Hans Humes

[Hans Humes @hanshumes]

@GRamsey_LatAm Subtle but insightful analysis as usual, @GRamsey_LatAm

[Fox News @FoxNews]

Secretary of State Marco Rubio says rebuilding Venezuela will take more than removing Nicolás Maduro from power.

Rubio outlined a multi-step roadmap that begins with stabilizing the country, preventing further unrest and mass migration, before shifting to economic recovery, attracting investment and ultimately holding legitimate democratic elections.

He says lasting peace will require national reconciliation after more than 25 years of political division.

[Michael Paarlberg @MPaarlberg]

Of all the defenses of the Rodriguez government in Venezuela, I find this the silliest. The Left should back them because an opposition government would subjugate the country to the US and sell off the country’s wealth, ie exactly what the chavista government is currently doing.

[Trish Regan @trish_regan]

There’s a reason the Western Hemisphere is moving toward Trump.

@hanshumes credits @marcorubio with having the foresight to recognize a historic opportunity:

aligning the region with American interests and economic growth.

The Monroe Doctrine is back—and it’s just getting started.

🚨 Colombia Elects Trump-Backed 'Tigre' As Left COLLAPSES in Latin America | Trish Regan
https://t.co/WYeUjeyYCX

[Hans Humes @hanshumes]

@imdat_oner It’s the first thing I noticed. What an elegant way to solve a border dispute.

[Hans Humes @hanshumes]

@elonmusk I laughed when I read this. The humor works on a many levels.

[Hans Humes @hanshumes]

@mattmiller1973 You trying to be a smartass?

[Hans Humes @hanshumes]

@frrodriguezc @BuxtonJulia It’s a comprehensive and clear eyed study. It deserves to be top two or three!

[Delcy Rodríguez @delcyrodriguezv]

He decidido decretar mañana como Día de Júbilo Nacional, no laborable, con excepción de los trabajadores de servicios esenciales, para que nuestra juventud salga a las plazas, a los parques y a las canchas a festejar.

¡Mañana todos al gran concierto Venezuela triunfa unida!

[Hans Humes @hanshumes]

@EdwardLawrence You were informed incorrectly

[Hans Humes @hanshumes]

@Acyn Béisbol

[Brian Winter @BrazilBrian]

Today is Trump’s “VIP level” meeting with Latin American leaders — friends on ideological right

But no need to exaggerate

Trump has also in last month met Petro, invited Lula to White House and continued good collaboration with Sheinbaum as exemplified by operation against “El Mencho”

And the lovefest with Delcy

It’s been both an active and pragmatic White House in Latin America. Agree or not, they are achieving many objectives on security, migration, resources and drugs

[Hans Humes @hanshumes]

@trish_regan And you interviewed her years ago!

[Annmarie Hordern @annmarie]

Just landed in Venezuela with Energy Secretary Chris Wright. He is the highest ranking US official to visit the country since Maduro’s capture.

[Barrett Linburg @DallasAptGP]

GOV: We have a housing crisis. Prices are too high.

ME: I agree. Supply is too low.

GOV: So we have a plan. We’re going to subsidize demand.

ME: …What does that mean?

GOV: We’re going to give people money to buy houses.

ME: But there aren't enough houses.

GOV: Right. So we’ll help them bid harder.

ME: If you have 10 people fighting for 1 house, and you give them all cash... the price just goes up.

GOV: Then we’ll give them more cash.

ME: That’s not a solution. That’s inflation.

GOV: It’s "First Time Homebuyer Assistance."

ME: Okay, let’s back up. Why are houses so expensive in the first place?

GOV: Because we made them the perfect investment vehicle.

ME: How?

GOV: First, the 30-year fixed mortgage.

ME: That’s standard, right?

GOV: Only in America. In other countries, rates float. Here, you can lock in a low rate for three decades.

ME: Why would a bank take that risk? If inflation goes up, they lose money.

GOV: Banks don’t take the risk. They sell the loan to us.

ME: To the government?

GOV: To Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. We guarantee the liquidity.

ME: So the taxpayer subsidizes the risk so I can have cheap leverage?

