Negs

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[Negs @hardboilednegs]

Why Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran are impervious to the West's obsession with “decapitation strikes.”

A brief explanation...

[Negs @hardboilednegs]

@BasedGotz The anime resuscitated the game so hard… they should just change the art style to include anime characters in the sequel. And let Japanese writers takeover the narrative from the girl bosses and libtards at CDPR.

[Negs @hardboilednegs]

@H4nsSprungfeld @kiritonervegear It’s 2026?!? I thought we were still in 2023

[Negs @hardboilednegs]

@kiritonervegear Thanks Kazuto. Good to see you :D

[Negs @hardboilednegs]

@kiritonervegear This is going to be me if I don’t make the November Circle

[Negs @hardboilednegs]

@Ougi_stare Thanks for the welcome back on the other post, my friend! I'm curious, what's your position on AI btw? Doomer, Luddite,Technoptimist, Skeptic? Does RSI take off or nah

[Negs @hardboilednegs]

@BasedGotz Happy Tuesday Gotz!! It looks like I'm back in this hellscape we call X.

[Negs @hardboilednegs]

@PunishedMakz Wifeguy discourse circa 2027

"She might not be a virgin. She might have HIV. She might cheat on you with your father and smoke meth. Look, bro, she might try to ACK you in your sleep and harvest your organs, but you still need to put a ring on it so we can save da West."

[Negs @hardboilednegs]

Something I’ve often mentioned, Communism seemed so irrational in the 1980’s and 1990’s… people forget why it flourished to begin with. In contrast, the Industrial Revolution and the alienation with urbanization and poor working conditions in the 1800’s made it seem almost inevitable.

The fact is, that cozy American post-war era (1950’s to 1990’s) was probably the historic aberration in advanced technological society. We’re returning to the norm.

[Negs @hardboilednegs]

Humans are social animals, and our identity is defined in relation to the Other. In reality, there’s a different Gotz w/ his online oomfs, his boss, his parents & his irl friends. None are the “real” Gotz. None are more authentic than any other. But it’s good to know which resonates with who you’d like to be the most, and try to mold the others to be more like him (you).

[☦️ Makz 🇮🇷 @PunishedMakz]

What terrifies me is if Israel were to justify a mass invasion of Moroccans into Spain on anti-colonial grounds. Imagine the damage to Israel's geopolitical position?

[Seldon @seld_on]

I wasn't expecting to be proven right this quickly

This was only three days ago

[Hamidreza Azizi @HamidRezaAz]

#Iran’s Lebanon Dilemma: Has Tehran Abandoned Hezbollah?

🔹The massive Israeli strikes in Lebanon – coming less than a day after the U.S.-Iran ceasefire announcement – have injected immediate uncertainty into planned negotiations in Islamabad. From Tehran’s perspective, any ceasefire that excludes Lebanon is fundamentally incomplete and unacceptable.

🔹Iranian officials have consistently emphasized that, based on understandings reached through Pakistani mediation, the ceasefire was supposed to be regional in scope. The exclusion of Lebanon is therefore not seen as a technical oversight, but as a political shift.

🔹In Tehran’s reading, that shift reflects a deliberate decision by Donald Trump to align more closely with Israeli priorities following consultations with Benjamin Netanyahu.

🔹This has already reinforced a long-standing concern in Iran, i.e., the unreliability of U.S. commitments. Entering negotiations under these conditions is seen as strategically risky and politically costly.

🔹At the same time, Iran has drawn a firm red line. It has made clear that it will not participate in negotiations while Israeli strikes against Hezbollah continue. A reduction in the tempo of attacks is not sufficient, and Tehran is demanding a complete halt.

🔹This position reflects deeper structural pressures – both regional and domestic – that constrain Iran’s room for maneuver.

🔹In Iran, analysts increasingly interpret the situation as a calculated strategy by Washington and Tel Aviv to push Iran into a lose-lose scenario.

🔹If Iran escalates militarily in response to Israeli actions, it risks being blamed, especially domestically, for breaking the ceasefire. This is particularly sensitive given widespread public fatigue with war.

🔹A significant portion of the Iranian population, while not necessarily supportive of the regime, welcomed the ceasefire as a pathway toward stability. Renewed escalation could therefore trigger public backlash.

🔹This is compounded by an existing perception among many Iranians that the government invests heavily in regional conflicts, particularly in Lebanon and Gaza, at the expense of domestic priorities.

🔹In such a context, any Iranian military response could be framed internally not as national defense, but as a war fought on behalf of external actors. This interpretation that carries serious political risks.

🔹At the same time, restraint is not cost-free. Failing to respond risks alienating the Islamic Republic’s core ideological base, which has significant sympathy toward Hezbollah and expects tangible action.

🔹These constituencies – though smaller – are highly organized and politically significant. Their frustration with perceived inaction is already visible.

