Halvor Nilsen 🇺🇦📎

Interested in geopolitics, security and military issues. Generally wants to know the meaning of life, the universe and everything.

[Nicholas Drummond @nicholadrummond]

Sorry, but this needs to be said again and again, until it is fully understood and accepted:
🇷🇺 The Russian Army has been fought to a standstill in Ukraine - 1.4 million casualties with about 400K deaths. The sheer scale of human and equipment losses is staggering.
🇷🇺 It means Russia is not going to precipitate a second war anytime soon. However, the Russian economy has proved to be much stronger and more resilient than Western analysts expected. Military spending has sustained growth even if inflation is high and energy export income has fallen.
🇷🇺 It is entirely possible that a peace deal could be concluded within the next 12 months. Any such agreement will only be signed off by Putin if it gifts him a large chunk of Ukraine. This will allow him to declare victory and remain in power.
🇷🇺 When the conflict with Ukraine ends, Russia will not immediately revert to a non-wartime economy. Peace will give Putin a much needed breathing space which he will use to rearm and retrain his battered army. It is likely to take a decade before Russia regains any credible military strength while the economy recovers — and it is entirely possible that China will support Russia’s rearmament process. So we could see a Russian military resurgence within 5 years. This is the risk.
🇷🇺 Whatever happens, there is no inexorable path to war with Russia. But if we do nothing, if we refuse to bolster our defences when time is on our side, it’s the same as leaving the door unlocked — we will invite aggression, because Putin is strategically ambitious and opportunistic.
🇷🇺 A strong Europe, fully prepared, with potent and flexible capabilities, plus resilient and scalable economic production, would definitely deter aggression, just as NATO’s Cold War presence in Europe kept the peace for almost half a century.
🇬🇧 So,we have a straightforward binary choice: deter aggression through strength. Invite aggression through weakness. I do not want to send my children to fight a war that could have been be avoided. If you are a parent, I hope you will agree.

[Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський @ZelenskyyUa]

A course of action has been approved – to increase the financial sustainability of our defense and ensure the continued transformation of the Ukrainian Army.

First – pay. We have the resources to increase pay in the military. The minimum will be 30,000 hryvnias in rear areas. The more combat missions, the higher the level of pay. There will be new, significantly stronger contracts for infantry personnel. On average, 300,000 hryvnias on the front line. Everything depends on our Ukrainian infantryman.

The contracts will be structured to ensure clarity: contract terms of 10, 14, and 24 months with clear conditions – meaning clear temporary discharge. Guaranteed terms – and real temporary discharge. In addition, payments for Ukrainian combat commanders will be increased, and this should create a positive incentive to preserve command experience within the Army.

Second, I am grateful to all the volunteers from other countries who are fighting for freedom in Ukraine. I have instructed that significantly more opportunities be opened for foreign volunteers to join the Ukrainian Army. There will be additional recruitment mechanisms to support this.

Third, further simplification of transfers for warriors, more opportunities to advance within the Army, and more positive incentives to join the defense.
I expect every element of the changes now being implemented to show its effectiveness this summer. The Ministry of Defense will present the details of the decisions.

[Takeshi Kovacs @PrzemekShura]

Piękny poranek zaczyna się nie od kawy, ale od zdjęcia całej zniszczonej kolumny 50 ciężarówek z paliwem i amunicją – tak, to te ciężarówki, które próbowały przedostać się przez most pod Armiańskiem na Krym.

Ukraińskie siły (1. Pułk Szturmowy, 475. Pułk CODE 9.2 i SBU Alfa) przygotowały podręcznikową zasadzkę na Krymie. Po odcięciu mostu w Chonharze, Rosjanie przekierowali transporty amunicji i paliwa na trasę przez Armiańsk.
Ukraińcy tylko na to czekali. W nocy precyzyjne uderzenia systemów FirePoint zniszczyły most oraz zdemolowały całą, liczącą blisko 50 ciężarówek kolumnę zaopatrzeniową, zmierzającą na front w kierunku Hulajpoła. Szlak logistyczny rosjan jest sparaliżowany.

[Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський @ZelenskyyUa]

Today, for the first time, we mark the Day of the Unmanned Systems Forces, and from now on, each year, June 11 will be a day of our gratitude to the warriors of the Unmanned Systems Forces.

Modern warfare can no longer be imagined without drones, and Ukrainian unmanned systems are operating successfully at different levels: from carrying out missions on the frontline to striking important enemy facilities hundreds of kilometers deep inside its territory. All of this is being documented, and it is thanks to the precision and skill of our operators that Russia’s losses have long exceeded 30,000 killed and wounded per month.

I thank each and every person serving in the Unmanned Systems Forces, developing Ukrainian technologies, and working for the sake of our advantage on the battlefield. Thank you to everyone who is working to reduce Russia’s capabilities and strengthen our security.

[Kate from Kharkiv @BohuslavskaKate]

In Moscow, for the first time in 23 years, the concert on Red Square for Russia Day has been canceled.

Probably because Zelenskyy didn't allow this one 😁

[Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський @ZelenskyyUa]

I met with President of Finland @alexstubb and Prime Minister of Norway @jonasgahrstore. I informed them about contacts at the leaders’ level in the E3–Ukraine format as well as our contacts with the American side.

Right now, all our partners note that Ukraine’s positions on the frontline are significantly stronger, and therefore the approaches in diplomacy, which we are now working to reinvigorate, must be based precisely on this. Unfortunately, Russia is trying to compensate for its enormous losses on the battlefield with strikes on our cities and communities, on civilian infrastructure. That is why air defense missiles are our top priority. And we discussed how to secure additional supplies for Ukraine right now, as well as efforts to develop a European anti-ballistic missile system.

I am grateful to Alex and Jonas, and to the people of Finland and Norway, for their steadfast assistance and support. We appreciate that our agreements are being implemented.

[Saul Sadka @Saul_Sadka]

Lebanon situation update:

So it seemed for a while that the Israelis would be satisfied with simply occupying a relatively thin buffer zone along the Israeli northern border inside Lebanon, where the area was essentially cleared of any potential hostile activity to protect their civilians.

However, the advent of fiber-optic drone warfare in the region—which frankly was inevitable and should have been better predicted by the IDF, and has cost the lives of around 10 IDF fighters in the area—has probably made that impossible.

What it means is that Israel is going to be forced deeper into Lebanon. It will have to create a deeper buffer zone, and that buffer zone will probably have to extend all the way through the Shia countryside up toward the southern end of the city of Sidon.
The Israeli army is going to have to hope that after it has completed battling through the entire Shia region of South Lebanon, the Christian, Sunni, and Druze villages it then faces will prevent infiltration by Hezbollah forces.

So far, that does seem to be the case. Hezbollah doesn’t seem to have any kind of activity coming out of non-Shia villages. They depend on that population for sustenance and cover. Any attempt to infiltrate Christian, Sunni, or Druze villages will likely lead to them getting ratted out by locals to the IDF, followed by pinpoint strikes.

If Israel reaches that line in the future, that should be enough, and it should then be able to sit back.

The city of Nabatieh, which the IDF is currently on the outskirts of, is by far the most important remaining Hezbollah stronghold in South Lebanon. Control of Nabatieh is critical, since all the roads not already under Israeli control from Hezbollah’s northern stronghold in the Beqaa Valley go through Nabatieh. It divides Hezbollah in the south from any prospect of reinforcement.

Once that falls, it could be that the villages in the surrounding area will see their fate as inevitable, and they will also throw out the Hezbollah fighters. That’s possible, and it would certainly save a lot of bloodshed on both sides, as well as a lot of destruction for those villagers.

All in all, though, the inevitability is that Hezbollah in southern Lebanon is doomed. The Iranians, with their intervention after the Israeli attack on Beirut, tried to link together the Iranian war between the U.S. and Israel on the one hand, and the IRGC on the other, with the fight against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon.

This was a desperate and risky attempt to save Nabatieh. It did not work because they failed to cause any serious harm to Israel and sustained very heavy damage from the Israeli retaliation, with clear U.S. approval despite the messaging, setting up Israel as their attack dog—their bad cop in the negotiations.

