Aaron Stein @hapaboy - Twitter Profile

Aaron Stein

@hapaboy

over 1 year ago

@RoyaleAPI @ClashRoyale best deck with no evolutions

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hapaboy retweeted

Stack Hodler

@stackhodler

almost 2 years ago

"Superintelligence is within reach." If this is true, you could have just years to enjoy the world as it currently exists. Soak it in. Do that thing you've always wanted to do. How much did the trench-dwelling soldier of WW1 wish he could relive the halcyon days of pre-war Europe? Do future you a favor and eliminate the biggest regrets you may have. For the first time, humans could become the second most intelligent species on the planet. Creating a superintelligence means handing over our control to something far smarter than ourselves. Just as every other species is here by our good graces... So too will we survive if and only if the superintelligence deems it appropriate. That may sound absurd. But there's nothing that physically prevents it. It's possible, and some even say likely by 2030. And when it arrives, our entire economic system is obsolete. Since it's coming either way (every great power is in a race to make it happen) let's focus on the most optimistic outcome: Billions of brilliant virtual workers will solve the most critical engineering problems we face. They will invent new materials and unlock abundant energy. They will create software that enables general-purpose robots. They'll invent flawless self-driving vehicles to transport materials. Or maybe they will synthesize materials where they're needed instead of transporting them? Robots will eventually self-replicate to create a workforce of billions that are willing to work around the clock at the equivalent of $1 dollar an hour. They will rapidly rewire our electrical grid to support their aims. Or perhaps invent a new form of wireless, distributed energy. With mental work done far cheaper and more brilliantly than any white collar worker, and with billions of cheap laborers doing the physical work... Humans labor as a means of survival will suddenly seem barbaric. Your grandchildren will view human labor the same way we view child labor or slavery. This terrifies many people. "People need work to be happy!" And that's partially true. Many a wealthy person, lottery winner, and retiree has faced an existential crisis after they no longer had to work. But consider children. They find joy just by playing with their friends, staring at clouds, running around, and spending time with family. It isn't until they enter the school system that they begin to base their happiness on climbing a ladder, seeking external praise via grades, and focusing on their relative standing amongst their peers. In other words, we have all been conditioned to seek happiness in the external. But that's merely a byproduct of a world of scarcity where human competition determines access to resources. It's a matter of mindset and personal philosophy. With basic needs covered, the biggest challenge most humans will face will be how to survive the transition without falling into despair and depression. Someone who was conditioned to value themselves based on their work may feel "useless" - but someone who values themselves based on how good of a friend, father, lover, they are could thrive. In terms of investing and business... How will businesses compete with a superintelligence? How will a business maintain profits if everyone has access to nearly unlimited intelligence, labor, etc.? If anyone can tell the magic genie: "make me an e-commerce brand that provides me $10 million per year in post-tax income" And then have a virtual army of workers outperform even the most skilled human entrepreneurs to make that happen... What business has a durable moat in that world? Any profit will be immediately targeted and competed away. Investing in equities becomes a very difficult proposition. Almost everything will be abundant, but there will still be desirable things that are scarce: - Your own time - Waterfront real estate - Access to pristine nature - Bottles of La Tâche Grand cru And finite #Bitcoin To the extent that we still need to store value to determine who has access to those scarce things, the most logical idea is to store it in the scarcest, most predictable monetary asset possible. And for now that is undeniably Bitcoin. Nearly everything else will be increasingly abundant compared to finite Bitcoin. But how will people get Bitcoin? There will still be things that only humans can do. Human touch, in-person conversation, experiences, sports, human entertainment like standup comedy, etc. "Hand made" products could also maintain an appeal for a while because of their relative scarcity and wabi-sabi compared to mass-produced items. The people who still desire rare luxuries, such as a bottle of DRC, will have opportunities to earn Bitcoin. We are already in the early stages of this world. Technology has already given us a level of abundance and wealth that people 100 years ago would have dreamed of. The fiat world is designed to transfer these gains to the money-printing class... But those who have already adopted #Bitcoin as their savings technology have watched their purchasing power and control over their time increase. Anyone can opt into this superior system at anytime. Bitcoin gives you more time. It makes every desirable good more affordable. It makes basics like food seem abundant. In other words, Bitcoin lets you live in the future, today.