🔹As a result, Tehran finds itself navigating between two competing domestic pressures: a war-weary public on one side, and a mobilized ideological base on the other.

🔹Iran’s current approach reflects an attempt to balance these pressures. Rather than escalating directly, it is combining diplomatic maneuvering with indirect forms of pressure.

🔹On the diplomatic front, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has engaged regional and European counterparts, emphasizing the need for a comprehensive, region-wide ceasefire.

🔹At the same time, Iran has avoided direct military escalation against Israel and instead turned to its most critical leverage point, namely the Strait of Hormuz. The aim is to push the U.S. to constrain Israel.

🔹Despite expectations that maritime traffic would return to normal after the ceasefire, only a handful of ships passed since yesterday, indicating a deliberate effort to sustain pressure.

🔹From the perspective of some Iranian analysts, this form of economic and maritime pressure is more strategically valuable than missile retaliation. There is a growing view that limited missile strikes against Israel would achieve little beyond signaling solidarity, and could even play into Israel’s hands.

🔹The argument here is that Israel may actually prefer continued escalation, and that its demonstrated resilience in absorbing Iranian strikes has exposed the limits of Iran’s long-range missile deterrence. This has shifted the debate within Iran. The question is no longer whether to respond, but how.

🔹One camp argues that Iran could resume direct strikes against Israel while maintaining the ceasefire with the United States, effectively decoupling the two fronts.

🔹In this scenario, Washington – if genuinely interested in de-escalation – might tolerate limited Iran-Israel confrontation, allowing negotiations to proceed in parallel. Proponents see this as advantageous: it would sideline the United States and allow Iran to confront Israel directly.

🔹The opposing camp is more skeptical. They argue that even without direct U.S. offensive involvement, Washington would continue to provide Israel with logistical, defensive, and intelligence support. From this perspective, the idea of U.S. disengagement is largely illusory.

🔹Moreover, restricting the conflict to Iran and Israel would reduce Iran’s strategic flexibility. Tehran’s most effective leverage has come from its ability to target U.S. interests across the region, not just Israel itself.

🔹This creates a stark strategic dilemma: either escalate broadly, including against U.S. interests, or maintain the ceasefire and pursue diplomacy.

🔹Beyond these immediate tactical debates, Iranian analysts are increasingly focused on two broader strategic concerns.

🔹The first is reputational. Failure to support Hezbollah risks undermining the principle of mutual support that underpins Iran’s regional network.

🔹If Tehran does not act, allies in Iraq, Yemen, and elsewhere may begin to question whether the costs of supporting Iran are reciprocated. Such a shift would weaken Iran’s deterrence posture and erode its influence across the “axis of resistance.”

🔹The second concern is structural: the future balance of power in the region.

🔹Iran appears to view the current moment as a rare opportunity to reshape that balance, particularly through its leverage in the Persian Gulf.

🔹From this perspective, continued Israeli operations in Lebanon are not just tactical, but they are strategic moves aimed at fragmenting Iran’s regional network.

🔹By isolating and pressuring individual nodes like Hezbollah, Israel may be attempting to prevent coordinated, multi-front responses. Over time, this could create a new strategic reality in which Iran’s allies are weakened sequentially, leaving Tehran itself more exposed.

🔹Iran’s objective, by contrast, is to preserve its model of collective deterrence, in the sense that any attack on one actor should trigger a broader regional response.

🔹This logic explains Tehran’s insistence on including Lebanon in the ceasefire. For Iran, this is not a secondary issue, but central to preserving its regional architecture.

🔹Ultimately, the current crisis is being interpreted in Tehran as both a tactical challenge and a strategic inflection point.

🔹How Iran navigates this moment – balancing domestic pressures, alliance commitments, and great-power dynamics – will shape not only the fate of the negotiations, but probably also the contours of future of the future regional order.

[Negs @hardboilednegs]

@PunishedMakz I always thought groupchat theory was a bunch of nonsense until I witnessed rightoid anons with names like Kaiser von Larper-gramm write desperate copypasta to run cover for the most milquetoast centrist and corrupt GOP politicans of all time pretending they're /ourguy/

[AgNONsis @aGnonSIS]

Usually, it's not a great sign when you're announcing you'll redirect the entire national economy to focus on the war effort, announce cuts to popular social programs to fund the war, fire your generals, purge your inner circle, and threaten to double down on killing civilians.

[Negs @hardboilednegs]

@PunishedMakz Have you planted a fruit tree yet this year, Makz?
By the Ayatollah's will it must be done.

[Negs @hardboilednegs]

@EyePilled Waow. idk if you know, but when you summon an NPC it increases the bosses health. So you beat an extra hard Rom.

[MisteerSawito @Vrijmanstaat101]

The American mind has natural alergic reaction to Clausewitzian ideas. If you try to talk to them about any strategic and political goal, their mind simply turned into mush and began mumbling "muh KD ratio, muh undefeated F-15".