They simply don’t have the power. They don’t have the deterrence ability even to protect their proxies, just as their proxies proved unable to defend them when they were attacked. So those two things have been decoupled, and Israel continues fighting the Iranian threats, which turned out to be not that threatening.

That fundamentally was the problem: if you want to run a proxy campaign, you need to be strong. You need deterrence, and the IRGC simply doesn’t have that level of deterrence.

[Kaja Kallas @kajakallas]

Brick by brick, we are collapsing the foundations of Russia's war economy.

Today, we are presenting our proposals for a 21st sanctions package against Russia.

This includes a temporary freeze of the Russian oil price cap and designations of institutions used by Moscow to generate revenues and circumvent EU sanctions.

It will target banks, weapons manufacturers, oil traders, refineries, and crypto operators in third countries.

[Joni Askola @joni_askola]

The current Ukrainian superiority in mid-range drone warfare is a brilliant advantage that comes with an expiration date.

Failing to prepare for the day Russia matches this capability guarantees a catastrophic collapse of front line logistics for Ukraine.

Ukraine is rightfully capitalizing on its drone edge to annihilate Russian transport networks in occupied zones. This structural disruption is hurting Russian logistics across the board. The problem is that the Kremlin is pouring massive resources into catching up, meaning this window of superiority will eventually close.

When Russia deploys AI-enhanced mid-range strike drones at scale, any logistical movement within 100 kilometers of the front line faces destruction (on both sides). To survive, Ukraine must prepare immediately by layering multiple defensive measures. Securing future supply lines means installing more road nets, creating more specialized anti-drone drone units, adding cages to transport vehicles, shifting to logistical UGVs, and even building tunnels (when possible).

This situation is a harsh wake-up call for Europe as well. Western doctrine relies heavily on the assumption that logistics remain somewhat safe beyond conventional artillery range. This is a dangerous misconception that modern drone warfare is permanently erasing, and European nations must watch and learn before it is too late

[Aimen Dean @AimenDean]

My Two Cents/Shekels/Rials:

Some senior GCC figures believe the public disagreements between Trump and Netanyahu are largely political theater rather than evidence of a genuine strategic split.

According to this view, Trump became trapped during earlier negotiations when Iranian negotiators, with support from Pakistani mediators, insisted that any broader agreement include a ceasefire involving Hezbollah.
This effectively linked the Iranian nuclear and regional negotiations to Hezbollah’s status and role in Lebanon.

From the Israeli and many GCC perspectives, this was problematic because it risked granting Hezbollah a degree of political and diplomatic legitimacy.

The central argument is that Hezbollah is not a sovereign state actor but an armed non-state organization that operates outside the authority of the Lebanese state.

Trump’s primary objectives were reportedly focused on issues such as:

Iran’s nuclear program
Security in the Strait of Hormuz
Regional stability
Sanctions and frozen assets

As negotiations progressed, Hezbollah increasingly became intertwined with the broader Iran discussions, creating frustration among those who wanted the two tracks separated.

The emerging strategy, according to this interpretation, is to force a clear distinction between:

The “Iran track” (nuclear, sanctions, regional security)

The “Lebanon/Hezbollah track” (Israel’s conflict with Hezbollah)

Under this logic, Israel’s military actions against Hezbollah should be viewed as part of its conflict with Hezbollah rather than part of any broader U.S.-Iran negotiation.

If Iran chooses to intervene militarily in defense of Hezbollah, it does so by choice rather than necessity, thereby assuming responsibility for any escalation.

This approach allows Washington to argue:
“We are negotiating with Iran regarding Iran.”
“Israel is dealing with Hezbollah.”
“The two issues should not automatically be linked.”

Trump could then maintain that he attempted to restrain Israel but cannot dictate every Israeli military decision, particularly when Hezbollah remains engaged in hostilities.

In this interpretation, the recent escalation is not necessarily a collapse of diplomacy but rather part of a pressure campaign intended to force Tehran to accept the separation of the Iranian and Lebanese files.

The underlying message to Iran would be:

Accept that Hezbollah is a separate issue from negotiations over Iran itself; or
Continue linking the two and risk further military escalation.

