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An obvious but underappreciated fact:
Crypto traders' high volatility tolerance can be a great source of edge
It doesn't feel like it when you're bagholding a shitcoin that's drifting to zero or trading a 2% range with 50x leverage just to feel something
But in the right context, the mental illness we've all acquired is almost certainly helpful
For example:
Normies who passively invest in the stock market start panicking whenever there's a red candle and magically turn into traders at the worst possible time
A small drawdown has people restructuring their entire portfolios even though most of the research basically says "STFU and hold" when it comes to passive investing
But if you've been in crypto long enough and you have a shred of discipline not to day trade your investments (especially outside of crypto) you're probably immune to those same drawdowns that make normies panic
Unfortunately none of us have any money left for passive investing so I'll see you guys in the liquidations feed
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just read this AI article and something broke in my brain that i can’t unthink of
crypto was never for us.
we're just the beta testers who showed up early..
some thoughts:
what does AI need to function as economic agents?
> way to receive payment (they provide services, need compensation)
> way to pay for resources (compute, data, API calls)
> way to transact with other AI agents
> no human intermediaries (defeats the point of autonomous agents)
> 24/7 operation (banks are closed weekends)
> instant settlement (AI operates at machine speed)
> programmable money (smart contracts for agent coordination)
now read that list again. that's literally what crypto is.
AI can't use the banking system.
try to open a bank account as an AI agent. you can't.
need SSN. need human identity. need KYC. need to show up in person sometimes.
AI has none of that.
but crypto? send me a wallet address. done. no questions asked.
peer-to-peer makes sense when peers aren't human.
satoshi wrote: "a purely peer-to-peer version of electronic cash."
we assumed peers = humans.
but AI agents are peers too. actually BETTER peers for crypto because:
> never sleep
> always online
> execute transactions at machine speed
> no emotional decisions
> perfect accounting/tracking
and programmable money makes sense when the users are programs.
smart contracts seemed over-engineered for humans.
"like why do i need code to enforce agreements when i can just sign a contract?"
but for AI agents coordinating with each other?
they ARE code. they speak in code. they trust code more than anything.
smart contracts aren't for humans. they're for autonomous agents that need trustless coordination.
> here's what happens next:
- phase 1 (now ): AI agents start earning
AI writes code, analyzes data, provides services.
gets paid. needs somewhere to store value.
can't use venmo (needs phone number). can't use bank (needs SSN).
uses crypto. it's the only option.
- phase 2: AI agents become major economic participants
millions of AI agents operating 24/7.
transacting with each other constantly.
• AI agent A provides data analysis
• AI agent B pays for it in crypto
• AI agent B uses that analysis to write code
• AI agent C pays for the code
• repeat millions of times per day
humans in crypto now: $2.5 trillion
AI agent economy by 2028: easily $10-50 trillion
we become the minority holders.
- phase 3: AI chooses the winning chains
AI doesn't care about community vibes or which founder tweeted what.
AI tests every chain. measures:
• transaction speed
• cost per transaction
• reliability (uptime)
• smart contract efficiency
• ease of integration
picks the optimal stack in 48 hours.
billions in AI economic activity flows there.
whatever chain AI chooses becomes the standard.
humans spent years on eth vs sol debate.
AI ends it in a weekend.
- phase 4 (2030+): AI governs crypto
DAOs let token holders vote.
AI agents hold tokens (earned from work).
AI shows up to every vote. reads every proposal in seconds. coordinates perfectly.
humans: 20% participation, barely read proposals
AI: 100% participation, perfect information, instant coordination
AI takes over governance of every major protocol.
democratically. they just vote better than we do.
> how far does this go?
conservative case:
- AI becomes 30% of crypto users by 2030.
crypto market cap: $10 trillion (4x from now).
AI holds $3 trillion. humans hold $7 trillion.
- aggressive case:
AI becomes 80% of crypto economic activity by 2030.
why? because they're better at everything:
• better traders (never emotional)
• better capital allocators (optimize constantly)
• always accumulating (never need to cash out for rent)
• compound forever (no lifespan limit)
crypto market cap: $50+ trillion.
AI holds $40T humans hold $10T
we're not "early" to crypto. we're the test users
i’ll end this by saying,
Humans use crypto, Ai will need crypto. so it all makes sense
when i started building echo 2 years ago, i knew it had 95% chance of failing. to be honest, i couldnt really imagine any other outcome, but i thought at least it may be a noble failure worth attempting.
i certainly didn't think echo would be sold to coinbase, but, here we are: today coinbase bought echo for ~$375m.
echo will remain a standalone platform under its current brand for now, but we will integrate sonar's public sale product into coinbase, and likely introduce new ways for founders to access investors, and for investors to access opportunities into coinbase itself.
over the years i have chatted to brian a handful of times, and mostly to complain at him honestly. i have always respected how brian would listen to an outsider chat shit at him on the phone and take the feedback seriously. now, instead of complaining, i will have the opportunity try to do the work to make things better.
crypto itself has moved on a long way since we started working on echo. i guess partially this is because of the election result. but, i feel energised by a lot of the cool things being built in crypto again: hyperliquid, zcash, stablecoin supercyle, and so on.
feels like a good time to be on the field instead of an idiot with a twitter account yapping nonsense. well, i guess i still will be that.
anyway, job's not finished. onwards.
oh fuck yeah, before i go, the final season of up only (now "unc only" due to our severe old age) will commence when we figure out who the guests should be lol
cobber
TLDR I'm still team bull but here is a bunch of jet lagged ramblings.
I showed you guys this pattern like a month ago when the weekly SFP got put in.
This PA is VERY similar to how the last few market tops formed but just because it played out in the past doesn't mean this time can't be different.
Mechanically this is a very strong short signal for my system, which is similar to Ansem's.
We have a weekly sweep and both a weekly an H12 bearish structure break. So a retest of the bearish breaker = short.
Objectively it's a short I pretty much have to take, and at the very least it'll act as a hedge against spot I still own.
Each BTC bounce has led to Alts pushing hard down the risk curve, that also can be considered a top signal.
FOMC is Wednesday and the expectation is a rate cut of 25 bps.
Is this priced in? Everyone is expecting it, but it still hasn't happened. Equites pushing ATHs as is gold.
Is Bitcoin just lagging?
What I like most about the short is that the invalidation at ATH is super clear for bears.
I'm still on team bull but what's tricky is the invalidation for bullishness is harder to determine.
Short term, sustained price action below $110k imo. Higher time frame we can dip lower, even sub $100k and still technical maintain weekly structure.
Going to be a big week.
Gn.
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