Harsha Fernando @harshafdo - Twitter Profile

Harsha Fernando @harshafdo

about 2 months ago

https://t.co/6xLo3krZtS

Crazy Moments

@Crazymoments01

2 months ago

A young boy fed a family of stray dogs, until the mother dog raised her paws in a gesture of gratitude.

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Harsha Fernando @harshafdo

2 months ago

@DrBukkabwoi Out going and incoming both a minute was more than 20 Rupees at the beginning

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Harsha Fernando @harshafdo

5 months ago

@alisabrypc Congratulations and all the very best wishes

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Harsha Fernando @harshafdo

6 months ago

Listen to this song my friend Gihan wrote for his daughter on her birthday https://t.co/4nNen1ea6I

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Who to follow

Capital Trust Securities

@CapitalTrustRe

Established as the Research arm of the Capital TRUST Holdings Group

Equity with Dilu

@EquitywithDilu

Beneath the surface. Beyond the spotlight. Exploring the heart of Sri Lanka’s corporate world.

Colombo Stock Exchange

@CSE_Media

#CSE is the licensed operator of the stock market in #SriLanka. Member of @TheWFE @SSEinitiative. Follow the page for official updates. #InvestSriLanka #lka

Harsha Fernando @harshafdo

9 months ago

@shanaka86 Super analysis

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harshafdo retweeted

Talal Rafi

@talalrafi7

over 1 year ago · Sri Lanka

Can Sri Lanka avoid borrowing from international bondholders in the coming years? Let me answer. Sri Lanka coming out of default status is positive news. This means we can gradually start borrowing once again from ISB bondholders when most external debt payments come due in 2028. Many Sri Lankans may ask why again we should borrow from bondholders? Isn't this bad? Let me explain as simply as possible. It would be great if we never had to borrow from international capital markets. But Sri Lanka does not have a choice. In 2022, the external gross financing needs of the Sri Lankan government was over 9% of GDP. Gross financing needs is interest payments plus principle payments due for a year. That was close to $8 billion in 2022. What Sri Lanka has been doing is rolling over debt. That is borrowing to repay the maturing debt and in many cases the interest also. Till 2028, Sri Lanka is fine as most foreign currency debt repayments are not due. But after 2028, we have to pay back maturing debt and interest payments. So Sri Lanka cannot do this without borrowing further. Even now, with import restrictions on vehicles, we still run a trade deficit and we are barely managing our current account largely thanks to tourism income and remittances. So if we stop borrowing, where will be get the $8 billion (2022 figure) of external gross financing needs to pay for. If we do not borrow externally in 2028, we will either default in 2028 or we will have to cut down our imports drastically. Reducing imports by close to half will collapse the economy. Do we have any other ways, other than borrowing from bondholders in 2028? As Sri Lanka is a middle income country, aid from other nations is tougher to get. World Bank and ADB lending is also lower and at the same time, whatever we repay to the WB/ADB, we borrow again so there is no room there. No bilateral is going to lend around $8 billion a year for consecutive years. So only option is going back to the international capital markets. But is this sustainable? No, it is not. We cannot always continue borrowing from bondholders as Sri Lanka's borrowing costs are very high. We will eventually default again. What is the solution? Export oriented economy and a push to attract foreign direct investments. Focusing on boosting our tradable sectors in which Sri Lanka has a comparative advantage would be the best option. Liberalising trade and joining regional and bilateral FTAs will help Sri Lanka attract opportunities to supply global value chains. 70% of global trade is supplying global supply chains of multinational companies. Also, focus on attracting FDI by improving ease of doing business and reducing corruption. Sri Lanka has a lower savings rate so we need foreign investments to expand many productive sectors in Sri Lanka. If we can expand our exports and attract investments and keep fiscal discipline, we can eventually by the 2030s drastically reduce borrowing from bondholders and come out of it totally. I don't think we can grow our exports before 2028, to stop borrowings from capital markets as 3 years is too short a time but if we can have a focused strategy and keep transforming into an export oriented economy, gradually by the 2030s we can reduce. For now, the government needs to focus on it's export strategy. Also it's important that we have good fiscal discipline so that we move up on our credit ratings so when we restart borrowing from international capital markets, our borrowing costs will be much reduced. As I explained, it is not the fault of the current NPP govt if we continue to borrow from bondholders as new borrowings are to pay for past debt. Same situation that was faced by the Yahapalana government also. But Sri Lanka coming out of selective default is positive news. Hope the government can focus on expanding exports, attracting investments, fiscal and monetary discipline and the much needed structural reforms.

talalrafi7's tweet photo. Can Sri Lanka avoid borrowing from international bondholders in the coming years? Let me answer.