The ultimate objective is to prevent any diplomatic outcome that implicitly recognizes or legitimizes Hezbollah’s military role as an extension of Iranian regional influence.

Bottom line: This interpretation views the current tensions not as a breakdown in negotiations, but as a deliberate effort to decouple the Iran dossier from the Hezbollah dossier, forcing Tehran to choose whether it wants to negotiate on Iran’s interests alone or continue tying its position to Hezbollah’s fate.

[Halvor Nilsen 🇺🇦📎 @halvorni]

https://t.co/3xv0rz2llY

[Open Source Intel @Osint613]

NEW 🔴

IRGC: "Waves of missiles and drones will continue to be launched around the clock for the next seven days until the enemy is deterred and ceases its crimes."

[Eyal Ofer אייל עופר @Eyalo365]

In 2025 - IDF tried from air.
But it did not work. See photos

Now:

IDF Uncovers and Destroys Hezbollah’s Massive Underground Terror City Beneath the Beaufort Ridge

In a groundbreaking operation codenamed “Marom Harim,” the IDF has completed the total destruction of one of Hezbollah’s most ambitious underground projects in southern Lebanon — a vast, multi-level tunnel network and command complex hidden directly under the Beaufort ridge and the Ali Taher mountain range.This is the same strategic high ground that has defined Israeli military history for decades.

In 2025, the air force repeatedly struck Hezbollah’s surface infrastructure as the group tried to rebuild in violation of ceasefire agreements.

At the time, those strikes seemed decisive. It turns out they were only the beginning.What the troops actually found — and eliminated — was far more dangerous: an enormous subterranean city engineered for war.

Built over years in total secrecy, the complex served as the forward headquarters and fire-control hub for Hezbollah’s Nasr unit. From deep inside the mountain, the group planned and prepared coordinated rocket and ground attacks on communities in Israel’s Galilee panhandle.

The soldiers who entered and cleared this classified emergency compound belonged to the Golani Scouts. Their mission was to finish the job: locate every tunnel and bunker, confirm the full scale of the threat, and ensure it could never be used again.

Prime Minister’s description captured the moment: “They seized the Beaufort ridge — and discovered a huge underground infrastructure there.”The network was so extensive and well-protected that previous bunker-buster strikes had barely scratched it. To erase years of Hezbollah’s ant-like construction work, the IDF had to bring in hundreds of kilograms of explosives. What once loomed as a constant overhead threat to northern Israeli communities has now been permanently buried beneath the mountain.For anyone who wondered why the IDF made the strategic decision to capture and hold the Beaufort area — this is the answer.

Mission accomplished. The north is safer.

[David Collier @mishtal]

BREAKING: Iran has just restarted the war with Israel.

Ballistic missile attack.

Expect very little coverage from our media - and lots of putting it in the context of an "Iranian response"...

Until Israel fights back...

Then our media will pretend Israel is the bad guy.

[Halvor Nilsen 🇺🇦📎 @halvorni]

@sjakhaaheim @GeViOz Lurer på om ikke de spydene er levert av Israel…🤔

[Mor Edge Insight @MorEdge_Insight]

Even Arab leaders admit it.

Everyone is sharing the Bill Clinton clip where he describes how Yasser Arafat rejected a generous peace offer at Camp David that would have given the Palestinians a state on 96 percent of the West Bank, land swaps, and a capital in East Jerusalem. Clinton says Arafat lied to him and that the Palestinian leadership never actually wanted a two-state solution. They wanted to destroy Israel. It’s a video often shared by people like @VividProwess, and it’s an important one for people to see.

Of course, critics immediately dismiss it. They claim Clinton is biased or he’s pro-Israel. They’ll tell you that you cannot trust the American perspective.

Ok, so let us set that aside.

Now watch this.

In this powerful interview, former Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, a major Arab leader who was directly involved in negotiations, says exactly the same thing from the Arab side. He talks about the Mena House Conference in Cairo as well as the Camp David negotiations of 1978. All failed because of the Palestinians repeatedly rejecting any offer. The Oslo accords were signed but because Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad were not involved, they derailed the accords and any chance for peace by initiating 4 years of terrorist suicide attacks in Israel. Then came the second Camp David negotiations in 2000 which Arafat agreed to, then rejected and instead initiated the Second Intifada.

