Much of the problem with analysing the “dark fleet” is definitional. Most of what you see is the dark fleet being defined as any tanker that carried a naughty cargo during the past 2-3 years.
Under this approach, the dark fleet appears quite large, as with this S&P Platts infographic. Take the 93 VLs and 30 Sx putatively in the Iranian trade. Even accounting for massive waiting time for STS operations, payment delays and discharge delays, this number of vessels could move over 3 mbpd of Iranian crude and condensate – twice the observed volume of current exports.
So, this begs the question of just how large is the role of grey fleet tourists in these trades?
Related analytical questions include:
How unproductive is the dark fleet? (measured in tonne-miles/dwt)
What is the utilisation of the dark fleet? (How much waiting time between cargoes? Level of idle tonnage?)
What has been (will be) the role of floating storage on utilisations, by reducing the dark operating fleet?
And no, your favourite sell side and shipbroker research teams are not even remotely considering these issues, since it is not in their best interests.
#oott #tankers $FRO $DHT $INSW $ECO $TNK $TEN
🌾 Russian Wheat Market Update - October 2024 🌾
Here's a quick breakdown!
1. Production Decline
Russia’s wheat production for 2024/25 is forecasted to drop significantly—down from 92.8 million tons last year to 82.7 million tons. The Urals and Siberia regions are hit hardest by late-season rain. 🌧️ 🌾
2. Exports Still Strong,💪 But...
Despite lower production, Russian wheat exports surged to record levels in August and remained high in September. But this pace could cause stock depletion by the end of the marketing year. Exports are expected to reach 44.8 million tons, a decline from last year's 54 million tons.
3. Stock Shortage Incoming⚠️
Russia’s wheat stocks are projected to drop to just 9 million tons by June 2025—nearly half of last year’s 17.6 million tons. This tightens global supply, especially towards the end of the season.
4. Rising Prices🚀
Prices are climbing. Russian wheat with 12.5% pro is already at $230+ per meric ton
5. 2025 Concerns🌱
Looking ahead, dry conditions during winter wheat sowing could impact the 2025 harvest. If this continues, we may see even lower production next year.🌱
6. Global Impact🌍
Russia’s role in global wheat trade remains strong, but the reduced availability from both #Russia and #Ukraine means the world market is entering its tightest phase since 2007/08.
⚡️Key takeaway:
Watch for rising prices and potential supply shortages as Russia continues exporting at a high pace. Tight stocks could squeeze global supply, and dry conditions may impact the 2025 outlook further!⚡️
#oatt #agtwitter #wheat #Russia
VIDEO: The historic 135.94-metres motor yacht Savarona, which hosted modern Türkiye founder Mustafa Kemal Atatürk in the final years of his life, is back on the water after undergoing a refit
🎥 Watch now: https://t.co/xMXjdJrhhw
Why does Paris look the way it does?
Well, until the year 1853 it was a diseased and overcrowded Medieval city — then the biggest urban renovation in history was announced.
This is the story of how Paris was transformed into the world's most popular city...
“With most local power now entrusted to the political opposition by voters, Turkey is no longer devoid of options,” Istanbul’s mayor argues in a guest essay. “Its trajectory is firmly set towards democracy again” https://t.co/tBPoQnksMl 👇
Dampskibsselskabet Norden A/S (OTCMKTS:DPBSF) vs. Star Bulk Carriers (NASDAQ:SBLK) Critical Analysis $SBLK https://t.co/RJpa72rM9k @WatchListN aracılığıyla