Sri Lanka coming out of default status is positive news. This means we can gradually start borrowing once again from ISB bondholders when most external debt payments come due in 2028. Many Sri Lankans may ask why again we should borrow from bondholders? Isn't this bad? Let me explain as simply as possible.

It would be great if we never had to borrow from international capital markets. But Sri Lanka does not have a choice.

In 2022, the external gross financing needs of the Sri Lankan government was over 9% of GDP. Gross financing needs is interest payments plus principle payments due for a year. That was close to $8 billion in 2022.

What Sri Lanka has been doing is rolling over debt. That is borrowing to repay the maturing debt and in many cases the interest also. Till 2028, Sri Lanka is fine as most foreign currency debt repayments are not due. But after 2028, we have to pay back maturing debt and interest payments. So Sri Lanka cannot do this without borrowing further.

Even now, with import restrictions on vehicles, we still run a trade deficit and we are barely managing our current account largely thanks to tourism income and remittances. So if we stop borrowing, where will be get the $8 billion (2022 figure) of external gross financing needs to pay for.

If we do not borrow externally in 2028, we will either default in 2028 or we will have to cut down our imports drastically. Reducing imports by close to half will collapse the economy.

Do we have any other ways, other than borrowing from bondholders in 2028? As Sri Lanka is a middle income country, aid from other nations is tougher to get. World Bank and ADB lending is also lower and at the same time, whatever we repay to the WB/ADB, we borrow again so there is no room there. No bilateral is going to lend around $8 billion a year for consecutive years.

So only option is going back to the international capital markets.

But is this sustainable? No, it is not. We cannot always continue borrowing from bondholders as Sri Lanka's borrowing costs are very high. We will eventually default again. What is the solution?

Export oriented economy and a push to attract foreign direct investments. Focusing on boosting our tradable sectors in which Sri Lanka has a comparative advantage would be the best option. Liberalising trade and joining regional and bilateral FTAs will help Sri Lanka attract opportunities to supply global value chains. 70% of global trade is supplying global supply chains of multinational companies. Also, focus on attracting FDI by improving ease of doing business and reducing corruption. Sri Lanka has a lower savings rate so we need foreign investments to expand many productive sectors in Sri Lanka. If we can expand our exports and attract investments and keep fiscal discipline, we can eventually by the 2030s drastically reduce borrowing from bondholders and come out of it totally.

I don't think we can grow our exports before 2028, to stop borrowings from capital markets as 3 years is too short a time but if we can have a focused strategy and keep transforming into an export oriented economy, gradually by the 2030s we can reduce.

For now, the government needs to focus on it's export strategy. Also it's important that we have good fiscal discipline so that we move up on our credit ratings so when we restart borrowing from international capital markets, our borrowing costs will be much reduced.

As I explained, it is not the fault of the current NPP govt if we continue to borrow from bondholders as new borrowings are to pay for past debt. Same situation that was faced by the Yahapalana government also.

But Sri Lanka coming out of selective default is positive news. Hope the government can focus on expanding exports, attracting investments, fiscal and monetary discipline and the much needed structural reforms.

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Harsha Fernando @harshafdo

over 1 year ago

Sri Lanka gains extensive support from private creditors to restructure its international bonds, a key step for the country to exit an extended default https://t.co/CnqxS4Fj3u via @markets

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Harsha Fernando @harshafdo

over 1 year ago

Everyone please follow me on Bluesky https://t.co/cdWonPIzWZ

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harshafdo retweeted

Numbers.lk

@numberslka

almost 2 years ago

🇱🇰 Presidential Debate 2024: organized by March 12 Movement ⭕ RW - formally declined invitation ⭕ AKD - Informed he wouldn’t be joining ⭕ P. Ariyanethiran – Confirmed participation but later informed he wouldn’t show up ⭕ Sajith Premadasa confirmed but didn't show up ⭕ Namal Rajapaksa showed up but refused to participate due to SP’s absence ⭕ Dilith Jayaweera attended as promised and participated. 👏👏 ⭕ Leadership demands respect for commitments, not ghosting key events! Sajith lost a lot of marks for basic decency today. ⭕For Sri Lanka 🇱🇰 to embrace a new political culture, it is essential to have honest debates, the exchange of ideas, and opportunities for voters to compare candidates side by side. When candidates refuse to participate or fail to show up to debates, it indicates a lack of genuine commitment to the change Sri Lanka need. #SriLanka #PresPolls2024