Mubarak explains how the Palestinians refused to even participate in the Mena House conference of 1977. He describes repeated opportunities they were given, including a detailed document that called for Israeli withdrawal from the Samaria, Judea and Gaza, security arrangements during a transitional period, and other major concessions. The Israelis were willing to negotiate on difficult issues like who would control security. The Palestinians, according to Mubarak, kept saying no and wasting chance after chance.

He speaks with clear frustration about how for decades the Palestinian side has rejected peace initiatives and realistic compromises.

The video further shows footage from the PLO representative in 1977, as well as old footage of Egyptian president Sadat who was involved in the Mena House and first Camp David negotiations of 1978.

This perhaps is far more impactful than Clinton’s account because it is not a Western or Israeli voice. It is prominent Arab leaders who lived the negotiations, who represented the broader Arab world, and who had zero incentive to defend Israel.

When leaders from both sides of the table describe the same pattern of Palestinian rejectionism and violence, it becomes much harder to dismiss as bias.

The pattern is clear across decades and across different voices… generous offers, repeated refusals, and continued demands for everything while giving nothing in return.

This is not ancient history. It is the core reason the conflict continues today.

If you value the truth, please share.

[Institute for the Study of War @TheStudyofWar]

NEW: Russian President Vladimir Putin rejected Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s offer to negotiate an end to the war and reiterated the Kremlin’s commitment to fulfilling its war goals. Putin also reiterated his belief that Russian forces’ military victory is inevitable, despite available data indicating otherwise.

Other Key Takeaways:

Putin’s claims about the battlefield are incompatible with available evidence and suggest that the Russian military command is not providing Putin accurate intelligence about the reality of Russian battlefield performance. Russian advances have largely stagnated while Ukrainian forces have achieved some tactical successes in 2026.

Russian officials, including Putin, are again leaning on the lack of clear information about the August 2025 Alaska Summit to falsely portray Russia as willing to negotiate with Ukraine.

Putin also used his SPIEF remarks to posture economic strength, ignoring Russia’s economic realities from over four years of war.

Ukrainian forces are expanding their battlefield air interdiction (BAI) campaign to strike Russian naval vessels and railway infrastructure in occupied southern Ukraine and in the Sea of Azov.

Romanian and Ukrainian authorities reported that Russian electronic warfare (EW) systems caused a Ukrainian unmanned surface vehicle (USV) to enter Romanian territorial waters at the Port of Constanta on June 5.

Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Pokrovsk direction. Russian forces recently advanced in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area.

Ukrainian forces continue strikes against Russian military assets in border regions. Russian forces launched two cruise missiles and 216 drones toward Ukraine overnight.

[Captain Allen @CptAllenHistory]

There was no preemptive strike on Jordan.

The morning of June 5, 1967, Israel begged King Hussein to stay out of the war: if Jordan did not attack, Israel would not attack Jordan. If Jordan listened, the “West Bank” & the Old City of Jerusalem would still be in Arab hands today.

But Jordan didn’t listen.

Jordan had already mobilized 11 brigades on the border and invited Iraqi forces to join them. At 9 a.m., they began indiscriminate shelling of Jewish Jerusalem. Israel still held fire, hoping it was only symbolic support for Egypt.

At 12:30 p.m., Jordanian troops invaded and seized the UN headquarters in a key strategic position.

Only then did Israel respond.

Israel went to war against Egypt to prevent its own annihilation. It had no plans to recapture Judea and Samaria (the “West Bank”) or the Old City. Jordan forced its hand.

They f****d around.
They found out.

[Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський @ZelenskyyUa]

Open Letter
To the President of the Russian Federation
From the President of Ukraine

When you came to power in Russia more than 26 years ago, many people in Ukraine viewed you positively. That is how it was. But that is now in the past.
Now, the overwhelming majority of Ukrainians view it positively that our long-range drones paid a visit to the opening of your forum in St. Petersburg, covering a distance of more than 1,000 kilometers. As you know very well, that distance is not the limit of our capabilities.