GOV: Correct.

ME: And then I get to deduct the interest?

GOV: Only on the first $750,000 of debt.

ME: That seems... high.

GOV: It used to be a million. We trimmed it.

ME: But wait. If I rent, can I deduct my rent?

GOV: No.

ME: If I buy a small business, can I deduct the interest on the loan?

GOV: It’s complicated.

ME: But if I buy a giant house, I definitely can?

GOV: Absolutely. We wrote it into the tax code.

ME: So you’re paying me to borrow money to buy a bigger house than I need.

GOV: We’re "incentivizing ownership."

ME: What happens when I sell?

GOV: The Capital Gains Exclusion!

ME: How does that work?

GOV: If you sell a stock for a $500,000 profit, you pay taxes.

ME: Roughly 20%.

GOV: If you sell your house for a $500,000 profit?

ME: What do I pay?

GOV: Zero.

ME: Zero tax?

GOV: As long as you lived there for two years.

ME: So housing is the only asset class where I get subsidized 30-year leverage and tax-free profits?

GOV: Pretty sweet deal, right?

ME: So you turned shelter into a speculative financial asset.

GOV: We call it "Generational Wealth."

ME: Okay, so demand is juiced to the moon. Can we at least build more supply to bring prices down?

GOV: Oh, absolutely not.

ME: Why?

GOV: Zoning.

ME: I own land. Can I build a duplex?

GOV: Illegal. Single-family only.

ME: Can I build a granny flat?

GOV: Only if you provide two parking spots and pass a shadow study.

ME: So you made it illegal to build cheaper housing?

GOV: We protect "Neighborhood Character."

ME: But you spend billions on roads and utilities for the suburbs.

GOV: Infrastructure investment.

ME: So you subsidize the expensive sprawl, but ban the cheap density?

GOV: Now you’re getting it.

ME: This system seems designed to keep prices high.

GOV: It is.

ME: But you started this conversation by saying we have an "Affordability Crisis."

GOV: We do. Prices are too high!

ME: So we should lower them?

GOV: No! We can’t lower prices.

ME: Why not?

GOV: Because then the voters lose their "Generational Wealth."

ME: So we need high prices for the voters... and low prices for the buyers?

GOV: Exactly.

ME: That’s a paradox.

GOV: It’s politics.

ME: So what is your actual plan?

GOV: We’re going to give first-time buyers $25,000.

ME: Okay. I’m a seller. I list my house for $400,000.

GOV: Uh huh.

ME: I know every buyer just got a free $25,000 from the government.

GOV: Right.

ME: What do I do?

GOV: You... keep the price the same?

ME: I raise the price to $425,000.

GOV: You wouldn't.

ME: I absolutely would. The buyer can afford it now.

GOV: But that just transfers the subsidy from the poor buyer to the rich seller!

ME: Econ 101.

GOV: We don’t think that will happen.

ME: Just like you didn’t think $7,500 EV credits would make Ford raise the price of the F-150 Lightning by exactly $7,500?

GOV: That was a coincidence.

ME: You are trapping us in a box.

GOV: It’s not a box.

ME: What is it?

GOV: It’s a Single Family Home with a 2.5% mortgage rate that you can never afford to sell.

ME: ...

GOV: Welcome to the American Dream.

[Caracas Chronicles @CaracasChron]

Advice from intelligence analyst @DanielBlancoPaz to produce diligent reports:

▪️ Stick to the facts
▪️ Keep up with the domestic context
▪️ Human contacts always beat open sources

More essentials for analysing the US–Venezuela conflict👇 https://t.co/KM7AVuAaVY

[Hans Humes @hanshumes]

@LauraLoomer @genesimmons Two icons

[Caracas Chronicles @CaracasChron]

🫓 In 20 years, a veteran of the Great Twitterzuela War:

[Arthur MacWaters @ArthurMacwaters]

People don't realize at the deepest trough of tesla and SpaceX, Elon had put all $100m from paypal into the companies and was sleeping for weeks at the factory

he was literally borrowing money from friends for rent

he deserves every single cent of his $500b. Nobody else has this risk tolerance