create the environment we are in now, where economists go to their broken models and say the world is great, while the average person is ready to burn the world down by electing Trump twice in 8 years to sow chaos.

Every economist is a theory in search of a reality. Choose reality. And what reality is saying is that for the last 10 years the cost of living has climbed 4.6% per year. Our world economies are printing too much money, which is concentrating at the top and eroding your wages. Wake the fuck up.

What's the point of this rant? To let normal folks know they aren't crazy. That someone who understands all of the dirty nuances of measuring complex systems is telling you that you aren't crazy. It's harder to get by. Your money isn't going as far as it used to. You are getting fucked and this is precisely how.

\rant.

Now to my trader folks, wut do? Ignore all of this. Until the Fed meme is dismantled, everyone will trade the Fed meme. The system demands that official inflation metrics return to target, and so they will. And if the Feds start buying assets in size you ignore how overvalued you think everything is and you hold your nose and buy. But I'm still willing to bet that things are going to get much worse before we feel the effects of money printing, because the Fed is a destabilizing force, not a stabilizing one.

[guilder @guilder1252]

@vonderleyen No is not

[guilder @guilder1252]

@zametr Jezu Maria wyciągnij to do funkcji

[guilder @guilder1252]

@prywatnik @business Jak ktoś głębiej popatrzy to zauważy że tyle ile giganci zwalniają w polsce to zatrudniają podobną albo większą ilość w indiach.

[guilder @guilder1252]

@IceSolst because it works?

[guilder @guilder1252]

Visual Basic

[Microsoft @Microsoft]

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[guilder @guilder1252]

@vonderleyen So prices are going up

[guilder @guilder1252]

@rafalhubert Dawno nie oglądałem filmu Pojutrze

[Pavan Davuluri @pavandavuluri]

Windows is evolving into an agentic OS, connecting devices, cloud, and AI to unlock intelligent productivity and secure work anywhere. Join us at #MSIgnite to see how frontier firms are transforming with Windows and what’s next for the platform. We can’t wait to show you! https://t.co/g6yLUtZajH