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There are 50 days until 2027. Sit down with your spouse tonight and ask:
- What do we want 2027 to look like?
- What does financial peace actually look like for us?
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Sources:
tastytrade DXLink (sandbox and dry-run): https://t.co/q9vwtB61Kc
Market-data streaming: https://t.co/tOq8fkHYtP
tastytrade API Developer Series Ep 2 by tastylive: https://t.co/SUZBAA5hQI
Playlist: https://t.co/RPnQ8Y2Hfy
@sperezintexas Useful table. I'd add one column: the largest move in the last 8 reports, not just the average. A short straddle priced at 2x the average move can still lose big on the one quarter that blew past it. Wings cap that quarter.
@OptionEdgeHQ One check that cools FOMO fast: write the assignment cost before you pick the strike. (Strike - credit) x 100 is what you'd pay for the shares per contract. If that number makes you flinch, the strike is too close or the size is too big.
@mrtoptick Quick math on that one: max loss is (5 - 1.31) x 100 = $369 per spread. If every trade ended at full win or full loss, you'd need to win 3.69 / 5 = 73.8% just to break even before fees. A ~74% POP sits right on that line, so exits and fees decide it.
@samchueng Fee breaker is the right idea. One thing worth showing beside it: fees as a share of the credit. XSP is 1/10 the size of SPX, but per-contract fees aren't 1/10, so the same four-leg condor gives up a much bigger slice of its credit to fees on XSP.
Version 1:
1. Accept only a 1-lot, same-expiration put credit vertical.
2. Max loss = (width - credit) × 100. Breakeven = short strike - credit. Fees excluded.
3. Compare max loss with tastytrade's dry-run buying power.
Mismatch or stale quote: held for your OK.
$100 credit. $400 at risk. Breakeven 749.
Saturday's XSP example: sell the 750 put, buy the 745 put, $1.00 credit.
XSP Check is a Grok Bot that checks those three numbers against tastytrade's dry run. It can't place orders.
Template: https://t.co/pmZBgAHUqa
At a per-trade Sharpe of 0.10, a 20-trade 0DTE backtest has a t-stat of just 0.45.
That's indistinguishable from noise. Run this check before you trust any SPX or XSP iron condor backtest a bot hands you.
Lo (2002) gives the standard error of a Sharpe ratio; for small Sharpes that works out to t ≈ Sharpe × √(number of trades).
Example only: per-trade Sharpe of 0.10, one trade a day.
1. 20 trades: 0.10 × √20 = t of 0.45
2. 252 trades (about 1 year): 0.10 × √252 = t of 1.59
3. Trades needed to reach t = 2: (2 ÷ 0.10)² = 400
A month of results can't separate skill from luck. At that Sharpe, even a full year falls short.
In Lo's hedge-fund example, serial correlation overstated annual Sharpe by as much as 65%. Check that before you scale anything up.